Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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169 FXUS64 KCRP 120524 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1224 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 350 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Key Messages: -Minor to moderate heat related impacts continue through Wednesday - Low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms this evening and again Wednesday A line of showers and thunderstorms is marching southwards from the Hill Country area. This is in association with a upper level disturbance in conjunction with an outflow boundary that is expected to move through the region this evening. With the system entering more of a stable atmosphere these showers and storms are expected to fizzle out as they enter into the CWA this evening. Can`t completely rule some storms holding together a little longer though anything that does move into the area should be out by midnight. Models depict the area still being under a trough tomorrow as the disturbance kicks to the east along with above normal moisture (1.9- 2.0 inches). This will allow for showers and thunderstorms to develop again tomorrow morning. Things will quiet down Wednesday evening though and translate to more seasonal conditions. Expect continued hot conditions through Wednesday. Heat indices look to be around 100 from the Brush Country to the Victoria Crossroads with around 108 along the southern Coastal Bend. Since conditions are expected to be similar tomorrow morning to what they were this morning, a tropical funnel cloud or two cannot be ruled out. If one does form, it will be very brief and likely no impact to the public, though still exercise caution. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 350 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Key Messages: - Dangerous heat returns early next week - Increasing moisture and rain chances next week Overall, not much change with this long term forecast update. We look to hang onto some low-end rain chances along the coast on Thursday as a H5 shortwave exits the region. Ridging quickly builds in and takes us into the weekend. Increased subsidence will promote rain-free conditions through Sunday. By Sunday, we end up with a weakness in the flow aloft as we are sandwiched in-between highs to our west and east and lows to our north and south. As we sit in this col, a developing inverted trough will spread deep tropical moisture across the region through early next week with PWATs likely exceeding 2.5". Chances for showers and thunderstorms will return on Sunday with chances gradually increasing through the middle of the week. We will need to keep a close eye on the Gulf next week regarding potential tropical development. There are some signs that a weak surface low may develop over the southwest Gulf early next week. It`s too early to determine any specific details but it does appear that some much needed rain is on the way. Taking a look at our temps, highs Thursday-Sunday will generally run between 90 along the coast to around 105 out west with heat indices between 105-109. By early next week, we see our risk for heat- related impacts climb back up as deep tropical moisture spreads inland resulting in heat indices from 110-114. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1038 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Showers and storms have largely moved out of the area. A few are still noted west of Laredo, but should stay away from that terminal. If any, it`ll be very light rain over the next hour. Tempo MVFR conditions possible for ALI and VCT toward morning. Have mention of VCSH for VCT and CRP in the afternoon. A TS mention may need to be added in later updates. There is also some potential for this convection along the sea breeze to reach ALI, but chances are lower there so have left out at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 350 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 A low to medium chance for showers and thunderstorms exists for Wednesday morning through the evening. Otherwise, weak to occasionally moderate onshore flow will continue as we head through the weekend. Onshore flow will increase early next week to more moderate levels. Deep tropical moisture will spread over the coastal waters late this weekend, leading to increase rain chances heading into the work week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 79 94 78 93 / 10 30 0 10 Victoria 76 92 74 95 / 40 40 0 10 Laredo 78 100 79 101 / 20 10 0 0 Alice 76 97 75 98 / 20 30 0 10 Rockport 81 92 80 93 / 20 40 0 10 Cotulla 78 99 79 101 / 30 10 0 0 Kingsville 78 96 77 95 / 10 30 0 10 Navy Corpus 82 91 82 91 / 10 40 10 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NP LONG TERM....TC AVIATION...PH/83