Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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857
FXUS64 KCRP 240525
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1225 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for 06Z aviation discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...Expect high clouds to spread into the region tonight
with scattered low clouds also developing. Not expecting much in
the way of CIGs through the night. Could see some brief fog at VCT
terminal, but not confident to put it in TAF at this time.
Moisture increases into the area on Thursday with rain chances
increasing for eastern sites.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 1114 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Update...as of 11pm, Harvey has been upgraded to a Tropical
Storm. No other changes at this time.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 1048 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Little change in forecast tonight. TD Harvey continues a very slow
movement to the northwest. Anticipated impacts remain on track to
earlier forecast with 6-12 inches of rain possible for southern
coastal bend and 10 to 15 inches northern coastal bend to
Victoria Crossroads region. Isolated higher amounts are possible.
There remains a spread of guidance on the exact landfall location
for what will likely be TS or Hurricane Harvey, but a Texas coast
landfall is looking likely, possibly along the middle Texas coast.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 732 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Note Aviation Discussion below corresponding to the 00Z TAFs.

AVIATION...

Predominate VFR this evening with a transition to a mixture of
MVFR and VFR ceilings overnight/early Thursday. Isolated to
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms expected to develop
near the coast early Thursday morning. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms expected to develop Thursday late morning/
afternoon, mainly over the Coastal Bend/Victoria Crossroads. Weak
to moderate onshore flow this evening becoming light/variable
overnight/early Thursday, becoming weak to moderate onshore
Thursday afternoon.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 531 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...

Hurricane Watch continues for the MSA/Coastal Bend/Victoria
Crossroads through the period. Deterministic runs predict a weak
E-W upper ridge axis over the region Tonight/Thursday. GFS
deterministic predicts well above normal PWAT values for the ERN
CWA by Thursday. Anticipate that copious moisture will contribute
to scattered convection over the ERN CWA Thursday. SPoRT/CIRA LPW
depicts a region of even greater moisture with around 2.5 inch
PWAT values just north of Harvey. The GFS deterministic moves this
region of greater moisture to near the Texas Coast Thursday
Night. Thus, scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms may occur
over the ERN CWA as early as Thursday night. Based on coordination
with HGX/EWX, may issue a FFA early Thursday morning for the
Coastal Bend/Victoria Crossroads for the valid period beginning
12z Friday.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...

Hurricane Watch continues for the MSA/Coastal Bend/Victoria
Crossroads through 12 UTC Saturday. However, considering GFS
ensemble mean/HNC, the system is expected to meander just north of
the CWA Sunday/Monday. Concur with WPC with regard to a Moderate
Risk of exceeding flash flood guidance over the ERN CWA Friday.
GFS ensemble and GFS/ECMWF deterministic depict less favorable
upper dynamics Tuesday/Wednesday. Anticipate only isolated
convection over mainly the MSA Tuesday and no activity anticipated
for Wednesday. Maximum Heat Index generally 100F or less.

MARINE (Tonight through Friday)...

Hurricane Watch continues for the MSA through the period. Owing to
copious moisture, isolated/scattered convection anticipated
Tonight/Thursday. Conditions expected to deteriorate Thursday
Night/Friday, as greater wind and rainbands associated with
Harvey are expected. Per WaveWatch, expect the sea state to become
conducive to rip currents by Thursday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    94  77  88  76  89  /  30  50  70  70  70
Victoria          95  76  86  75  85  /  30  30  70  80  90
Laredo            99  77  95  76  95  /  20  20  40  40  60
Alice             97  76  90  75  92  /  30  40  60  60  60
Rockport          92  79  86  77  86  /  30  50  70  80  70
Cotulla           99  76  94  76  91  /  20  20  40  40  60
Kingsville        97  77  89  76  93  /  30  40  70  60  60
Navy Corpus       91  80  86  78  87  /  40  50  80  70  70

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Hurricane Watch For the following zones: Aransas...Bee...
     Calhoun...Goliad...Jim Wells...Kleberg...Live Oak...
     Nueces...Refugio...San Patricio...Victoria.

GM...Hurricane Watch For the following zones: Bays and Waterways from
     Baffin Bay to Port Aransas...Bays and Waterways from Port
     Aransas to Port O`Connor...Coastal waters from Baffin Bay
     to Port Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port
     Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters from
     Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
     Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION



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