Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 250156
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
856 PM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 856 PM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

This evening a cold front reaches from Michigan to Missouri to New
Mexico. Regional radars are showing low dBZ reflectivities aloft
across Missouri and southern Illinois, sliding to the east. However,
dry air below 700mb is eating up most, if not all, of the
hydrometeors well before they reach the ground. This will likely
continue as the mid and high clouds move eastward tonight, in
agreement with several short term forecast models that show us dry
overnight. Any sprinkles that make it all the way down to the ground
will be isolated.

Temperatures are running quite a bit warmer than expected so far
this evening. With cloud cover increasing overnight and southerly
winds continuing ahead of that cold front, will go ahead and up MinT
a bit, with the exception of the valleys where dense cold air has
yet to be scoured out by the southerly breezes, as evidenced by
some of the Kentucky Mesonet sites.

&&

.Short Term...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 200 PM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

Seeing our pressure gradient tighten ahead of a cold front moving
into the Upper Midwest now. We should see high clouds increase again
ahead of this feature, some time later this evening. Low-level
moisture profiles still are quite dry, but by daybreak we could see
enough moistening to get a few sprinkles through mid morning. Even
the WRF-ARW and WRF-NMM now have backed off on measurable precip,
save for a small stripe along the KY/TN border.  The added cloud
cover and steady southerly winds will mean warmer lows, likely
dropping to the lower to mid 40s for most locations.

We will have a small window to warm up during the late morning/early
afternoon hours Saturday before the northwest winds bring in the
cooler air. By late night though, high pressure will ridge across
the region, bringing lighter winds again. Highs should be in the mid
to upper 50s and lows Sunday morning will get back to around
freezing.

&&

.Long Term...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

High pressure will remain over the region Sunday, bringing one cool
day. Then it will shift east and we will start a warmup which should
keep us above normal Mon-Wed. Then on Wed. night, a shortwave trough
looks to rush through the Midwest, potentially bringing a quick
round of showers. A stronger trough looks to move in late Thu. into
Fri. bringing better precipitation chances Thursday as well as more
significant cold air.

&&

.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 656 PM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

Currently, the eastern half of central Kentucky remains under a
broken layer of mid and high level clouds. These clouds will
continue to work their way out to the east as a cold front to the
northwest works towards southern Indiana and central Kentucky. This
cold front will bring more high level clouds to the area after
midnight. Winds are out of the south and will move to the northwest
as the front moves through tomorrow morning. The main threat during
the overnight hours will be low level wind shear of 45-50 knots. The
direction of the shear will change over several degrees as the wind
direction moves north with the approaching front.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Update...13
Short Term...RJS
Long Term...RJS
Aviation...KDW



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