Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

060
FXUS64 KCRP 241126
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
626 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation below for 12Z TAF update.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR. Light north/northwesterly winds will persist through today,
gradually returning to a light southerly flow this evening and
overnight.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 432 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...

Overall, one dry and pleasant day outdoors can be anticipated
today before hot and humid conditions return. Surface high
pressure across the region will maintain offshore flow through
much of the day. The upper level trough will continue progressing
further east, with upper level riding building over the state
through the period. This will maintain a rain-free forecast
through the short term. The surface high will move into the
northern Gulf, with onshore flow quickly returning this evening.
Thursday will be breezy as low pressure will develop over the
Texas Panhandle, strengthening onshore flow.

Today will be notably less humid, with dewpoints in the 50s
throughout the day. Clear skies, and highs in the mid to upper 80s
can be anticipated today as well. This pleasant weather will be
short-lived though. Moisture increases quickly with the return
onshore flow on Thursday, bringing dewpoints back into the upper
60s to lower 70s. H85 flow switches from a northerly direction to
a southwesterly flow on Thursday, and temperatures quickly rise
back into the mid to upper 90s across most inland locations by the
afternoon.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...

A tale of two forecasts. One is hot, humid and dry, and the other
is, well wet. Starting off with ridging aloft helping to keep a lid
on the atmosphere but at the same time drawing moisture and heat
back into the region. It looks downright nasty for the upcoming
weekend as temperatures soar into the low-90s across the east and
the low-100s out west. Dewpoints jump back into the awful range,
mid/upper-70s, making heat index values top out near advisory levels
of 110 degrees. Don`t stay thirsty my friends, that`s a sign of
dehydration, stay hydrated.

Ridging begins to flatten out around Monday with more of a zonal
flow aloft expected as mid-latitude trough sends a cool front
towards the region. The southern jet becomes a bit more active
around this time too sending several impulses through the region..
Settling on unsettled is one way to put it for the later half of the
period. With the flow aloft more west-east doubt the front has
enough muster to make it all the way through the region but rather
get hung up somewhere around the Hill Country/Coastal Plains. Both
the GEFS and GEPS show the best deep moisture of nearly +2SD across
the region on Tuesday into Wednesday so the best chances for rain
and thunderstorms are centered around this time period. Being that
we are talking about 6-7 days from now and trying to time zonal flow
impulses did not want to go full bore on higher POPs at this time so
we keep it within the chance realm for the time being.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    85  66  89  77  93  /  10   0  10   0  10
Victoria          86  63  89  75  92  /  10   0  10   0  10
Laredo            88  67  98  76 102  /  10   0  10   0  10
Alice             88  63  94  76  98  /  10   0  10   0  10
Rockport          86  74  88  79  89  /  10   0  10   0  10
Cotulla           88  63  98  75 101  /  10   0  10   0  10
Kingsville        87  64  93  77  97  /  10   0  10   0  10
Navy Corpus       83  74  87  80  90  /  10   0  10   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

LB/84...AVIATION



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.