Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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760 FXUS64 KCRP 071936 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 236 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 201 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Mid-level high pressure is in control through the entirety of the short term forecast. This equates to quiet, but warm weather. 850 temps have come down a bit and dewpoints today have been lower than yestrday which has resulted in HI values mainly below 110 and expect that to continue tomorrow, thus no expected heat advisory. Temperatures are still expected to top 100 for the Brush country, and be in the 90s east. Overnight low temperatures will remain in the 70s for much of the area to around 80 near the coast tonight and tomorrow night. Could see a few hours of fog again toward Saturday morning, mainly in the band from Falfurrais through Alice and up toward Victoria. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 201 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Key Messages: - Moderate to major heat-related impacts are expected across the Rio Grande Plains to the Coastal Plains and minor to moderate impacts across the Victoria Crossroads Sunday and Monday. It looks like the 500 mb remains for Sunday, before breaking down on Sunday night/Monday morning. 500 mb wave looks to move through north Texas, and tries to get some rain down to VCT(on the GFS and ECMWF). However, the ensembles and NAM don`t support this so it looks like the NBM has 10-20% near VCT before it moves out, and then the focus is for possible convection near LRD (20-35%) Monday night. Tuesday, the ridge slowly builds back into the region but really doesn`t get in here until Wednesday. However, it builds enough on Tuesday that it keeps the rain out of the region through Thursday. Friday, it looks like the cut off low that set up over Louisiana Thursday night, tries to get a few showers into our offshore waters (20-60 NM) before moving on. Heat...Looking at the national heat risk map, we are in the moderate to Major categories from Sunday through Friday. Sunday and Monday, our heat indices peak at about 112 for a couple of hours in the Brush Country and southern Coastal Plains (inland Nueces and inland Kleberg). Tuesday, the 500 mb trough is over us and slowly moving out, and helps to suppress the temperatures a few degrees, especially in the Brush Country (3-5 degrees). Wednesday, the temperatures bounce back and the heat indices start to touch around 110, with Thursday and Friday getting to 110-112 along the Coastal Bend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Very seasonal forecast today with a light to moderate southeasterly wind during the day, becoming more gusty west late as the seabreeze moves through. A few low clouds overnight and have a CIG noted for ALI and COT. Also some MVFR fog possible at ALI and VCT toward morning. Back to MVFR conditions by mid-morning Saturday. && .MARINE... Issued at 201 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Weak onshore flow today will increase to weak to moderate levels by tonight. Weak to moderate onshore flow will then persist through next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 77 93 78 94 / 0 0 0 10 Victoria 73 94 76 96 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 75 100 77 102 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 74 97 75 99 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 80 91 81 92 / 0 0 0 10 Cotulla 76 102 78 103 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 75 95 78 96 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 81 91 82 91 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...PH/83 LONG TERM....JSL/86 AVIATION...PH