539
FXUS64 KTSA 201715
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1215 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today)
Issued at 1031 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Showers and thunderstorms have exited the area this morning which
will give way to a mostly clear and dry day for this afternoon.
Warm and humid conditions will be the story for today, with high
temperatures again topping out near 90 degrees. Southerly winds
will also be gusty again this afternoon, with gusts around 30 mph
for most of eastern Oklahoma with less breezy conditions across
northwest Arkansas. Going forecast looks in good shape with only
some minor updates to hourly grids to incorporate latest trends
and obs.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase again late
Tuesday afternoon and especially Tuesday evening as mid level
temperatures cool and a cold front begins to move into the area
from the north. Some of these storms will likely be severe, with
all severe weather hazards possible.

The frontal boundary will stall by late Wednesday across the
southern part of our forecast area, and will be the focus for
another round of showers and storms on both sides of the front.
Severe storms will again be possible, with hail being the main
threat on the cool side of the front. Locally heavy rainfall will
also be possible with this round of storms.

The front will lift north as a warm front later Thursday, and
another round of showers and storms will erupt as an upper wave
traverses the area.

Shower and storm chances will continue Friday through the weekend,
but confidence in location and timing of the best storm potential
is low at this time range. Long range models suggest the stormy
weather pattern may finally break early next week, and this
pattern change may be the beginning of the annual trend away from
severe storms and towards summer heat that normally starts taking
place just after Memorial Day.

Lowered NBM high temperatures late this week through the weekend
towards the MOS guidance numbers as the NBM seems to be
kickstarting the summer heat a bit too quickly.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

VFR conditions should prevail through the period with some
scattered cumulus around this afternoon. Southerly winds will
also be gusty this afternoon and then again tomorrow. Some low
level wind shear could impact some terminals tonight, but have
left out of mention for now due to uncertainty.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  89  62  74 /   0  20  60  60
FSM   71  90  72  82 /   0  10  50  80
MLC   72  87  71  81 /   0  20  40  80
BVO   70  89  59  73 /   0  20  60  50
FYV   68  86  66  79 /   0  20  70  80
BYV   68  88  65  77 /   0  10  60  80
MKO   71  87  67  77 /   0  20  60  80
MIO   71  87  60  72 /   0  30  80  70
F10   72  86  67  76 /   0  20  50  70
HHW   69  86  74  84 /   0  10  20  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...04