695
FXUS64 KTSA 041605
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1105 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1042 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

The MCS that moved through early this morning had pushed southeast
of the CWA with high cloud cover remaining across Southeast
Oklahoma. With the southern push of the storm complex...this had
disrupted the moisture return back into the CWA...noted by
dewpoints in the 60s across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas while 70+ deg dewpoints were advecting northward across
Western/Central Oklahoma. This moisture delay has also helped to
scatter cloud cover across Northeast Oklahoma with temps in the
mid/upper 70s.

Through this afternoon...a frontal boundary...currently located
from the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles into North Central Kansas...is
progged to approach the CWA and move into Northeast Oklahoma this
evening. Ahead of the boundary...low level moisture is expected to
expand north and eastward over the CWA this afternoon with
precipitable water values approaching 2 inches by this evening.
Along with the moisture return...an increasingly unstable
atmosphere is expected to develop through the afternoon. In
response...will continue to carry slight to low end chance PoPs
for the CWA for any afternoon diurnal storm development. Any storm
development will have the potential to become strong to severe
with locally damaging wind the primary threat and hail a secondary
threat. The greater storm/severe potentials continue to be this
evening with another MCS developing along the front.

Scattered to broken cloud cover should also continue this
afternoon with temps warming into the upper 70s into low/mid 80s
ahead of the front. If low level cloud cover can expand more into
the CWA with the moisture return...then temps may need to be re
adjusted.  Will continue to monitor trends.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Another MCS is expected to develop this evening in advance of an
approaching weak frontal boundary. Given the amount of available
instability and moisture, severe storms and locally heavy
rainfall will both be likely with this MCS. Current model
consensus suggests that the greatest severe/heavy rain threat may
be mainly southeast of Interstate 44, but confidence is low on
this scenario. Another short term flood watch may be needed in
some places for this complex, but will hold off for now as
confidence is low in just where the heavy rainfall will occur.

A relatively dry period is then expected Wednesday through Friday
before an uptick in overnight/early morning MCS potential returns
Friday night through the weekend. Have upper NBM pops some and
lowered high temperatures over the weekend based on the latest
trends. Drier weather looks to return early next week with
temperatures near or a bit below the seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

The remnants of an overnight storm complex will continue to affect
mainly KFSM for the first couple hours of the forecast period.
Otherwise, MVFR ceilings are likely to develop at all sites this
morning and will likely persist much of the day. Ceilings will
then likely become VFR by early evening. Another storm complex is
likely tonight, with all sites expected to be impacted.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   84  68  88  67 /  20  90   0   0
FSM   84  70  89  67 /  30  90  20   0
MLC   85  69  88  66 /  20  80  10   0
BVO   83  65  88  63 /  30  70   0   0
FYV   81  66  85  61 /  30  80  20   0
BYV   81  66  84  63 /  40  80  20   0
MKO   84  69  88  66 /  30  90  10   0
MIO   82  66  86  63 /  30  80   0   0
F10   85  67  88  66 /  20  90  10   0
HHW   86  69  87  68 /  30  80  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for OKZ049-053-065-066-
     070>076.

AR...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05