Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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670 FXUS64 KLCH 172051 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA Issued by National Weather Service Brownsville TX 351 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 351 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 The latest radar and satellite imagery reveal partly to mostly cloudy skies and light showers streaming in from the southeast this afternoon. This activity will likely continue into the evening hours, but should remain below severe limits. An approaching shortwave, in combination with high moisture content and instability, will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms late tonight into early Saturday morning for areas along and south of I-10 and the Gulf waters. The latest suite of high res guidance indicates that the onset of any convective development is likely to be after 2-3AM for areas along and south of a Lake Charles to Lafayette line, and is expected to move east to southeast into early Saturday morning. Forecast model soundings support the potential for damaging wind gusts and large hail with any severe thunderstorms. In addition to the potential for severe weather, locally heavy rain may also bring a threat for flash flooding for areas along and south of a Lake Charles to Lafayette line. HREF guidance indicates additional amounts of 1-2 inches will be possible through early Saturday. With the highest rainfall amounts expected to fall further south of the Flood Watch configuration, the Flood Watch has been cancelled for this evening. While there still may be minor issues with recent rainfall, expect fairly light rainfall amounts through this evening. Otherwise, the combination of light winds and high moisture content may result in the development of patchy fog tonight. Expect cloudy skies with low temperatures in the 60s region wide tonight. Ridging is expected to build over the region heading into the weekend, which will bring an end to the unsettled weather pattern. Highs will be in the upper 80s and low 90s with low temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Thursday) Issued at 351 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 The work week will feature above normal temperatures with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s as high pressure and ridging prevail. In combination with the humidity, afternoon heat index values will rise into the mid to upper 90s each afternoon. Unsettled weather may return toward the end of the week as an upper level disturbance approaches, but most precipitation chances are expected to remain further north. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 The latest satellite and observations reveal MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibility, with brief periods of VFR across the region. Expect MVFR ceilings to persist through most of the afternoon, and return to IFR ceilings/visibility tonight. Additional thunderstorms may develop this afternoon, mainly near KBPT and KLCH. Otherwise, another round of convection will be possible between 06-12Z Saturday. && .MARINE... Issued at 351 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop across the coastal waters late tonight into early Saturday morning. Winds and seas could be significantly stronger in the vicinity of any thunderstorms. Light to moderate winds will result in gradually falling seas late this weekend into next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 64 87 67 89 / 30 10 0 0 LCH 68 86 70 89 / 40 10 0 0 LFT 70 86 71 91 / 60 10 0 0 BPT 67 88 70 91 / 30 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99/BRO LONG TERM....99/BRO AVIATION...99/BRO