685
FXUS63 KUNR 041714
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1114 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler today with isolated to widely scattered showers/storms in the
  morning and gusty westerly winds across northwest South Dakota.


- Strong west to northwest winds likely on Wednesday across
  northwest into portions of west central South Dakota.

- Warm weather expected through the weekend with chances for showers
  and storms returning by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Monday)
Issued at 248 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Current surface analysis has cold front moving across western SD,
with winds switching to the west and northwest and becoming gusty
for a brief period behind it. Upper level analysis shows
southwest flow across the northern Plains, ahead of trough moving
across southern AB, southern SK, and MT. Post frontal showers and
a bit of lightning are moving across parts of northeast WY to
northwest SD, with a few showers clipping south central SD as
well. Skies are mostly cloudy with warm temps in the upper 50s to
around 70 degrees.

Upper trough moves over the northern high Plains and south central
Canada today, with isolated to scattered showers passing through
areas mostly near and north of I-90 through the morning hours.
Showers should exit the forecast area by midday, with decreasing
clouds. Winds will be breezy for much of the day behind the front,
with the gustiest winds across northwest SD late this morning and
afternoon. Some gusts to near 45 mph are likely there, as well as
possibly over the adjacent plains east and northeast of the Black
Hills. Temps will drop back to near seasonable levels, with highs
mostly in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

As a surface low moves across southern Canada midweek, pressure
gradient remains rather tight over the region. A surface trough
passes through the forecast area early Wednesday morning, helping to
bring another round of gusty westerly winds, strongest over far
northwest SD where some gusts of 50 to around 60 mph are likely,
better than a 50 percent chance. At this point, will issue a high
wind watch for Harding County and let dayshift have another look at
wind potential across northwest into west central SD. High temps
will be similar to today, mostly 70s on the Plains and 60s over the
higher Black Hills.

The rest of the week and the weekend look to be at least seasonably
warm, with above average temperatures for at least Thursday and
Friday, as ridge builds over the western US into the Rockies and
large trough covers the eastern US. Looking for 70s to mid 80s for
highs most days through Sunday, then cooling down some early next
week. Ridge to the west should keep the area dry from Wednesday
through at least most of Friday. The ridge will break down some as
it moves into the Plains over the weekend, allowing for some
shortwave energy to pass through the northern and central Plains and
bring chances for showers and storms at times over the weekend and
into early next week. At this time, any activity looks to be
isolated to widely scattered over the weekend, with perhaps better
chances toward Monday as a stronger shortwave tries to move through
the northern Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Wednesday)
Issued At 1111 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Scattered rain showers continue to push westward through the
forecast area with rapidly clearing skies over NE WY and the
Black Hills. The line of showers have pushed east of KRAP and will
exit the forecast area after 19-21z. While transient MVFR
conditions will be possible as the line of showers move east, VFR
conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Breezy NW
winds expected this afternoon and again Wednesday mid-morning.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     afternoon for SDZ001.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...26
AVIATION...SE