424
FXUS64 KAMA 140820
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
320 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon across
portions of the Panhandles, with more widespread chances for all
of the Panhandles tomorrow. These thunderstorms could reach severe
criteria.

Later on today, thunderstorms will be possible across the north
central combined Panhandles, along with the far southern and
southeastern Texas Panhandle. As the main H500 positive tilted
ridge moves through the central Plains, a deepening H500 trough
will move across the central Rockies in the wake of the ridge.
Coupled with decent shear across the central Rockies, multi-cell
complex of strong to severe storms should form across eastern
Colorado later today. If the main steering flow is suffice, these
storms could reach the northern Panhandles later this afternoon
and this evening with large hail and damaging winds being the main
threats. If cap can break, CAPE values 1000-1200 J/kg across the
northern Panhandles with 0-6 km shear of 20-30 kts should suffice
any established convection moving into the area for longevity of
thunderstorm chances, clearing out around midnight tonight.
Chances for storms are 20 to 30%.

Further south across the southern Texas Panhandle, thunderstorm
develop will be less likely (~10%), based off more mesoscale
features for lift vs. synoptic based further north. However, a
well mixed pseudo dryline should develop from the southern TX
Panhandle south through the Texas South Plains. Any 45 deg to
near orthogonal convergence along this surface boundary this
afternoon, in-conjunction with 0-3 km & 0-6 km shear of around 20
kts, in addition to the timing of decent H700 theta-e advection
and main perturbation in the wake of the main ridge axis,
thunderstorms could develop along the best convergence sfc
boundary. In particular, DCAPE values by this afternoon of around
1500-1600 J/kg in the most agressive model data sets, damaging
wind gusts could result from deep mixed profiles if severe
thunderstorms can develop as the primary threat, along with large
hail as well. If timing is not ideal, environment could be too
capped for storms to form. But we do have a chance none-the-less.
High temperatures today will range from the mid 80s to lower 90s.

Going into the day tomorrow, a more pronounced H500 low will move
east across the Arizona/Mexico border, and as it does so, a
sufficient amount of lift will be in place across the southern
High Plains. A definite setup for thunderstorms to develop across
the majority of the Panhandles with widespread beneficial
H850-700 theta-e advection, along with MLCAPE/MUCAPE values
exceeding 2000 J/kg by tomorrow afternoon in addition to very
notable uni-directional shear. The only exception for widespread
convection could be the SW Texas Panhandle initially as an area of
negative vorticity, co-located within an area of mid level dry
air at the approaching base of the trough may limited some initial
convection. But this should be short lived as the main trough
axis approaches by tomorrow night, giving most of the area at
least a good chance of some rain. In terms of thunderstorms,
severe thunderstorms are a definite possibility with large hail
and damaging wind gusts being the main threat. Storm mode should
first start as a cluster of multi-cells/hybrid supercells before
quickly congealing into a squall line later into tomorrow evening,
likely due to the pronounced linear H850-500 shear. Another
source of surface lift we are watching tomorrow across the
Panhandles will be a cold front moving southeast throughout the
day. According to the latest 14/00Z model and numerical data, the
cold front timing should reach the central Texas Panhandle during
peak heating tomorrow afternoon. The sfc wind boundary should help
with more discrete cell development early on in the storm mode.
Many different components to thunderstorm chances tomorrow, so
check back for the latest updates to the forecast. High
temperatures tomorrow will range from the upper 70s in the NW to
lower 90s in the SE.

Meccariello

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Showers and thunderstorms are possible again Thursday, but that
comes with uncertainties. This potential will depend upon the
location of the surface low that develops, how far south of the
Panhandles the cold front moves, and the low-level moisture content.
Given that strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday
as scrupulously discussed above, thinking that the outflow from
the thunderstorms will help push the cold front move considerably
south of the Panhandles by Thursday afternoon. Nonetheless, even
the ECMWF solution (the solution with the furthest south cold
front) has decent low-level moisture remaining in the southern TX
Panhandle. If the GFS verifies (the furthest north solution),
shower and thunderstorm activity may be more widespread across the
Panhandles again, and a strong to severe thunderstorm can`t be
ruled out. However, confidence is very low at this time and the
conditions for severe weather look very marginal at best. The
Panhandles dry out on Friday as the upper-level trough moves away
from the area.

An upper-level ridge builds over the Panhandles this weekend as an
upper-level trough develops in the Western US. Temperatures on
Saturday warm into the 90s for much of the area with some isolated
locations merely staying in the upper-80s. Unfortunately, forecast
confidence decreases significantly after Saturday and a wide range
of possibilities come into play for next week.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

VFR conditions are expected throughout the 06Z TAF period. Winds
will be out of the south and southwest at 5-15 kts throughout the
majority of the TAF period. Winds will be more variable at 5-10
kts towards the end of the TAF period. Skies will be mostly clear
throughout the TAF period.

Meccariello

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                88  55  86  54 /  10  10  40  70
Beaver OK                  87  54  85  54 /   0  20  40  70
Boise City OK              86  50  79  49 /  20  20  60  60
Borger TX                  92  57  90  56 /   0  10  40  70
Boys Ranch TX              91  53  89  54 /   0  10  40  60
Canyon TX                  89  55  88  54 /  10  10  40  60
Clarendon TX               86  57  88  56 /  10  10  40  70
Dalhart TX                 87  48  83  50 /  10  10  40  60
Guymon OK                  88  51  82  52 /  10  20  40  60
Hereford TX                90  55  89  54 /   0  10  30  60
Lipscomb TX                86  56  87  56 /   0  10  40  80
Pampa TX                   87  56  87  56 /   0  10  40  70
Shamrock TX                85  55  90  56 /   0  10  40  80
Wellington TX              86  57  90  56 /  10  10  40  80

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...29