176
FXUS63 KTOP 060510
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1210 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold front moves through tonight bringing drier, more
  comfortable weather for tomorrow.

- Rain chances increase Friday night through Saturday, some
  heavy rain will be possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Looking at satellite this afternoon, the shortwave associated with
yesterday`s weather has moved out of the area, and the entire area
is enjoying clear skies. Temperatures are currently in the mid-80s,
and are expected to approach 90 towards the peak heat of the day. No
changes to the forecast were made for today or tonight.

Right now, a cold front is beginning to materialize over portions of
central Nebraska, and will move to the south during the afternoon.
The cold front should move through the area between 10 PM and 4 AM.
There is a non-zero chance for an isolated shower or two along the
front, but not enough to warrant including any chance of rain in the
forecast.

The front is not too strong, but should keep tomorrow`s high
temperatures in the mid-80s. Skies will be clear and another
pleasant day is on tap, with a northerly breeze gusting up to 20 mph.

Going into Friday, a strong 850 hPa jet will advect moisture into
the area. Eastern KS will be in the right entrance region of a
developing 200 hPa jet. This, combined with isentropic ascent and
strong warm air advection will promote rising air overnight on
Friday. The surface boundary will remain to the south of the area,
so all convection would be elevated. The WPC has the area in a
Slight Risk of excessive rainfall, and with PWAT values approaching
2", some heavy rain will be possible, especially south of the I-70
corridor. The general timeframe for the heaviest rain would be from
6 PM Friday night through 6 AM Saturday morning.

Additionally, steep lapse rates above the frontal inversion will
support strong elevated instability, which could lead to a severe
hail risk. The GFS has around 1000 J/Kg of MUCAPE, while the NAM has
over 2000 J/Kg in some areas overnight. As of now, there is no SPC
risk in effect, but it is worth keeping an eye on.

During the morning on Saturday, the upper level front will push to
the south, which will focus the effects of the LLJ further south in
OK/AR. The rain should decrease across the area during the day, and
northerly winds combined with saturated ground will keep
temperatures around 80.

Depending on where exactly the stationary boundary ends up, southern
portions of the area could see more showers overnight Saturday. A
small amplitude shortwave will likely stay across southern Kansas
into Oklahoma, but can`t rule out some showers in our area. Included
small POPs just in case.

Ridging is likely to build back into the area Sunday and Monday. A
cutoff low currently off the coast of Mexico will begin to meander
towards the CONUS, lowering predictability into next week. As a
result, I did not make any changes to the guidance past this
weekend. Rain chances will return to the area Tuesday, when the GFS
brings the aforementioned closed low towards the TX/OK panhandles.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

VFR at terminals as the fropa shifts winds to the northwest
just below 10 kts. Mid level clouds increase behind the boundary
with consistency amongst guidance of scattered showers and
isolated TSRA developing in the 12Z-15Z time frame. Coverage is
high enough to mention in a Tempo group at KMHK, but opted to
wait and monitor at KTOP/KFOE.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Prieto