Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 252309

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
709 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 240 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Surface analysis this afternoon showed high pressure squeezed across
the lower Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys. Meanwhile, a secondary
cold front lies across central Illinois and central Indiana, pushing
southeast toward our region. Latest visible satellite imagery
reveals mostly sunny skies across southern Kentucky while a few fair
weather cumulus clouds have developed across southern Indiana and
northern Kentucky. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to
lower 80s and combined with dewpoints in the 40s, it is a very
pleasant late June afternoon.

The aforementioned cold front will drop through our area this
afternoon, bringing with it another invigorating, crisp push of
Canadian air for the short term period. As winds subside this
evening and with mostly clear skies, there should be good
radiational cooling conditions and Monday morning temperatures
will be in the 50s. The coolest readings, low 50s, will be found
across the rural areas especially around the Bluegrass region.

For Monday into Tuesday, cyclonic flow aloft will continue the
seasonably cool temperatures across the area. Plan on highs in the
mid to upper 70s Monday. Embedded within the cyclonic flow are a
few impulses that may bring some mid/high level cloudiness at
times during the day. A slightly stronger shortwave trough will
drop down Monday night into Tuesday morning. This feature will be
working into a less than favorable environment with plenty of dry
air but there should be enough forcing for isolated to scattered
showers and perhaps a thunderstorm across parts of the area.
Overall, rainfall amounts will be light and spotty so have
continued to advertise 20-40 percent coverage. Lows Monday night
will be in the 50s to near 60.

.Long Term...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Surface high pressure will dominate the early parts of the long term
period, which will continue the stretch of seasonable temperatures
and lower humidity across the area Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Zonal to weak ridging aloft will develop Wednesday afternoon. As the
surface high departs to the east, southerly return flow will bring
temperatures back up to near normal - mid 80s. Meanwhile, several
waves of low pressure tracking across the Upper Midwest will allow
for deeper mixing locally so afternoon wind gusts will pick up to
around 20-25 mph at times Wednesday and Thursday.

More summer-like weather will develop toward the end of the upcoming
work week as  Gulf moisture is lifted northward. Dewpoints will
creep back up into the 60s and low 70s at times. This environment
will support the chances for showers and storms, especially Friday
onward into next weekend.


.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 708 PM EDT Sun June 25 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the upcoming TAF period.  Batch
of mid-high level clouds will likely stream into the region late
tonight, but will not have any effects on aviation.  Winds will
remain elevated for a few hours this evening and then become light
and variable overnight.  Winds will pick up again on Monday out of
the northwest with speeds of less than 5 knots.


Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Here are some record low max and record low climate data for the
early part of next week for SDF, LEX, and BWG ASOS sites.

Record Lows        Louisville      Lexington       Bowling Green
June 26th              52              52                51
June 27th              52              51                52
June 28th              53              50                50

Record Low Max     Louisville      Lexington       Bowling Green
June 26th              68              66                75




Short Term...ZT
Long Term....ZT
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