876
FXUS63 KLMK 310507
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
107 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Dry weather and below normal to normal temperatures expected
    through Friday night.

*   Rain and storm chances return for the weekend and continue into
    next week. Temperatures and dewpoints will also be on a steady
    increase into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 227 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

High pressure slipping from the Great Lakes to the Appalachians will
continue our dry, pleasant weather tonight and tomorrow. Under clear
skies and with light winds, low temperatures tonight will range from
the mid 40s in the usual cool spots to the mid 50s generally west of
Interstate 65.

More sunshine can be expected tomorrow though it will be filtered
through increasing high clouds. Winds will pick up a bit out of the
east as the aforementioned high settles over the central and
northern Appalachians, with speeds around 5 to 10 mph. High
temperatures will range from the mid 70s to around 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 227 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

On Saturday a 5H shortwave trough will approach from the west as
surface low pressure advances from Missouri to Indiana, dragging its
cold front through the region Saturday night. A 50kt low level jet
will help to bring slightly above normal precipitable waters into
the area as surface dew points rise into the lower and middle 60s.
As a result, scattered showers and storms are expected to cross the
area. Instability and mid-level lapse rates should be weak and
organized severe weather is not currently expected, with better
chances for strong to severe storms over western Kentucky and points
south and west. High temperatures will be around 80.

For the remainder of the Long Term a summertime pattern will
establish itself right on time as June begins with quasi-zonal flow
over much of the United States. At the surface the Gulf will be open
and provide the region with sufficient moisture to support showers
and thunderstorms when ripples in the flow pass through and at times
of peak heating. The result of this will be rain chances in most
periods of the forecast, but with the showery nature of the
precipitation there will be breaks between rounds of convection. The
best chances of severe storms will be over the Plains where
instability will be greatest, though some of that instability may
begin to spread eastward by Tuesday and especially into Wednesday
and Wednesday night as a cold front approaches from the northwest
and moves through.

With the summer pattern comes summer temperatures and humidity as
highs rise into the 80s each day with afternoon dew points from the
mid 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 106 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

High pressure across the region will keep VFR conditions through the
period, with only some upper level clouds to speak of. A fairly dry
column will limit the diurnal cu field today, with this TAF issuance
mainly a wind forecast. As the sfc high migrates slowly east across
the Great Lakes, winds will be around 10 kt from due east for most
of the day. Upper level ceiling will begin to arrive from the west
towards the end of the period ahead of our next sfc low.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...CJP