Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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421 FXUS64 KTSA 200525 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1225 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 821 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Severe thunderstorms currently across northwest Oklahoma are expected to congeal over the next hour or so as they move into north-central Oklahoma. This activity will likely continue to be severe as it moves into Osage and Pawnee counties before weakening as it moves into a less favorable environment in place across the remainder of the area. Wind gusts to around 70 mph will be the main concern as storms move into the region late this evening. Made some minor adjustments to the forecast for tonight to reflect the latest trends in observations and short-term guidance. Otherwise, current forecast for tonight is on track. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Sunday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 The dryline likely stays capped on Monday, so the main focus for storms will be the front across KS, and this activity should remain north of the state line thru Monday night. Focus then turns to Tuesday and Wednesday, the days which appear to have the greatest severe potential this week. The system off the coast of SoCal/Baja will be ejecting into the central Plains Tuesday afternoon and evening, optimally timed with max diurnal heating. At the surface, a cold front will be approaching from the north and a dryline will be mixing farther east closer to the I-35 corridor. Mid level temps will be warm, but the glancing influence from the upper wave should weaken the cap enough to allow for at least isolated storm development north of I-40 Tuesday afternoon. With H5 flow expected to be greater than 50kts, deep layer shear should be plenty strong for supercells. The initiation zone will be closer to our area, so any cells that develop will be maturing as they move across E OK and possibly into NW AR and will be capable of producing higher-end severe weather. Low level shear will increase by evening, increasing the tornado threat with any ongoing discrete cells. Storms will also begin to develop along the front across NE OK during the evening, though these storms will be more multicell and linear, and not as high of a severe threat as they spread southeast Tuesday night. The slowly sagging front will be the focus for more storms on Wednesday as the airmass destabilizes with daytime heating, mainly to the south and east of I-44. A severe wind/hail threat will continue with these storms as they track southeast. The front never really clears our area, meanders over the region and interacts with the next wave to produce another round of storms Wednesday night into Thursday. It is during this time when severe threat maybe wanes a bit and locally heavy rainfall and flooding threat increases. We may get a break in the action for much of Friday before storm chances increase toward next Sunday with the next system moving across the central Plains. Lacy && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Decaying cluster of thunderstorms will continue over northeast OK, with some re-generation of cells possible early in the forecast period. Still could see strong gusty winds at KBVO/KTUL/KRVS associated with any storm. Most likely, any storms should dissipate before reaching northwest AR. Aside form that, VFR conditions will prevail with gusty south winds from mid- morning until around sunset Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 74 88 64 80 / 0 20 50 30 FSM 70 90 71 84 / 0 0 40 70 MLC 72 86 71 81 / 0 10 30 60 BVO 70 89 60 78 / 0 20 50 20 FYV 69 89 67 80 / 0 10 50 60 BYV 69 89 68 80 / 0 10 50 60 MKO 72 88 68 79 / 0 10 50 50 MIO 71 88 61 78 / 0 20 60 30 F10 72 87 67 79 / 0 20 40 40 HHW 70 85 73 83 / 0 0 20 60 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...14