Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
871 FXUS64 KCRP 022341 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 641 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 636 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Given the current radar trends, most shower activity should diminish through the evening. Looking ahead to Thursday morning, hi-res models are resolving more scattered shower activity across the Coastal Bend through late morning. Given this, blended in 18Z HRRR guidance to throw in chances (20-30%) primarily from the Brush Country over toward the Victoria Crossroads. && .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 636 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 - Low (20-40%) chance of showers and thunderstorms through Thursday, diminishing this weekend. - Minor to moderate heat risk will continue into next week with heat index values peaking around 105 degrees, drink plenty of water. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Scattered showers with the occasional thunderstorm continues this afternoon due to 99th percentile moisture interacting with an inverted trough around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over Southeast Texas. Rain chances decrease tonight as stability increases. The aforementioned ridge weakens and slides southward into the western Gulf Thursday. However, above normal moisture and remnants of mid-level PVA will warrant low chances of showers and thunderstorms (20-40%) to continue through Thursday. It`s important to note that there are model discrepancies on Independence Day (Friday) with regards to mid-level features that may warrant a change in precipitation chances. Moisture and mid- level lift support decreases this weekend, leading to mainly rain- free conditions. Early next week, a weak mid-level low or inverted trough will advect westward from the northern Gulf to the Lower- Mid Texas Coast, returning low (20%) chances of precipitation. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 636 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Tonight, MVFR ceilings are expected to develop over the Brush Country, impacting ALI/COT/LRD, with IFR/LIFR potential over COT/ALI respectively between 09-14Z. Hi-res guidance shows showers ramping up from KALI northeastward toward KVCT through the morning, briefly reducing ceilings and slight reduction in visibility. In the afternoon, these showers become more sparse leading to VFR conditions in the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1234 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Gentle to moderate onshore flow (BF 3-4) and near 3 ft seas persist through Friday night. Winds relax to mostly gentle flow with 1-2 ft swell through the upcoming week. Chances for showers and thunderstorms primarily increase across the open waters from the upcoming week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 78 90 78 91 / 20 20 10 10 Victoria 75 91 76 92 / 20 30 10 10 Laredo 77 93 76 96 / 20 20 10 10 Alice 75 91 75 94 / 20 20 10 10 Rockport 80 89 81 90 / 30 20 10 10 Cotulla 77 93 77 97 / 20 40 30 20 Kingsville 76 90 76 92 / 20 20 10 10 Navy Corpus 81 88 81 88 / 20 20 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...EMF/94 AVIATION...AE/82