Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 170446
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1146 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Recent water vapor imagery shows a modest upper level jet in the
west-northwest flow from the Pacific Northwest into central Wyoming
with scattered cirrus ahead of it moving into the central Plains.
Southwest low level winds are becoming established across the latter
area as the lee trough deepens and the anticyclone exits to the
southeast. Temperatures have risen quickly in fairly dry air after
overnight warm air advection.

The weak upper jet brings a few weak waves across the area tonight
and Tuesday, bringing with them some periods of what should be
mainly scattered cirrus, but a continued dry low to mid troposphere
keeps any more significant cloud in check. Low temperatures tonight
will be warmer than this morning with stronger southwest winds,
particularly off the surface, and the dry air off the surface should
keep anything more than steam fog from forming. 850-925mb
temperature trends support highs Tuesday a few degrees warmer than
today.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

A northwest flow aloft is forecast to continue through Thursday,
which will bring a continuation of dry weather and seasonable
temperatures to northeast Kansas. A mid level trough is forecast to
move over the Rockies and into the Plains Friday night and Saturday.
Moisture return increases Friday across north central and northeast
Kansas. Some elevated showers and thunderstorms are possible late
Friday night across north central Kansas within the leading edge of
the 50 kt low level jet. Isentropic lift along with some energy
ejecting out across north central Kansas will also contribute to the
potential for precipitation late Friday night and early Saturday
morning. The GFS and the ECMWF along with the GEM move the cold
front through northeast Kansas Saturday and Saturday night. This
will bring the best chance for precipitation to the area. Steepening
mid level lapse rates with the approach of the upper trough and
ample moisture and 30 to 40 kts of shear should contribute to a few
strong storms as they move across northeast and east central Kansas.
behind the front will continue a chance for showers Saturday night
until the passage of the mid level trough axis. Sunday and Monday
looking dry with a return to dry northwest flow aloft. Highs in the
70s most of the period except for Sunday where highs in the 60s will
be common.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours at all terminals. A
southwesterly low-level jet will increase to 30-35 KTS about 500
feet off the surface after 6Z TUE. Winds at the surface will
decrease below 7 KTS and there may be strong windshear 500 to 700
feet above the surface through 13Z TUE.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Gargan


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