159
FXUS64 KAMA 291814
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
114 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 634 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Cloud cover is not panning out as model guidance had originally
depicted so far this morning. Have decreased cloud cover through
the morning hours. The KAMA 29/12z sounding also depicts a lot
more drier air than model guidance continues to suggest, so am not
anticipating any cloud cover to move in or develop any time soon.
Afternoon high temperatures have also been adjusted up a few
degrees with room to go even higher if cloud cover does hold off
into the afternoon hours.

Muscha

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

The daily chances for showers and thunderstorms looks to continue
both today and tomorrow for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.
Both days have the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms,
with large hail and damaging wind gusts the primary hazards. High
temperatures should remain below average both today and tomorrow.

Rain showers and thunderstorms continue south of the forecast area
this morning. The chance for additional development appears low
this morning, but cannot completely rule out a few showers or
storms. Otherwise, low clouds will move in near sunrise.

The aforementioned cloud cover may remain across portions of the
area through most of the day today. This will inhibit surface
heating today and highs are forecast to only warm up into the 70s
for most areas. Given the lack of heating, showers and storms are
unlikely to form during the daytime hours. A few CAMs still hint
at this potential, so have kept in some low PoPs during the late
afternoon into early evening hours. The best chance at seeing
precipitation today will likely wait until the evening hours at
the earliest as a shortwave trough moves across the Southern High
Plains. Showers and storms could linger through the night as a
potential line of storms moves across portions of the area. Model
guidance does hint at elevated instability so storms could be
strong to severe, with the primary threat being large hail
initially but would likely become a wind threat if a line of
storms does form. Model guidance varies on the coverage and
intensity of any potential storms, so refinements are likely later
on today.

Showers and storms may continue into Thursday morning from
convection the night before. If convection remains across the area
well into the morning hours or potentially into the afternoon,
that could limit shower and storm coverage on Thursday. There is
another disturbance in the flow that should be enough to kick off
another round of storms during the afternoon into the evening.
These storms will once again have the potential to become severe
with large hail and damaging winds continuing to be the primary
hazards. PWAT values up around an inch or greater will also lead
to heavy rainfall that could lead to localized flash flooding.
Thursday has higher confidence in severe storms than there is
today, but there are still some failure modes that will need to be
monitored. Slightly stronger WAA combined with some clearing
cloud cover on Thursday across the west should allow for
temperatures to warm up into the 80s for highs during the
afternoon hours before any thunderstorms are forecast to develop.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue Friday
through Monday as several upper level disturbances move through the
flow and combine with the low level moisture to help produce the
showers and storms.  Again, the devil will be in the details on how
much coverage of rain the Panhandles will get from day to day.  Some
of the storms will be severe through this period.  At this time, it
looks like Saturday and Monday may have the better potential to see
severe weather given the extra convergence along the dryline and
better potential instability.  Highs are expected to warm through
the period from mainly 70`s on Friday to mainly 90`s on Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF sits through at
least 03z tonight. Thereafter we`ll see how storm coverage poses
any issues for the terminals. VCSH has been noted for the times
that storms may impact the terminals. Overall, coverage is still
the question as there may just be some isolated storms that
manage to avoid the terminals. Would expect as we get to the
00z/06z TAF issuance, there will be better confidence on storms
and timing of impacts. Winds overall will be out of the south in
the 10-15kt range. Additionally, cigs will likely fall to BKN
3-5kft agl after 03z tonight.

Weber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                80  61  86  58 /  10  40  50  70
Beaver OK                  85  62  84  57 /  20  50  50  80
Boise City OK              82  58  86  54 /  30  50  60  60
Borger TX                  85  64  89  59 /  10  40  50  80
Boys Ranch TX              84  62  91  58 /  10  40  50  70
Canyon TX                  80  61  87  57 /  10  40  40  70
Clarendon TX               81  61  81  58 /  10  50  50  80
Dalhart TX                 82  58  87  54 /  20  30  50  60
Guymon OK                  80  60  86  55 /  10  50  60  70
Hereford TX                82  61  91  57 /  10  30  30  60
Lipscomb TX                84  63  84  58 /  20  50  70  90
Pampa TX                   82  62  84  58 /  10  40  50  80
Shamrock TX                85  62  82  58 /  10  50  60  80
Wellington TX              84  63  82  60 /  10  50  60  80

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...89