Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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481 FXUS63 KTOP 180806 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 306 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening with a small risk for severe winds. - There is greater severe weather potential late Sunday afternoon and evening. - Thunderstorm chances continue into Tuesday night. - Warm temperatures continue until mid-week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Recent water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough sliding east across eastern Montana with an associated cold front subjectively analyzed from eastern North Dakota south-southwest into western Nebraska. This front continues southeast into eastern Kansas today with modest convergence along it. With another warm a day in good insolation and dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s, little convective inhibition should be present along the front in the mid to late afternoon. Most CAMs show at least isolated thunderstorm development in eastern Kansas, slowly spreading southeast with time. With deep-layer shear less than 25 knots, pulse storms are expected with MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg and downdraft CAPE around 1200 J/kg supporting a downburst wind concern. This activity should diminish soon after sunset. Still appears northern areas could get precipitation from an MCS as it moves east-northeast out of northwest Kansas overnight though MUCAPE less than 1000 J/kg and a modest low-level jet should keep severe weather in check. Models coming into somewhat better agreement with the severe weather potential for Sunday afternoon and evening. Convection forms in western Kansas in the mid to late afternoon along a dryline as a subtle upper wave moves through. This convection grows upscale to a fairly linear form as it progresses east, supported by MUCAPE around 1500 J/kg and a moderate low-level jet. Severe winds may again be the main concern with large and perhaps a few brief QLCS tornadoes possible. With much of the day expected to be dry, a warm and breezy Sunday is anticipated. Southerly winds should return to most locations Monday though mid- level warming brings the potential for persistent low cloud but likely limited daytime thunderstorm activity. The main concern likely depends on upstream convection though little in way of forcing for ascent is apparent. Steepening mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE around 2000 J/kg would bring severe weather concern Monday night into early Tuesday if storms can maintain themselves this far southeast. Tuesday afternoon and evening bring stronger forcing from a strong jet max pushing a shortwave as associated cold front through Kansas. Capping will again be present but at least scattered thunderstorms are anticipated with a severe weather concern with around 2500 J/kg of pre-frontal MLCAPE. An overall more tranquil period should come late Tuesday night through Thursday with Pacific surface high pressure moving through and the effective surface front south of Oklahoma. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1242 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 VFR conditions will be the rule. A weak cold front moves through the terminals after 20Z bringing veering winds and some chance for convection. Chances for TSRA impacts are currently too low for a mention. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Poage AVIATION...Poage