Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 291838
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
238 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

A cold front will move across the Commonwealth tonight, but with the
air behind it originating from the Pacific, temperatures Monday will
actually rise a few degrees above this afternoon`s temperatures.

Robust northwest flow at 500mb is currently present over the eastern
CONUS. A sharp trough will cross the Great Lakes tonight. Brisk
southerly winds will continue through early this evening across
southern Indiana and the Commonwealth, with some gusts approaching
25 mph. Winds will veer to the northwest behind this boundary for
Monday, generally staying around 10mph or so.

Skies will rather quickly cloud over this evening, and a few hours
of light rain will accompany the front tonight. Precipitation will
start over southern Indiana early this evening and will exit our
southern counties during the early morning hours. Rainfall amounts
will be quite light, with everyone receiving less than one quarter
of an inch. Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s across the
Bluegrass to the lower 40s west of Interstate 65.

Skies will clear around dawn Monday, and will continue through
Monday night. Highs Monday will range from the upper 50s across the
Bluegrass and southeastern Indiana to the lower to mid 60s near
Bowling Green.


.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

A cold front will cross the region Tuesday/Tuesday night as low
pressure advances front the Great Lakes to the Delaware Valley.
There is very little moisture and only some weak forcing with this
system, and the majority of model solutions have been dry with the
fropa.  While a shower or two can`t be ruled out, especially across
southern Kentucky Tuesday evening, will stick with silent Pops for
now.

A few showers will again be possible late Wednesday night as a warm
front lifts across the area. A complex weather system, or, more
likely, series of systems, will affect us Thursday through Friday
night.  The details are still very murky, but in general it looks
like we`ll have one round of showers and thunderstorms come through
Thursday/Thursday night and then another Friday/Friday night.  Of
the two days, Friday may stand a better shot at any strong storms
given better energy aloft and better moisture availability.
However, widespread clouds and rain may limit instability.  The
better surface-based instability will actually occur on Thursday,
and sounding progs for that day show some mid-level dry air
available.  Obviously, though, it`s much too early to say anything
definitive.  Just something interesting to watch.

The weekend looks cool but pleasant as high pressure rolls from the
central Plains to the Carolina coast.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 100 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Brisk southerly winds averaging 12 to 15kt with gusts up to 23kt
will continue through early evening before diminishing to around
10kt and veering to the southwest. After midnight, winds will switch
to the northwest, while remaining at or below 10kt.

High and mid-level clouds will lower and thicken early this evening
ahead of a surface trough. VFR ceilings will lower to high end MVFR
as light rain develops at SDF and LEX in the 9pm to 1am timeframe.
At BWG, expect light rain around 11pm to 3am. Rainfall rates will
not significantly reduce visibilities.

MVFR ceilings will continue until skies clear from north to south
near dawn Monday morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........JSD





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