Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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215 FXUS64 KTSA 241924 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 224 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 220 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Cold front currently near a Tulsa to Ardmore line and making slow but steady progress eastward. Conditions have become increasingly unstable ahead of the front through the day and minimal inhibition remains supporting short term guidance of storm initiation along the front during the mid afternoon hours. Shear will support supercell mode, especially south of Interstate 40, with limited low level shear and mostly straight and elongated hodographs supportive of aggressive splitting supercells capable of very large hail. Scattered severe storms are likely to persist will into the evening before a gradual decrease in intensity and coverage by late evening as the front continues its slow southeastward progress. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Friday) Issued at 220 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Warm sector quickly recovers during the day Saturday with data remaining consistent in a broad fetch of a strongly unstable and deeply sheared airmass overspreading much of the Southern Plains by late afternoon. The approaching shortwave trough and associated wind fields are all within the classic configuration supporting a significant severe weather event from late Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. The higher storm coverage will focus north of the local region along the sfc low track and warm frontal zone. Further south along the dryline through OK storm coverage remains more uncertain, however confidence remains high in at least isolated to scattered supercells initiating along the dryline through central OK and spreading into E OK during the evening hours. The background environment supports significant severe weather potential and weather conditions should be followed closely from trusted weather sources Saturday evening into the overnight hours. The cold front associated with the passing wave lags to the west and does not completely clear western AR until Sunday afternoon. The bulk of guidance keeps the frontal passage dry with only low chances of storms developing along the boundary during the day Sunday. This period will continue to monitored for higher storm potential but at this time it appears Sunday is a trend downward in the severe potential. A brief dry period Monday into Tuesday as sfc high pressure prevails. The flow aloft becomes northwesterly through the Plains by mid week and will eventually support repeated rounds of thunderstorm complexes moving through the region Wednesday into Friday. By late week the pattern likely returns to more southwesterly flow aloft and unsettled and stormy conditions persist. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 MVFR to VFR conditions prevail across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas early this afternoon. This trend will continue with scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon in advance of a cold front moving through the area. The thunderstorm activity will persist into the evening hours. Have included a TEMPO for thunder at the western AR sites and KMLC to highlight the potential late this afternoon and evening. Low clouds and fog could also create IFR conditions at the northwest Arkansas late tonight into Saturday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 60 88 72 90 / 0 0 40 0 FSM 68 90 73 90 / 50 0 20 20 MLC 65 88 72 91 / 50 0 20 10 BVO 53 87 69 88 / 0 0 40 0 FYV 60 86 69 87 / 50 0 30 20 BYV 60 86 70 87 / 50 0 30 20 MKO 62 86 72 89 / 30 0 30 10 MIO 57 85 69 86 / 10 0 50 20 F10 61 87 72 90 / 20 0 40 0 HHW 67 87 72 89 / 50 0 20 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...10