Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 210453
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1253 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2015

Showers will dissipate early this evening and gusty winds will relax
to around 5-10 mph for the overnight as today`s cold front pulls
away. Under partly cloudy skies temperatures will fall into the
lower 40s...about five degrees colder than normal.

Scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm will be possible once
again by Tuesday afternoon with some weak instability, increasing
moisture, and upper troffing.  However, the bigger story on Tuesday
may be the wind.  By late morning into mid afternoon we could see
WSW winds gusting to 30-40 mph.  Discussed the possibility of a Wind
Advisory with neighboring offices, but decided to hold off for now.
Afternoon cloudiness is expected in conjunction with that chance of
showers, which would limit mixing.  High temperatures will be in the
lower and middle 60s.

Scattered showers will remain in the forecast Tuesday night as a
cold front approaches from the northwest. Low temperatures will be
in the middle and upper 40s. The gusty winds from earlier in the day
will decrease to around 10 mph from the southwest.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2015

In a break from the previous three weeks, the extended period looks
to be cool and damp, but not necessarily wet. This should help
waterlogged areas dry out a bit. The main upper level feature will
be a closed low over eastern Canada, progged by all the models to
only wobble from near Lake Superior Wednesday morning to the
Atlantic coastline by Monday. Another upper low over the southwest
U.S. will help split the flow, but for now it appears the Ohio
Valley will be influenced by the northern part of this split flow,
keeping the region in relatively cool air riding south from Canada.

A few ripples in the flow will help generate showers over the region
Wednesday along a weak cold front that will swing through the area.
Another chance for rain returns for Saturday.  While thunder can`t
be ruled out with either of these short waves, it looks pretty safe
to say that the risk of severe thunderstorms will be next to nil.
Precip-wise, amounts should remain on the light side, though the
ECMWF does try to open up the Gulf of Mexico for Saturday. The GEM
and GFS, though, do not bring Gulf moisture up, so this remains to
be seen.

Temperatures through the period will be at or below seasonal norms
and vary only slightly. Most highs will be in the 60s, while lows
will be mainly in the 40s.  A few readings could dip into the upper
30s in southern Indiana, but for now it would not appear that frost
would be likely.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1250 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2015

VFR conditions are expects at all the terminals.  Main aviation
concern on Tuesday will be gusty southwesterly winds with sustained
winds of 15-18kts and gusts up to 30kts at times.  Some scattered
showers are possible Tuesday afternoon, however coverage appears too
sparse to mention in the TAFs at this time. Gusts should subside
some in the evening, but 10-15 knot sustain winds should remain to
the end of the TAFs.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........JBS
Aviation..........RJS




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