Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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871
FXUS64 KCRP 022341
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
641 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 636 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Given the current radar trends, most shower activity should
diminish through the evening. Looking ahead to Thursday morning,
hi-res models are resolving more scattered shower activity across
the Coastal Bend through late morning. Given this, blended in 18Z
HRRR guidance to throw in chances (20-30%) primarily from the
Brush Country over toward the Victoria Crossroads.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 636 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

- Low (20-40%) chance of showers and thunderstorms through
  Thursday, diminishing this weekend.

- Minor to moderate heat risk will continue into next week with
  heat index values peaking around 105 degrees, drink plenty of
  water.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Scattered showers with the occasional thunderstorm continues this
afternoon due to 99th percentile moisture interacting with an
inverted trough around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge
centered over Southeast Texas. Rain chances decrease tonight as
stability increases. The aforementioned ridge weakens and slides
southward into the western Gulf Thursday. However, above normal
moisture and remnants of mid-level PVA will warrant low chances of
showers and thunderstorms (20-40%) to continue through Thursday.

It`s important to note that there are model discrepancies on
Independence Day (Friday) with regards to mid-level features that
may warrant a change in precipitation chances. Moisture and mid-
level lift support decreases this weekend, leading to mainly rain-
free conditions. Early next week, a weak mid-level low or inverted
trough will advect westward from the northern Gulf to the Lower-
Mid Texas Coast, returning low (20%) chances of precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Tonight, MVFR ceilings are expected to develop over the Brush
Country, impacting ALI/COT/LRD, with IFR/LIFR potential over
COT/ALI respectively between 09-14Z. Hi-res guidance shows showers
ramping up from KALI northeastward toward KVCT through the
morning, briefly reducing ceilings and slight reduction in
visibility. In the afternoon, these showers become more sparse
leading to VFR conditions in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Gentle to moderate onshore flow (BF 3-4) and near 3 ft seas
persist through Friday night. Winds relax to mostly gentle flow
with 1-2 ft swell through the upcoming week. Chances for showers
and thunderstorms primarily increase across the open waters from
the upcoming week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    78  90  78  91 /  20  20  10  10
Victoria          75  91  76  92 /  20  30  10  10
Laredo            77  93  76  96 /  20  20  10  10
Alice             75  91  75  94 /  20  20  10  10
Rockport          80  89  81  90 /  30  20  10  10
Cotulla           77  93  77  97 /  20  40  30  20
Kingsville        76  90  76  92 /  20  20  10  10
Navy Corpus       81  88  81  88 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


DISCUSSION...EMF/94
AVIATION...AE/82