Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 282258
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
658 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

IN THE NEAR TERM, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WERE NOTED ACROSS SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.  TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO AND THEN COOL INTO THE 70S THIS EVENING.  MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS BEING MUCH MILDER THAN WHAT WE`VE
PREVIOUSLY SEEN.  LOWS SHOULD COOL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MORE OF A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW EVENT WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  TWO AREAS
OF POSSIBLE CONVECTION LOOK TO BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS DUE
TO AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL WAVE, AND DOWN ACROSS OUR SOUTH WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHING IN.  OVERALL FORCING STILL LOOKS
RATHER LIMITED, BUT COVERAGE OF 15-20% LOOKS REASONABLE AND CURRENT
DATA SUGGESTS THAT FOR THE UPCOMING FORECAST.  IT WILL BE A BIT
WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID 80S IN THE NORTH WITH
MID-UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH.  A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SUNDAY - MONDAY...

DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY, AHEAD OF A PASSING SHORTWAVE TO OUR NORTH AND A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THESE INGREDIENTS SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH FOCUS FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO END THE WEEKEND AND START THE NEW
WORK WEEK. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, OVERALL DEEP LAYER
FLOW WILL BE WEAK SO DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORM
ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER, SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW AND MID 80S ON SUNDAY, CLIMBING TO
THE MID AND UPPER 80S BY MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 60S.

MONDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
COUNTRY THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMER/DRIER PERIOD
UNDER THIS PATTERN. CANT RULE OUT A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
WITH HEATING ALONE ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING, HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP FORECAST DRY DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY EVIDENT TRIGGERING
MECHANISM.

LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 EACH AFTERNOON, WITH
MILDER LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

THURSDAY - FRIDAY...

LOW CONFIDENCE TO END THE WORK WEEK, ALTHOUGH WILL AT LEAST INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO BE
UNCAPPED OR WEAKLY CAPPED. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 658 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  SOME HIGH CLOUDS
PUSHING THROUGH TONIGHT COUPLED WITH AT LEAST A LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD HELP LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME CU DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT LIMITED COVERAGE PRECLUDES A MENTION IN
THE CURRENT TAF FORECAST.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........MJ
LONG TERM.........BJS
AVIATION..........KJD



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