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000
FXUS63 KGLD 211913
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
113 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near to above average temperatures are forecast for the week.
  There could be daily small chances for rain/storms.

- Elevated fire weather conditions are possible Thursday in
  eastern Colorado.

- Chance for severe weather Thursday generally east of Highway
  283.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 237 AM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024

For today, the morning could start with some lingering clouds and
patchy fog across the area. Any fog should burn off a few hours
after sunrise, but the cloud cover could linger until the early
afternoon. Even if clouds linger, full mixing should be able to
occur, though temperatures may struggle to warm to 60 given the high
pressure that will be over the area.

Tomorrow is still forecast to be much warmer with temperatures
nearing 80 underneath sunny skies and with warm air advecting into
the area ahead of an upper disturbance. The warm and dry conditions
could allow RH to reach the teens, but critical fire weather
conditions either wouldn`t occur or occur briefly as winds are
forecast to struggle to reach 20-25 mph in a broad pressure
gradient. As the upper low and accompanying surface slow swing
through the area during the afternoon hours, there could be a few
storms that fire up along the surface convergence zone. If they did,
they`d likely be non-severe with generally less than a 1000 J/KG of
CAPE forecast and not much moisture available to help storms sustain
themselves.

Tuesday, current forecast calls for highs to be a bit lower than
Monday at around 70 with a slightly cooler air mass and high
pressure over the area. However, upper ridging is forecast to begin
building into the area which may allow temperatures to be a few
degrees warmer than currently forecast. Otherwise, dry conditions
are expected through the day unless a few storms can fire up over
the higher terrain in Colorado along with a potential weak shortwave
moving through during the evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 111 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Over the past 24 hours, the GFS, ECMWF, and CMC-NH have started
agreeing a lot more about timing of the system on Thursday. They now
show a moderately strong upper-level trough moving through the area
Thursday evening/night. At 850 mb, all three show a low pressure
system moving across the area between 21Z Thursday to 12Z Friday,
suggesting another nocturnal event. SPC has kept a 15% severe
weather outlook for our eastern area for this timeframe. There is
good agreement that an 850 mb moist conveyor belt will setup around
Thursday 0-6Z, feeding Gulf moisture into the eastern 1/3 to 2/3 of
the CWA, and continue until the cold front attached to the low moves
through. Confidence is increasing (~45%) for timing of this event;
late Thursday afternoon to Friday morning looks to bulk of the event.

This setup looks fairly similar to the event we had April 11th. A
dryline will form in the central CWA extending southward and move
east as the evening progress, firing storms as it does. East of the
dryline, moisture will be plentiful for storm growth and to the west
of the line, dry, breezy conditions are expected.

There are PoPs ranging from 20-70+ covering nearly all of the CWA
Thursday night. However, much like APR 11 system, majority of the
precipitation will fall in the northern CWA.

There is a risk of brief elevated fire weather for portions of
Cheyenne county in Colorado. RH values look to drop near 20% while
southerly winds gust up to 25-30 kts. The dryline, once again, will
be the deciding factor to what potential hazards any location could
see. RH values have increased with this round of guidance,
significantly lowering the risk of fire weather danger for Thursday.

Winds will generally be southerly, save for Friday when they will be
northwesterly behind the FROPA. Pressure changes with this system do
not seem to be as strong as what they were last week, thus current
confidence for High Wind is less than 10%. Gusts seem to max out
around 30-35 kts. The generally southerly winds will allow us to
keep temperatures a bit warmer overall. Thursday is expected to see
mid 70s to mid 80s. Friday through Sunday will be a bit cooler with
highs in the 70s to low 80s. Overnight temperatures will be in the
mid 40s to low 50s with a few places seeing upper 30s Friday night.

A weak ridge looks to build in from the southeast Friday night and
Saturday morning which will clear out any remaining precipitation.
This happens just ahead of another low pressure system that guidance
is showing will impact the area around Saturday night. Due to how
far away the event is, climatology, and forecast temperature trend,
we cannot rule out snow showers or severe weather moving over the
area with this second system.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1107 AM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Low ceilings may persist at KGLD for another hour or so, but by
mid afternoon VFR expected to prevail. At KMCK...VFR expected to
prevail through the TAF period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...KAK