001
FXUS63 KGLD 110915
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
315 AM MDT Sat May 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 20%-50% chances for showers/thunderstorms today, increasing to
  50%-70% tonight and 60%-80% Sunday associated with an
  approaching storm system.

- Average rainfall amounts today through Monday near 0.50" to
  1.25", highest south of a line from Norton to Sharon Springs.
  Add Key Message

- Unsettled pattern will continue to support chances of
  showers/thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 315 AM MDT Sat May 11 2024

Today-tonight...an upper level low pressure area currently over
northwest Arizona this morning is forecast to the four corners area
today then slowly east into south central Colorado tonight. The
first "wave" of moisture and precipitation chances moves in from the
southwest from very late this morning through this afternoon for
the entire area with the highest chances for measurable moisture
generally south of a Yuma to Russell Springs line where 30%-60%
pops are advertised. Another wave moves in tonight supporting
30%-70% chances for rainfall. The 00z NAM is showing a more
significant mid level dry slot when compared to the GFS/ECMWF
models and should it verify, we`ll have several hours of dry
conditions in between the waves. The 06z NAM is a bit more
aggressive on the mid level moisture. High temperatures are
forecast to range from the middle 60s to around 70 in far
eastern Colorado to around 80/low 80s from McCook to Norton and
Hill City east. Low temperatures fall into the middle 40s to
middle 50s.

Sunday-Sunday night...the upper level low is forecast to move from
south central Colorado in the morning northeast and over the Tri-
State area during the afternoon. Rainfall chances increase into the
60%-80% range. As the low moves slowly east into central
Kansas, precipitation chances slowly decrease from west to east
with 40%-70% pops are currently forecast. High temperatures are
forecast to be in the lower 60s to around 70. There could be
cooler readings across the northwest half of the area where a
more persistent wraparound rain/rain shower setup is possible,
limiting any sunshine. Low temperatures fall into the lower 40s
to lower 50s.

On average, rainfall amounts for this two day event range from about
0.40 inches across the northwest part of the area (Yuma county) to
1.00-1.25 inches (south of a line from Norton to Sharon Springs).

Monday-Monday night...currently, there is a 20%-50% chance of light
showers during the day before the storm completely exits the area
and short wave ridging moves in ahead of an upper level trough to
our northwest. High temperatures warm back into the 70s with low
temperatures in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 105 AM MDT Sat May 11 2024

For Tuesday, still forecasting a warm and potentially active day
with weak ridging ahead of an advancing upper trough. With the
ridging and generally westerly flow, warmer air is forecast to be
over the area with 850mb temps supporting highs in the low to mid
80`s. During the afternoon and evening hours, an area of low
pressure is forecast to develop over the area with a broad area of
surface convergence. This will provide an initiation point for
storms during the afternoon and evening hours. There could be severe
weather, though the effective shear is still generally forecast to
be below 30kts with the generally weak flow over the area. What
could allow severe weather is MUCAPE could reach 1500 J/KG and is
forecast to be uncapped. Currently the main threat would be hail
around an inch, but could turn more into a heavy rain and small hail
threat if shear stays closer to 20 kts and the surface convergence
remains broad.

Wednesday and beyond is more uncertain as guidance shows a large
spread in what becomes of the upper pattern. Even with the
uncertainty, it looks like Wed/Thu will be transition days similar
to the past few days as it is suggested that there will be another
larger wave moving east while a cut-off low trails over the Western
CONUS. It`ll just be a matter of how quickly it pushes off.
Currently have temps near average and some slight chance for
precipitation if smaller disturbances move through. Friday will
depend if the the progression of the upper pattern is slow (and
allows some ridging for warmer temperatures) or is quick and turns
more into a broad trough (probably near average temperatures). In
either case, there will still be some small chances for
precipitation as the upper flow would either be westerly or
northwesterly.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1015 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024

GLD: VFR conditions will prevail through the day on Saturday.
Expect mostly clear skies overnight through Saturday morning,
with ~4-5 KFT AGL ceilings developing Saturday afternoon.. when
showers may approach the terminal from the south. Sub-VFR
conditions associated with showers (perhaps a storm) are
expected near the end of the TAF period (00-06Z Sunday). Light
and variable winds will prevail overnight. Winds will shift to
the S-SSW late Saturday morning.. increasing to ~12-17 knots
during the afternoon.

MCK: VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period.. with
ceilings confined above ~8 KFT AGL. Light and variable winds
will prevail overnight. Winds will shift to the S-SSW late
Saturday morning.. modestly increasing to 10-15 knots during the
mid-late afternoon (~21Z).

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...BV