427
FXUS64 KAMA 130542
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1242 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

.SHORT TERM...

A weather system is currently passing over the southern plains
today generating a surface low in the panhandles as it does so.
This system has pushed ample moisture across the panhandles for
the last few days leading to the extensive cloud cover and earlier
rain showers and thunderstorms. This system is causing increasing
instability with its passage with a corridor of 500 to 1800 CAPE.
This will allow further rain showers and thunderstorms to flair up
this afternoon starting in the central and northern panhandles.
Further rain showers and thunderstorms are then likely to form in
the western panhandles as the low center passes through. All this
activity will move eastward as both the system and the instability
it is causing moves east. This system is causing some shear across
the panhandles during its passage which will allow for some of the
storms to organize and potentially become strong to severe. The
primary threat from any of these strong to severe storms remains
large hail and damaging winds. The chance for tornados is
extremely low but a landspout cannot be fully ruled out as the
upper low passes across the region. The chance for any strong to
severe storm will strongly depend on how much heating will occur
in the breaks of clouds. The more clearings and the longer
duration of heating the higher the chance that a strong to severe
storm will be. Conversely if the current cloud cover stick around
longer then chance for a severe, much less any thunderstorms,
becomes less. Rainfall accumulations from the rain showers and
thunderstorms could be over an inch. However this will take either
multiple showers and thunderstorms passing over the same area. It
is almost as likely a spot will be missed by all the rain showers
and thunderstorms and see no further accumulations of rain from
this system. The passage of the surface low will act as a weak
cold front shunting the bulk of the moisture to the east this
evening. This will cause most of the rain showers and
thunderstorms to end across the panhandles. There could still be a
few light showers under the upper low mainly in the northern
panhandles this evening to overnight during its passage.

Monday will see the weather system still impacting the panhandles
this time with some wrap around moisture. While low the moisture
should prove sufficient to cause further isolated rain showers
and thunderstorms. These have the best chance of occurring in the
northern TX panhandle and OK panhandle as the moisture will be
higher there. The rest of the TX panhandles will have a very low
chance of seeing any further rainfall. Even areas that see more
rain are unlikely to see much accumulation as these will be light
rain showers. Winds will stay out of the north through the day and
become gusty as the gradient from the weather system becomes
tighter. Once the system pushes further eastward late in the day
the winds will weaken again and become fairly light.

SH

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Ridging looks to be in control on Tuesday, resulting in
temperatures peaking in the 80s to near 90 in some spots.
Southerly winds will bring some moisture back to the area through
the afternoon and evening hours, which could help a stray storm
or two develop when a few models hint a potential impulse impedes
the ridge. This is a low confidence scenario though, as models are
quite split on the existence of this hypothetical impulse.
Therefore, POPs remain <20% on Tuesday.

Models agree active weather promptly returns to the Panhandles Wed-
Thu, when showers and storms could be in play once again. The
overall setup for storms looks rather messy, as a stalling cold
front and upper level shortwave situate atop the Panhandles. The
position of this front is still a point of contingency amongst
guidance, as well as quality of moisture return and deep layer
shear. If conditions culminate favorably though and more
aggressive guidance comes to fruition, strong to severe storms
with a wind and hail threat would be possible. As the
aforementioned front gradually slides south, the parent trough
situated over the southwest CONUS will translate eastward towards
the Plains by Thursday, providing lift for additional showers and
embedded storms. Anomalously high PWATs around 0.75-1.25" should
exist throughout this time frame, supporting more chances at
beneficial spring rains through Thursday night, even if the
thunderstorm threat doesn`t pan out. There`s still ample time for
this outlook to trend one way or the other, so please check back
for updates as we get closer.

We transition back to benign weather Friday as the system exits
and dry air surges in. After cooler temps on Thursday in the wake
of the front and under the influence of heavy cloud cover/rain,
above average temperature come right on back by the weekend.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

VFR conditions are expected throughout the 06Z TAF period. Winds
are out of the SW at KAMA, but within the first hour or so,
similar to KDHT/KGUY currently, winds will shift to northerly at
10-15 kts. Winds will increase to 15-20 kts by Monday afternoon
with gusts of 25-30 kts at times. Winds will then subside to 5-15
kts after 00Z Tuesday to the end of the TAF period. Skies should
be mostly clear.

Meccariello

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                78  47  87  56 /  10   0  10  10
Beaver OK                  77  45  85  55 /  20   0   0  10
Boise City OK              75  45  84  50 /  10   0  10  20
Borger TX                  81  48  90  57 /  10   0  10  10
Boys Ranch TX              81  47  90  55 /  10   0  10  10
Canyon TX                  79  47  87  54 /  10   0   0  10
Clarendon TX               78  51  84  56 /  10   0   0  10
Dalhart TX                 77  43  86  50 /  10   0  10  10
Guymon OK                  77  44  86  52 /  10   0  10  20
Hereford TX                81  47  89  55 /  10   0   0  10
Lipscomb TX                76  47  84  57 /  20   0   0  10
Pampa TX                   77  48  85  57 /  10   0   0  10
Shamrock TX                78  49  84  56 /  10   0   0  10
Wellington TX              79  51  85  57 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...29