Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
921 FXUS65 KVEF 300819 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 119 AM PDT Thu May 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Warmer than normal temperatures and dry weather are on tap for the region through the end of the week. Winds will pick up this weekend as a trough digs along the West Coast and moves through the area. Hot temperatures are likely for the second half of next week. && .SHORT TERM...through Friday night. Midnight satellite loop showed just a few cirrus passing over our CWA in northwesterly flow aloft. Surface obs showed very warm temperatures, which were a couple of degrees warmer on average than 24 hours ago. A weak wind shift line was moving south through our area, with north to northwest winds over the southern Great Basin and mostly nocturnal drainage winds over the Mojave Desert. As the morning goes on, this boundary will slowly sag south before washing out later in the day. High temperatures today should be similar or slightly warmer than yesterday, with a few more degrees of warming on Friday. Low humidity will continue. .LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday. A trough will dig along the West Coast and move through the area over the weekend. This will result in gusty southwesterly winds across the region on Saturday, with slightly weaker winds lingering into Sunday. Given the hot, dry, and windy conditions forecast for Saturday, fire weather is a concern as fuels continue to cure. As a result, regional GACCs are highlighting a low-to-moderate risk for significant fire potential across the southern and western portions of our forecast area. Forecast uncertainty increases as we head into next week and are potentially faced with a low pressure system off the coast of Southern California. The strength and position of this low will play an important role in next week`s weather, specifically during the latter portion of the week. The Climate Prediction Center is highlighting a 33% to 40% chance for above normal precipitation during the 8 to 14 day period (June 5th through June 11th), which would be a result of this low aiding in the transport of moisture into our forecast area. Even with this low sitting off the coast of California, temperatures are expected to remain warmer than normal for much of next week, with this year`s first occurrences of Major Heat Risk possible. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...A period of north-northwest winds of less than 8kts early this morning will turn northeast by late morning and then to the southeast by mid-afternoon. Once the southeast winds develop (after 21Z), there will be a 30% chance of winds briefly gusting to 18kts. After sunset, winds should turn to the southwest. A similar wind pattern is expected on Friday, with winds rotating clockwise from northeast to southwest throughout the day. FEW-SCT clouds with bases AOA 12kft AGL will move into the region late this afternoon and continue into Friday morning. Otherwise, mainly clear skies are expected. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Winds across the region will follow typical season directional variations today into Friday. Wind speeds across the Las Vegas and Colorado River valley should remain less than 10kts today into Friday. At KDAG, winds should remain 12kts or less through the afternoon before gusty westerly winds to 25kts develop before sunset. Gusty westerly winds to 20kts are forecast to develop in the Owens Valley, including KBIH, late this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, northerly winds of less than 10kts are expected in these areas. FEW-SCT clouds with bases AOA 12kft AGL will move across the northern half of the region this afternoon and continue into Friday morning. Across the southern half of the area, mainly clear skies are expected. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ SHORT TERM...Morgan LONG TERM...Stessman AVIATION...Planz For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter