560
FXUS64 KTSA 260538
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1238 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 920 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Update mainly is for adding tornado watch 311 which will include
most of NE OK and far NW AR. Bulk of storm coverage is expected
to stay north of I 40 tonight, though isolated to widely scattered
storms that develop across SE OK and WC AR will still have severe
potential. Made some adjustments to PoPs through 06 based on
expected coverage, and just a few minor tweaks to PoPs in the
06-12z time frame. Overnight temperatures look reasonable at this
time.

Updated ZFP/AFM/PFM already sent

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Thunderstorms are expected to have waned and / or focused more
east of the local region by early Sunday. However, the cold front
associated with the passing wave will not clear western AR and SE
OK until late afternoon and conditions will become increasingly
unstable ahead of the boundary. Veered low level winds will limit
frontal convergence and overall storm coverage is likely to be
low, however at least isolated storms are possible along the
boundary by mid to late afternoon before the front clears the
forecast area to the east and south. Otherwise, dry weather and
warm weather will prevail west of the front. Sfc high pressure
builds across the region Monday providing a pleasant day area
wide.

The pattern transitions toward more northwesterly flow through the
southern Plains by Tuesday with daily thunderstorm complexes
likely to develop and track in or near the forecast area from
Tuesday night through Thursday. Locally heavy rainfall and at
least a limited risk of severe weather would accompany these
events.

By late week into next weekend the pattern reverts to more
southwesterly flow aloft and likely remains unsettled with daily
thunderstorm chances continuing.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024
Supercell continues to track east early this morning across far
northeast Oklahoma and will likely impact KXNA/KROG in the 06-07Z
time range. LIFR conditions will be likely with the potential for
severe gusts/large hail. Supercell located along the OK/KS state
line should remain north of KBVO. Additional storms are developing
across portions of eastern Oklahoma in strong low level jet and a
few of these storms could also briefly impact NW AR TAF sites
overnight. Otherwise, strong and gusty southwest winds will develop
during the day Sunday. VFR conditions will prevail through the
remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  62  87  62 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   91  66  89  63 /  20  20   0  10
MLC   91  64  89  62 /   0  10   0  10
BVO   88  58  86  58 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   87  61  85  59 /  20  10   0   0
BYV   88  61  84  59 /  30  10   0   0
MKO   90  62  85  60 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   86  59  83  59 /  10  10   0   0
F10   91  61  86  60 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   89  65  89  63 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...12