Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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772 FXUS64 KTSA 032306 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 606 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 205 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 The strong/marginally severe convective bow echo continues to surge eastward/southeastward in far Southeast OK and West-Central AR early this afternoon. Wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up to an inch in diameter continue to be the primary hazards. Additionally, very heavy rainfall has been observed, with radar estimating instantaneous rainfall rates between 2-4+ inches per hour in the heaviest rain. Nuisance flooding and flash flooding will remain a concern until the convection pushes out of the forecast area mid-late afternoon. Some of the heaviest rain amounts have totaled between 1 and 3 inches, per surface obs and Oklahoma Mesonet obs. Latest 12z runs of the CAMs still suggest redevelopment of another cluster of thunderstorms/mesoscale convective system (MCS) early to mid evening across Western/Central OK as lobe of vorticity spins up along/ahead of another shortwave trough that will move across the Southern/Central Plains tonight. With the boundary layer for much of Eastern OK and Northwest AR being somewhat stable and worked over behind this mornings/early afternoon convection, there is still some uncertainty how this convection will evolve this evening. Have maintained NBM PoPs, with some minor adjustments, for tonight and into Tuesday morning. PoPs may need to be further adjusted as the event unfolds this evening. With the assumption of another MCS spawning this evening, damaging wind gusts and very heavy rainfall will be the main concerns (with large hail up to 1 inch in diameter being secondary) as the MCS advances southeastward into Southeast OK late this evening and into the overnight hours. North of this feature, generally along and north of I-40 in Northeast OK, the shortwave trough is also expected to help produce isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms that will gradually progress eastward into West-Central/Northwest AR after midnight. A few of these particular thunderstorms may be strong and/or marginally severe as well, with heavy rainfall, damaging wind gusts and large hail being the primary hazards. Hi-res model data have the MCS moving out of the forecast area by or just after sunrise Tuesday. Will continue to monitor and adjust the forecast as needed. Mejia && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Monday) Issued at 205 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing across parts of Southeast OK and into Northwestern AR at daybreak Tuesday morning, which should continue to move eastward/southeastward as the morning progresses. The troughiness mid/upper-level pattern will persist through the daytime on Tuesday, though the majority of Tuesday is expected to be mostly dry for most locations. However, yet another mid-level shortwave trough will arrive over the region Tuesday evening/night into Wednesday morning as a surface frontal boundary also approaches from the northwest. Another MCS is forecast to develop near/ahead of the approaching front as a result. There is still a lot of uncertainty with how this scenario will evolve and unfold, timing and locations included. Main hazards with this scenario would be damaging wind gusts and large hail. Much more benign and stable conditions arrive by Wednesday afternoon as northwest flow pattern aloft commences and dominates through the middle part of the week. Wednesday mornings cold front may meander/stall across the forecast area during the daytime Wednesday, perhaps even lifting northward Wednesday evening/night. By Thursday morning, a stronger surge of surface high pressure from the Northern Plains is expected to push the cold front through the entire forecast area, exiting sometime Thursday night/Friday morning. A few ensemble members and medium- range deterministic models have isolated showers/thunderstorms developing along the cold front as it advances southward Thursday afternoon/evening, but with low confidence in this occurring, decided to leave the mention of precipitation out of the forecast for now. Mid/upper-level ridging will build over West TX/East NM by Friday, with northwest flow continuing over our region. A few mid- level perturbations will have to be monitored in later forecasts for additional thunderstorm complexes rolling through the northwest flow aloft this upcoming weekend. Otherwise, near seasonal to slightly above seasonal temperatures are expected this weekend. Beyond this weekend, forecast uncertainty drastically increases and forecast confidence is low. Mejia && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 558 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Skies will continue to clear from west to east the next couple of hours, though high clouds will likely remain persistent. Another round of storms may develop across east-central OK this evening (30-40% chance). There is uncertainty in the placement and timing of storms, but the KLMC terminal and surrounding areas are the most likely corridor for storms. The main impacts would be gusty winds, heavy rain, and lightning. As these storms develop, CIGS will redevelop and lower across the area, generally in the 2.5-5 kft range, but they will be locally lower under storms with some vis reductions also possible. Scattered showers and storms may also occur during the day Tuesday, but coverage and intensity will be influenced by whatever happens tonight, so confidence is too low to include any additional specific mentions in the TAFs. Otherwise, CIGs will likely remain through much of the day in the 4-6 kft range. Winds will mostly be light through the period, and out of the south. A few areas may see marginal LLWS tonight, but the coverage and intensity was too low to justify including in the TAFs at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 69 85 69 89 / 30 20 70 0 FSM 70 86 72 91 / 30 20 70 20 MLC 69 87 70 89 / 30 10 60 10 BVO 66 84 64 89 / 30 20 70 0 FYV 66 83 66 86 / 40 30 80 20 BYV 66 84 67 86 / 40 40 80 20 MKO 68 84 69 87 / 40 10 70 10 MIO 66 84 66 86 / 40 30 80 10 F10 68 85 68 87 / 40 10 70 10 HHW 68 85 71 86 / 30 20 30 20 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...06