Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 240114
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
914 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

...Updated Aviation and Forecast Discussions...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 905 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2014

High cirrus clouds, some pretty thick, have overspread much of the
Commonwealth and will help keep our lows a bit warmer than earlier
this morning. Patchy fog will not be as widespread as it was earlier
this morning as well. Lows will fall into the lower to mid 40s.


.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Latest water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb heights shows
ridging across the Ohio Valley with a weak shortwave trough moving
through the mid-Mississippi Valley. At the surface, high pressure is
centered across Kentucky/Ohio with mostly sunny skies and seasonably
cool temperatures this afternoon.

The aforementioned shortwave trough will swing through the area
this evening through Friday morning, bringing an increase in
mid/high level clouds. 23.12z guidance remains consistent with
previous forecast runs showing that as this system approaches, the
very dry mid and low levels will keep precipitation threat at a
minimum. Looking at hi-res models, some show hint of light rain or
sprinkles moving in from the northwest overnight, but expecting this
to be mainly virga. Kept previous dry forecast going for the area
but could not rule out a sprinkle or two early Friday morning.
Despite the increased cloud cover tonight, lows look to range from
the lower to middle 40s.

The upper level pattern on Friday becomes more northwesterly in the
wake of the shortwave trough. Plan on morning high clouds to give
way to mostly sunny skies by afternoon with seasonable temperatures.
The overall airmass will slowly moderate and this should allow
temperatures to climb a few degrees higher compared to today. 850 mb
temps rise from +8C to around +10C which supports highs in the
middle to upper 60s. Overall another pleasant October day for the
region.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

The long term will begin with northwesterly flow aloft and a weak
front moving through the area. This frontal passage should be dry
with just an increase in clouds expected. Behind the front high
pressure will build in at the surface and weak ridging will build in
aloft. Highs through the weekend will range from the upper 60s
across the Bluegrass to the mid 70s around the Bowling Green area.
Lows will warm from the mid and upper 40s Sunday morning to the
lower 50s Monday morning.

High pressure will shift off to the east Monday and a low pressure
system will approach from the west. Southerly winds will usher in
warmer air. Highs on Monday look quite warm, topping out in the
upper 70s to around 80. Lows will be on the warmer side as well on
Tuesday morning, only dropping into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

The aforementioned low pressure system will continue to move off to
the northeast through midweek, swinging a cold front through the
area. The models are in much better agreement with timing today. The
best chance for rain and a few thunderstorms looks to be Tuesday
night across the region, so have bumped up pops to 50-60% for this
time frame. Showers will continue across east central KY Wednesday
morning as the front begins to slow. There may be a few showers in
the Lake Cumberland region Wednesday night if the front stalls near
the KY/TN border as well.

Temperatures Tuesday will remain quite warm, though with cloud cover
and precipitation moving in they are not expected to be as high as
Monday. Highs should top out in the lower to mid 70s. Wednesday will
be some 10 degrees cooler behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 700 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

An upper level shortwave trough will move in from the west tonight.
This system will spread high level clouds eastward over the TAF
sites overnight and into the morning hours. Occasional broken
ceilings above 4k ft may develop Friday afternoon with any ceilings
remaining above the MVFR threshold.

Think that fog development will be limited early Friday morning due
to increasing high and mid-level clouds arriving during the pre-dawn
hours. For now, included a MVFR group at BWG and kept SDF VFR
with the idea that the cloud cover will preclude extensive fog
development.

Light and variable winds overnight will stay light but become
westerly at under 7kt Friday afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....ZBT
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......JSD





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