Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 261646

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1246 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Hot and humid conditions will persist into the weekend as upper-
level ridging centered over the Virginias and Carolinas remains in
control. The low-level jet over the Mississippi Valley has struggled
to produce any nocturnal convection, and today`s precip forecast
will hinge on how far westward the influence of ridging can win out.

Surface pattern is quite sloppy, making it difficult to identify any
boundaries to focus convection. Precipitable water values will
remain well above climo, but with the moisture concentrated in the
boundary layer, and convective temps in the lower 90s, believe
afternoon convection will remain isolated at best. Have limited POPs
today mainly to southern Indiana and west of I-65 in Kentucky.

Tonight into Saturday we`ll be closer to the periphery of the upper
ridge, so we could see nocturnal convection creep into west-central
Kentucky and southern Indiana around daybreak Saturday. If this
comes to pass, we could see a few boundaries to give an additional
kick to Saturday afternoon convection that would otherwise struggle.

Outside of any convection, very warm and muggy conditions will
continue, with temps several degrees above climo and afternoon heat
indices around 100.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Strong upper-level ridge will remain parked along the mid-Atlantic
coast for the latter half of the weekend, and then gradually break
down through the work week. For at least Sunday, will continue the
theme of 20-30 POPs focused on afternoon peak heating, and west of
I-65. POPs will be lowest across the Bluegrass region where ridging
aloft is the strongest.

Mon-Tue will be a transition as the ridging drops a bit to the
south, but still cannot push a surface boundary into the Ohio
Valley. Less capping will mean a bit more convective coverage, but
will still keep it in the chance category. Temps will still be able
to touch 90 each afternoon, with heat indices pushing 100.

Around mid-week a northern stream low digs into eastern Canada and
some faster NW flow aloft will start to impinge on the area. Could
see a slight break in heat and humidity, but we`ll still be at or
above climo. Forecast confidence is limited depending on the
eventual development and track of 99L, which is currently over the
SE Bahamas.


.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1245 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2016

High pressure aloft will remain in place across the region through
this TAF period. For this afternoon this will bring light winds.
Scattered cu has developed and will persist through the afternoon.
There is an isolated chance for a shower or storm near BWG or SDF,
but the possibility is too low to mention in the TAFs at this time.
For tonight some light fog will be possible once again at LEX and
BWG. The best chance for any light fog will be at BWG, but think
visibility will mainly stay in the MVFR range.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........RAS
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