778
FXUS65 KVEF 070757
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1257 AM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will hold over the region today, then
will gradually break down this weekend as a trough approaches the
West Coast. High temperatures as much as 10 to 15 degrees above
normal can be expected today, with a few record highs and record
warm lows possible. Temperatures will slowly retreat over the
weekend, but will remain above normal into next week.
&&

.SHORT TERM...through Sunday night. Midnight satellite loop showed
mid level convective debris clouds over the southern Great Basin and
cirrus clouds pushing northward into the Mojave Desert. Surface obs
showed generally light winds and temperatures running a few degrees
above 24 hours ago, on average. Forecast HeatRisk values for today
and Saturday have come down a fraction, but the Excessive Heat
Warning and Heat Advisory will remain unchanged. Today will be the
third day of dangerous heat for much of the region, prolonging the
exposure for those at risk. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will
be another concern. Yesterday, showers developed in Lincoln County
and as far south as the Spring Mountains, overperforming even the
high resolution models, which are usually overdone with coverage
and/or amounts. Looking back, this seems best correlated with a
small finger of precipitable water at or above 200 percent of normal
for early June. This afternoon, the best PWs stretch from the
southern Sierra through the Nevada National Security Site, and
manually increased PoPs there. A small secondary PW axis lies over
San Bernardino County, but 500 mb temps are a couple of degrees
warmer there, which could inhibit convection. Most of the better
moisture lifts north out of our area Saturday and especially Sunday,
quashing PoPs. Temperatures will come down a little more on Saturday
and be noticeably less hot on Sunday (for example, 103 in Las Vegas
as opposed to Thursday`s 111).

.LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday.

Trough moving into the west coast will help develop a cutoff low off
the southern California coast Monday and remain nearly stationary
before being caught up in mean flow Wednesday or Thursday and pushed
northeast into the Desert Southwest. There is no indication at this
time that we will see any moisture influx with this low, but as the
previous shift mentioned, there are often surprises with these
systems. The latest extended model ensembles show a broad trough
digging into the western US late next week. Although we could see a
slight bump in temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday, it looks like
temperatures could fall closer to normal toward the end of next week.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Winds will remain light, 10 knots or
less, and will follow typical diurnal directional trends through mid-
afternoon when breezy southwesterly winds will pickup. These 15 to
20 knot breezy southwesterly wind gusts will continue into the
evening hours before dropping off, with winds maintaining a more
southwesterly direction through the overnight hours. Similar to
yesterday, convection may pop up in the higher terrain around the
Las Vegas Valley this afternoon. Any showers that do develop
shouldn`t move off the terrain and make it to the terminal area.
However, it is possible that outflow winds may result in wind
shifts. This afternoon convection will be driven by diurnal heating
and will dissipate shortly after sunset.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Similar to yesterday, KBIH, KHND, and KVGT may see
afternoon convection in the higher terrain surrounding the Owens and
Las Vegas Valleys. Low confidence in any showers or thunderstorms
moving off the terrain and impacting the terminal areas. However,
outflow winds could result in breezy winds from varying directions.
Otherwise, winds at these TAF sites will remain light, 10 knots or
less, and will follow typical diurnal directional trends through mid-
afternoon. Breezy southerly-to-southwesterly winds will pick up
around mid-afternoon with 15 to 20 knot wind gusts continuing into
the evening hours before dropping off. KDAG will favor a more
westerly to west-southwesterly direction with 20 to 30 knot wind
gusts picking up this afternoon. The Colorado River Valley TAF sites
will see light and variable winds pick up and swing around to the
south. The 15 to 20 knot wind gusts associated with this wind shift
will continue into the evening hours before dropping off.
&&

.CLIMATE...Several record high temperatures and record high minimum
temperatures have been tied or broken this week. The table below
shows the daily record high temperature and record high minimum
temperature for June 7 and June 8.

RECORD HIGH     FRI, JUNE 7     SAT, JUNE 8
                Record(Yr)      Record(Yr)

Las Vegas       109(2013)       112(2013)
Bishop          103(2013)       105(2016)
Needles         117(2013)       118(1955)
Barstow-Daggett 112(1985)       113(2013)
Kingman         106(2013)       107(1955)
Death Valley    123(1995)       123(2013)

RECORD WARM     FRI, JUNE 7     SAT, JUNE 8
LOW             Record(Yr)      Record(Yr)

Las Vegas       86(2010)        84(2016)
Bishop          61(2016)        64(2014)
Needles         95(2016)        85(2013)
Barstow-Daggett 81(2002)        77(2016)
Kingman         74(1928)        74(1927)
Death Valley    93(2006)        94(2022)

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Morgan
LONG TERM...Gorelow
AVIATION...Stessman

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