208
FXUS63 KGLD 241742
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1142 AM MDT Fri May 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Saturday is forecast to be similar to yesterday (Thursday)
  with critical fire weather conditions in the west and severe
  weather chances during the afternoon and evening hours. Large
  hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes possible.

- Warmer and potentially active pattern for next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 418 AM MDT Fri May 24 2024

For today, a relatively mild day is in store as the upper trough
continues to swing through the Northern Plains while the surface low
moves off to the east. With the colder air that moved in,
temperatures today are forecast to reach only the low to mid 70`s.
Winds should lower through the day as the surface pressure gradient
weakens. There could be a few showers with saturation around 500mb,
but the dry air below will limit how much can hit the ground and
likely lead to sprinkles.

Tomorrow, a fairly similar day to Thursday is forecast with another
upper trough swinging through the Northern Rockies with a surface
low developing and moving east into the area. The main difference
based on guidance is that the low may be a bit broader and move
further east. These differences would shift the chances for storms
to favor counties along the Nebraska border (north side of low) and
east of Highway 83 and maybe even east of Highway 283. There is
still a chance for storms to initiate as far west as the Colorado
border along the dryline, unless there is too much dry air as a
whole that prevents initiation (similar to Thursday). Otherwise,
storms would likely form with cold front passing through during the
evening hours. In short, this is looking very similar to yesterday
(Thursday), but maybe shifted a bit further east and north based on
the track of the low. The hazards would be hail to 2.75 inches
(especially with initial convection), damaging wind gusts to 70 mph
and a tornado or two.

Also in play Saturday is critical fire weather conditions. With an
advancing dryline, relative humidity is forecast to drop into the
low teens and wind gusts reach up to 30 mph. This has lead to a Fire
Weather Watch for Eastern Colorado, but with lesser confidence for
Yuma county with the low potentially being a bit further south.

Sunday, temperatures aren`t forecast to cool down too much behind
the front with highs still reaching near 80 as the overall pattern
remains a broad trough. Will need to watch for thunderstorms later
in the day with a potential shortwave, but the air may be too dry
for anything other than sprinkles.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 218 AM MDT Fri May 24 2024

Monday, an upper-level ridge will move in to the region from the
west and push out the remaining trough to the east. This ridge will
dominate the majority of the period, bringing warmer temperatures
and diurnal pop-up showers and storms. The showers and storms during
the majority of next week are generally expected to be scattered in
nature, although severe weather cannot be ruled out. PoPs will be
the highest (20-45%) in the northeastern CWA and taper off to the
southwest.

Temperatures will generally range from the mid 70s to upper 80s
throughout the period and lows will cool into the upper 40s and
50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1137 AM MDT Fri May 24 2024

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF
period. Surface winds will diminish at both terminals by early
this afternoon as high pressure moves across, then increase
again late tonight and especially Saturday morning as the
pressure gradient increases again.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for COZ252>254.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...024