Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
087 FXUS64 KCRP 070522 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1222 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Key Messages: - Patchy morning fog possible tonight. Ridging aloft will continue to build through the short-term range with mostly rain-free conditions persisting across South Texas. Some pockets of deeper moisture will move over the Rio Grande Plains this afternoon/evening sparking convection along the way, but expecting most of the activity to stay west of the border. Much drier conditions arrive Friday into Friday night with PWATs falling below normal levels. Having said that, low level moisture will remain high enough for patchy fog development across portions of the Coastal Plains tonight under light and variable winds. In regards to the temperatures, these will be running a few degrees cooler at 850 mb allowing for surface temps to run slightly cooler during the daytime on Friday. The combination of the slightly drier air and cooler temperatures will in turn limit the spread of Heat Advisory conditions tomorrow. Nonetheless, a few locations could still reach Advisory criteria (110-114 degrees) tomorrow afternoon if a seabreeze develops, particularly those along inland portions of the southern coastal counties and into Jim Wells. After much consideration, have decided to hold off on issuance of another Coastal Flood Advisory for tonight into Friday morning`s high tide cycle. The main reason for the hold off is because swell periods, heights and winds have been subsiding through the day and this trend change is expected to limit the potential for coastal flooding. But, will pass it on to the evening shift for monitoring and further evaluation in case one is needed later on. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Mid-level ridging gradually shifts eastward across the region over the weekend and by Monday has lost its influence over South Texas. A shortwave is progged to pass across the area, and while moisture still looks low, could be enough to squeeze out a bit of convection Monday into Tuesday before ridging regains control. PoPs are minimal at this time, but may need to consider increasing if model agreement improves. GFS, as it frequently the case, is the most robust with rain chances while other models are drier. As far as temperatures, we will actually drop it back a notch this weekend and into next week. It`s still going to be hot - it is June in South Texas after all - but temperatures west will be mainly between 100 and 105 with 90s east. Heat index values are also looking mainly below 110 through much of the week. Overall the pattern is pretty typical with daily sea breeze pushing in clearing out clouds and bringing breezy southeasterly winds. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Mostly VFR conditions are expected tonight, however, some patch fog will likely develop after 09Z. The most likely areas to be impacted by any low clouds or reduced visibility to MFVR or brief IFR conditions are KALI and KVCT. Generally light winds will continue through the forecast period and any fog or low clouds should clear by 13Z, leading to VFR conditions areawide. && .MARINE... Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Weak onshore flow is expected through tonight increasing to weak to moderate onshore flow levels by Friday night. A weak to moderate onshore flow will persist into next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 94 76 93 78 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 96 73 96 75 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 101 75 101 77 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 98 74 97 75 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 93 81 92 80 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 102 74 103 76 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 97 75 95 76 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 91 81 90 82 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ANM LONG TERM....PH AVIATION...CLM