898
FXUS64 KTSA 020027
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
727 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Generally weakening MCS continues to push eastward this afternoon
across parts of southeast Oklahoma. Development of a wake low on
the northern side of the MCS has led to some gusty winds on the
periphery of the MCS, and will likely continue as it pushes
eastward into Arkansas this afternoon. Storms have generally been
on the weakening trend, but high moisture content will continue to
pose a heavy rain threat with any of the stronger cells embedded
in the system. As the MCS moves off to the east this afternoon, a
relatively quiet afternoon/evening should be in store for most of
the forecast area. A few scattered thunderstorms will be possible
across far northeast Oklahoma through the afternoon and evening
within a low level warm advection regime. Any storms could become
marginally severe, with large hail the main concern, though mid
level capping remains in place in the wake of widespread overnight
convection across eastern Oklahoma, limiting the overall coverage
of storms this afternoon.

Otherwise a warm and humid afternoon is expected across the
forecast area with the exception of where the MCS continues to
churn. Attention will then turn to the overnight hours, with
increasing shower and storm chances expected. Storms are expected
to develop this afternoon across the eastern Texas Panhandle and
into western Oklahoma. This activity will eventually grow upscale
and move eastward into the overnight hours. Thus, another MCS is
expected to impact eastern Oklahoma late tonight and early
tomorrow morning. Trends in latest observations would tend to
favor a more northeastward track to the MCS than what has been
depicted in most model guidance throughout the day. The ongoing
MCS across southeast Oklahoma will limit the amount of recovery in
that area through the rest of the afternoon and thus leave a
robust theta-e/instability gradient from northeast Oklahoma (where
clearing has occurred) through southeast Oklahoma (which remains
cloudy and cool). The developing MCS would likely favor more of a
northeastward track along the instability gradient, bringing
better storm chances into northeast Oklahoma for the late tonight
time frame. The system will likely be in a weakening state as mid
level capping increase toward sunrise tomorrow morning, but some
strong winds could still be possible as the more organized MCS
enters eastern Oklahoma.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Ongoing MCS across the area Thursday morning will shift eastward
and weaken with time through the morning as it moves into
northwest Arkansas. What happens Wednesday night/Thursday morning
will play a role in the evolution of rain chances later in the day
Thursday and overnight. A frontal boundary is forecast to move
into the area during the day Thursday. If the atmosphere can
recover in time in the wake of previous convection, a renewed
round of showers and storms will be likely along the frontal
boundary Thursday evening, with some severe potential depending on
the airmass in place by that time.

A relative lull in the action is expected on Friday, with some
lingering showers/storms across southeast Oklahoma as the frontal
boundary becomes stalled and washes out during the day Friday.
Broad western CONUS troughing will continue into the weekend
however, allowing for the active pattern to continue through the
weekend. Shower and storm chances increase again on Saturday and
Sunday as several shortwave speed maxes rotate through the larger
scale trough and move out over the Plains. Uncertainty remains in
the severe threat after several days of convection across the
Plains modifying the airmass. But, with it being May, can`t rule
out severe potential any day with storms around the area. The
main upper trough is progged to become negatively tilted and
eject out into the Central Plains on Monday which could bring the
next chance for more widespread severe potential to the region,
but will continue to be dependent on how much the atmosphere has
been worked over by previous convection at that point. This trough
should finally push a frontal boundary through the region and
potentially allow for a brief quieter period for the middle part
of next week.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 725 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

VFR conditions prevail this evening across eastern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas and are expected to continue through much of the valid period.
There could be some period of MVFR conditions later tonight into Thursday
as showers and storms potentially impact area sites.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  66  78  60 /  20  40  70  60
FSM   85  66  77  64 /  20  20  80  60
MLC   83  66  78  62 /  70  60  80  60
BVO   82  63  77  56 /  30  40  70  50
FYV   80  64  77  59 /  20  10  70  60
BYV   81  65  78  61 /  20   0  60  60
MKO   82  66  76  61 /  20  40  70  60
MIO   78  66  76  59 /  20  20  70  70
F10   81  65  78  61 /  60  60  80  60
HHW   83  65  76  64 /  30  60  90  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...10