143
FXUS64 KAMA 121129
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
629 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Rain and thunderstorms are moving their way across the Panhandles
tonight with another area of showers developing in west Texas,
expected to move northeast as well. Latest thinking is that the
convection in the western and northern half of the CWA continue
their trek northeastward out of the area while additional
development in eastern NM/western Texas is possible later in the
overnight period. Small hail will be possible with any thunderstorm
with a more robust updraft, which would be most favored in the
southern and eastern TX Panhandle where the relatively better
instability is located. Generally speaking, current thinking is that
showers and isolated thunderstorms will most likely linger into the
morning hours in the southeast while activity in the rest of the
area may be more sparse. That said, models aren`t handling the
current location and coverage of precipitation across the broader
region, thus confidence in convective evolution through the morning
is somewhat low... particularly in the southeastern TX Panhandle.

A surface low pressure is expected to develop during the day in
eastern NM and southwesterly to westerly surface winds are favored
to develop through the southwestern TX Panhandle. Southerly to
southeasterly surface winds are expected to develop in the eastern
Panhandles which helps set up a north-south oriented surface trough
across a portion of the Panhandles. Current thinking is that it may
set up as far west as Amarillo, or as far east as Panhandle to
Borger. Meanwhile, a weak cold front will move in to the Panhandles
in the afternoon as the surface low begins to move east into Texas.
Thunderstorms are favored to develop in the northern and central
Panhandles where morning rain should clear out and cloud breaks are
possible. There, a few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
where MLCAPE values between 750-1500 J/kg are possible along with 30-
40 kts of effective shear. Primary hazards appear to be hail up to
the size of ping pong balls and 60 mph winds. Low-level wind shear
looks weak through the afternoon, and with a surging cold front in
the evening that should undercut the updrafts with time, the tornado
threat looks quite low. The severe thunderstorm threat in the
southeastern TX Panhandle is greatly depend upon rain and clouds
being able to clear out early enough in the afternoon to allow for
daytime heating to potentially allow the cap to be breached
later.

The weak cold front will move through the Panhandles tonight and
some rain and isolated thunderstorms may linger in the east. Clouds
clear out through the morning hours of Monday and temperatures
should return to the 70s and low-80s.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

A small amplitude ridge will move east across the Panhandles on
Tuesday as a part of the general low amplitude sinusoidal H500
pattern setting up for the long term forecast period. Southerly
winds will bring high temperatures above average on Tuesday.

Going into mid week on Wednesday and Thursday, latest 12/00Z model
and numerical guidance continue to show our next chance of showers
and thunderstorms across a good portion of the Panhandles. A deep
positive tilted H500 trough over western Arizona will aid good
LL moisture transport out ahead into the Panhandles. Some of the
global model data sets shows a notable cap we will have to watch
closely. A cold front will move into the region from the central
Plains, and if the timing is right by Wednesday afternoon/evening,
this front should help to break the cap where MUCAPE of up to
3000 J/kg is possible in the most aggressive model data sets. The
chance for strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on
Wednesday and again on Thursday as the main upper level system
moves closer to the Panhandles aiding the better sources for
lift. Will have to watch for trends closely. Later in the week
into the coming weekend, dry conditions should return. Minus
Thursday in the wake of the cold front where temperatures will be
slightly below normal, high temperatures Wednesday through
Saturday will be above normal for this time of year.

Meccariello

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

IFR to MVFR ceilings are present at KAMA and KDHT respectively,
and KGUY is expected to see MVFR ceilings in the coming several
hours. Ceilings are expected to return to VFR at each terminal by
around either 17z or 19z, depending on which terminal. Additional
showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon primarily at
KDHT and KGUY, with a lower chance at KAMA. Have left mentions of
thunderstorms out of the TAF for now, but that may need to be
amended later if confidence increases. A cold front moves in from
the north this evening changing winds to northwesterly trending
toward northerly.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                77  50  78  48 /  30  20  10   0
Beaver OK                  74  51  75  46 /  80  60  30   0
Boise City OK              72  47  76  44 /  70  40  10   0
Borger TX                  81  54  81  49 /  50  40  10   0
Boys Ranch TX              81  50  81  47 /  30  20  10   0
Canyon TX                  79  50  79  47 /  20  10   0   0
Clarendon TX               71  53  78  50 /  60  30  10   0
Dalhart TX                 75  46  77  42 /  50  30  10   0
Guymon OK                  76  49  76  45 /  70  60  10   0
Hereford TX                80  50  81  47 /  20  10   0   0
Lipscomb TX                73  52  75  48 /  80  70  20   0
Pampa TX                   74  52  76  49 /  60  40  10   0
Shamrock TX                69  54  78  50 /  90  50  10   0
Wellington TX              70  55  79  51 /  80  40  10   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...52