Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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613 FXUS64 KTSA 231603 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1103 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of today ) Issued at 1051 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Pronounced boundary currently extends from approximately Okmulgee to Poteau with scattered showers recently developing along this corridor. A more notable region of boundary layer recovery is ongoing across N TX and will eventually spread northward along the sharpening dryline over western OK by mid afternoon. Regarding near term forcing and possible storm development, weak but persistent warm advection atop the boundary through E OK may be sufficient to support isolated to scattered storms through the afternoon though uncertainty remains high. Further south and west, forcing is expected to be stronger and thus storm initiation chances appear higher within the stronger instability axis. As these storms develop then motions could take them into the forecast area by late afternoon into the evening hours. The background environment remains unstable and sheared both for any elevated storms and certainly for more surface based storms. This maintains a risk of severe weather through the evening with the overall idea being lesser coverage of severe potential than has occurred the last two days. Updated forecast will adjust for boundary place and resultant precip coverage trends while incorporating minor sky cover adjustments. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 357 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Showers and storms will remain possible overnight, but coverage may remain somewhat limited. A cold front will move across the area Friday afternoon and evening, with at least widely scattered storms expected to develop along this boundary by late afternoon from northwest Arkansas into southeast Oklahoma. The greatest severe weather risk during this forecast period will come late Saturday afternoon and especially Saturday evening as a strong upper level disturbance moves into the area. A very unstable airmass will be in place by late Saturday afternoon and evening, and storms that develop in central Oklahoma will quickly become severe and move into our forecast area. All severe hazards will be possible with these storms, with the severe weather threat possibly diminishing some by late evening into the overnight hours as the storms move into northwest Arkansas. A pattern change to a northwest flow aloft will take place late this weekend into next week. We will start off next week dry, but weak disturbances in the northwest flow aloft may result in daily MCS activity beginning as early as late Tuesday night and continuing for much of the rest of the week. Late night and morning will be the most likely time frame for any precipitation next week. Have kept pops low for now, but higher than the nearly non-existant NBM pops. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 601 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Cluster of showers and thunderstorms continues to move across southeast OK and west central AR, but should mostly be east of TAF locations by 12z. Temporary break in low ceilings across part of eastern OK in the wake of storms, but this should fill back in over the next couple of hours, and most locations should see MVFR ceilings into the early afternoon. Potential for additional showers and storms remains uncertain the rest of the period, but some threat should exist across eastern OK this afternoon and elsewhere through the evening. MVFR ceilings could return to at least eastern OK toward the end of the period, with LLWS developing. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 83 69 85 63 / 30 40 10 10 FSM 84 70 88 69 / 30 40 30 20 MLC 82 69 87 67 / 40 50 20 20 BVO 83 65 83 55 / 20 40 10 0 FYV 82 65 83 61 / 20 30 30 20 BYV 83 66 83 62 / 10 30 40 20 MKO 82 68 85 65 / 30 40 20 10 MIO 83 67 82 58 / 10 30 30 10 F10 81 67 85 64 / 40 40 20 10 HHW 83 68 87 68 / 30 50 30 30 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...14