Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
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916 FXUS61 KCAR 091717 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 117 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level low pressure will move away early this morning. Another upper low will cross our region this afternoon through tonight and move away to the northeast on Monday. Weak upper level low pressure will remain in the vicinity Tuesday and Wednesday as ridging builds to our north. High pressure will build to our south on Thursday as another low begins to approach. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 117 PM Update: Rain continues to spread across the state this afternoon, with steady rain moving into the Downeast region and showers developing across the north. Rainy weather will continue through the rest of the afternoon throughout the forecast area. Previous Discussion: The upper low which brought our showers Saturday into Saturday night will be moving away to the northeast this morning. This low will bring only spotty showers early today. However, this is a two part system which has another upper low that will approach from Southern Quebec today and begin to move into the area this afternoon. A jet max and embedded shortwave south of this low will spread showers and embedded thunderstorms into southern parts of our area this afternoon. Forecast CAPES are only around 100-200 J/kg, but precipitable water is expected to be over an inch across the area raising the potential for some heavier downpours in any embedded convective showers. A cluster of heavier showers will lift north around the upper low spreading more widespread showers up through the rest of our area later this afternoon through this evening. Additional soaking rainfall is likely. Some embedded thunderstorms and heavier downpours will be possible Downeast this afternoon and over much of the region later today through the evening. As low pressure, both surface and aloft, pivots north tonight, showers will diminish over the south but continue across the north. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Monday... Models have trended significantly wetter for Monday morning in Northern Maine, with the upper level low pressure and a surface low positioned just east of the NE Maine/New Brunswick, spinning nearly in place and bringing decent rainfall to Northern Maine. Didn`t quite go as high for PoPs as the NBM would suggest, as went with 80 PoPs north of Houlton while NBM had 90 PoPs. Still some uncertainty with how things evolve, but early Monday in the north is looking gloomier than it had been. Expect the steadier rain in the north to taper off midday Monday into the afternoon as the upper low over Northern New Brunswick slowly moves east and away from us. Should be enough instability, though, for scattered to numerous showers areawide in the afternoon, with perhaps an isolated thunderstorm but nothing strong. Monday Night... Showers should die off in the evening. With light winds and recent rainfall, should be some fog in low-lying areas. Tuesday... Light flow aloft and at the surface over the state Tuesday. Still enough moisture for a chance of afternoon showers, but thanks to weak dynamics showers won`t be as abundant as recent days with probabilities of measurable rain 25-50%. Warmer with highs in the mid to upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Light flow aloft remains over the area Tuesday night into Wednesday night. A few afternoon showers and storms possible Wednesday, but nothing significant. Slow warming trend continues with highs near 80 Wednesday. Thursday and Friday, an upper trough begins to approach from the west. Some uncertainty in the timing of the trough. Some models bring increased shower/storm chances beginning Thursday, while others hold things off until the main event Friday. Either way, with decent dynamics late in the week and a warm moist airmass, there is the potential for some stronger storms Thursday/Friday. Likely drying out and cooling down a bit for next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: Rain will continue to spread across all terminals through this afternoon, dropping conditions to MVFR/IFR into the early evening. Rain will clear out across southern terminals this evening, and conditions there will improve to VFR overnight. Patchy fog could briefly lower vis to MVFR/IFR overnight near the coast, but the chance is low (10%). For northern terminals, ceilings will remain IFR through the night with continued rain and rain showers. Winds will remain out of the W to SW and less than 5 kts. Rain will gradually taper off at northern terminals on Monday, but ceilings will be slow to recover. Meanwhile, VFR likely to hang on at southern terminals. Winds W 5 to 10 kts through Monday afternoon. VFR conditions returning across all terminals Monday night with light winds. SHORT TERM: Monday afternoon-Wednesday...VFR, except for brief period of MVFR possible in any stronger showers in the afternoon and MVFR or lower possible in patchy fog late at night/early in the morning. Winds generally less than 10 kts. Wednesday night...VFR. Thursday...VFR, except for brief period of MVFR possible in any stronger convection. SW winds G15-20KT possible. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds will remain below SCA and seas around 4 ft offshore and 3 ft intracoastal through Monday. Moist air over the waters may result in reduced visibility in areas of dense fog overnight tonight. SHORT TERM: A light to moderate pressure gradient over the waters Monday should allow for winds up to 15 kt along with some gusts to around 20 kt. Seas up to 4 ft are possible. The pressure gradient relaxes and should be light Monday night- Wednesday night, limiting winds to 10 kt or less over the waters. Seas should be 3 ft or less until possibly Thursday and Friday, when a building S-SW swell could increase seas to up to around 5 ft on Friday. Small craft winds are also possible around Friday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...AStrauser/Bloomer Short Term...Foisy Long Term...Foisy Aviation...AStrauser/Bloomer/Foisy Marine...AStrauser/Bloomer/Foisy