Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 031136

National Weather Service Topeka KS
536 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

Upper trough axis was moving across eastern Kansas this morning at
08Z while last area of light snow or flurries was exiting east
central Kansas. Clouds will continue over the area through the
morning hours before diminishing during the afternoon hours.
Pressure gradient will remain tight this morning keeping winds gusty
through the morning hours then decrease gradually through the
afternoon hours as the gradient relaxes with broad high pressure
building into eastern Kansas. Cold advection will continue through
the day with highs ranging from the upper 20s to middle 30s.

Tonight, skies clear with winds becoming light from the west. Weak
warm advection in the mid levels may bring a slight increase in
clouds across the northern counties after midnight. Lows tonight
will expected to range from the lower teens in far northwest
Republic county to the lower 20s southeast of Interstate 35.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

The upper-level longwave trough axis will be just east of Kansas
Thursday pushing into the Ohio/Tennessee Valley by Thursday night.
At the surface, high pressure will build in over western Kansas
allowing for clear skies and temperatures warming into the mid-40s
for areas with no snow on the ground.  Any lingering snow cover in
north central Kansas will keep highs and lows cooler than other
parts of northeast Kansas.  By Friday afternoon, a pronounced
shortwave will begin to move southeast over the Central Plains. This
wave and associated weak cold front will pass through northeast
Kansas Friday night, but so far looks to bring no chances for
precipitation.  The weekend is on track to be dry and mild with
temperatures reaching into the upper-40s and low 50s. Models
indicate another front will move through eastern Kansas on Sunday.
Right now, the better chances for any precipitation with this
deepening trough are on Monday in far northeast Kansas.  From here,
there is no sensible weather to speak of.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 536 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

MVFR cigs at terminals will transition to VFR around 14Z-15Z at
MHK and around 17Z-19Z at TOP and FOE. During the transition
period cigs may bounce between the vfr and mvfr categories. Winds
will continue out of the northwest around 16kts with gusts to
near 30 kts through 17Z then decrease to around 14kts before
backing to the west northwest around 7kts around 00Z.


.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Heller
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