Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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524
FXUS64 KCRP 242332
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
632 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Note Aviation Discussion below corresponding to the 00z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR this evening will transition to MVFR ceilings overnight.
Isolated noctural showers are expected to develop over the
Coastal Waters/near the Coast early Sunday morning. A transition
to predominate VFR ceilings along with isolated to scattered
showers/thunderstorms, with brief MVFR conditions, expected
during the late morning/afternoon hours Sunday over South Texas.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 355 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region will continue
over the next few hours as an outflow boundary continues to slide
through from the north. This outflow will mostly affect the
Coastal Bend, while farther west it is the sea breeze that got
things going and now the outflows/cold pools from the storms are
developing more downstream. Heavy rain is the main issue with any
of the storms, outside of some frequent cloud to ground lightning.
Ponding of low-lying areas and some roadways is possible.
Activity will wane with the loss of daytime heating which should
leave us with a relatively quiet night. Could see more activity
push inland early Sunday morning along the coastal convergence
zone.

This activity in tandem with a stalled frontal boundary to our north
would continue mostly diurnally driven convection across much of
the region again on Sunday. Temperatures should be fairly similar,
both overnight lows and daytime highs when compared to this
morning and today.

Coastal Flooding...Even if tides do not reach 2.0` MSL exactly
there should be enough of a push/run-up with swell energy to
impact many of the beaches with water at or very close to the
dunes. Granted we don`t have the stronger southeasterly flow we
did this morning but the swells should help to compensate for that
issue.

LONG TERM (Monday through Friday)...

Remnants of a weak boundary will linger across the area. Moisture
will continue to pool across the western gulf and across the coastal
plains with pwats averaging between 1.8 to 2.0 inches. Northwest
flow remains aloft on Monday however, a shortwave trough develops
near the Big Bend in the meantime, and sinks south by Tuesday and
lingers along the coast through Friday. This will keep chance POPs
through much of the weak, peaking in activity during the morning and
afternoon hours. With weak flow aloft, not expecting any severe
weather but a few isolated strong storms may be possible, mainly
early in the week. Heading into the weekend, models differ on
strength and return of a mid level high pressure system sliding back
west across the western gulf. Overall, a drying trend is expected
late in the workweek. Temperatures are expected to remain near
seasonal normal with the increased cloud coverage and precip.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    78  91  76  90  75  /  30  40  40  60  40
Victoria          76  92  73  89  73  /  40  50  30  50  30
Laredo            77  97  75  95  74  /  20  40  30  30  20
Alice             76  93  74  92  73  /  20  50  30  50  30
Rockport          80  91  78  88  78  /  30  40  50  60  50
Cotulla           76  94  74  95  73  /  20  40  20  40  20
Kingsville        77  93  75  92  74  /  30  40  30  50  40
Navy Corpus       81  92  79  90  79  /  30  40  50  60  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening For the
     following zones: Aransas...Calhoun...Kleberg...Nueces.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 AM to noon CDT Sunday For the
     following zones: Kleberg...Nueces.

GM...None.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION



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