Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 251855

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
255 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016

.Short Term (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Expect quiet weather tonight and Wednesday. Clouds will be on the
increase later Wednesday though as our next cold front approaches.
This one will be a quick mover with a moderate amount of moisture
associated with it. Models have trended a little slower with the
passage, making less of a rain chance over south KY. Will be going
with chance-range values, 30-50%, across the north half, and lower
down south...with lower QPF average totals areawide. Still have some
elevated instability on the forecast soundings, so will keep in
isolated thunder.

Temperatures ahead of the front will be warm again, going roughly 10
degrees above normal. Lows tonight again will be chilly in our east.
Some patches of frost are possible in our northeast Bluegrass
counties. Lows Thursday night will remain warm ahead of the front,
likely mid to upper 50s.

.Long Term (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Will have lingering rain chances behind the front Thursday morning
and perhaps into the afternoon in our east, but again looking at
light totals. High pressure will cross the region Thursday night.
The calm conditions and current forecast temperatures would indicate
low 40s again in our cold spots, so will have to watch how forecast
changes next couple of days to see if frost again is a factor.

Warmer conditions return Friday as that high shifts to our east and
southerly winds and ridging aloft build back in. New GFS looks
similar to 00Z Euro for the weekend, keeping us dry and warm. Both
show a dry front crossing us late Sunday, but no real airmass change
behind it. The 12Z Euro came in a with light QPF ahead of the front,
but will keep our forecast dry for now.

Another front looks to cross Tuesday, but moisture with this system
is in question too. Will continue with the "drought" forecast
thinking until our atmosphere shows us otherwise.


.Aviation (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 100 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016

VFR conditions will persist this TAF period. Winds will generally be
from the east at 5-10 knots during the day, but weaken some at
night, and then become more southerly during the day Wednesday.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........RJS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.