Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
FXUS63 KLMK 240722
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
322 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2015
.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2015
Quiet short term, with ridging aloft and high pressure at the
surface. We should see a steady warm up of 2-3 degrees each day.
Moisture will slowly increase as well, but we should get at least
one more day with dewpoints around 60 along and north of the I-64
corridor. Expect dewpoints in the mid 60s for Saturday, which should
make it feel a little muggier out there, but heat indices will stay
pretty close to the actual temperatures.
.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2015
Not many changes in the long term forecast. We`ll end the weekend
mainly dry with upper level ridging over much of the region. Our
southern IN/far northern KY counties may see some isld convection
closer to the periphery of the ridge Sat night-Sun night where weak
upper level shortwaves will be present and capping will be weaker.
For Mon/Tues, models indicate ridging will continue to build just to
our west putting us on the NE periphery which will be susceptible to
showers/storms mainly during diurnal peak times
(afternoon/evening). Wind profiles are favorable for pulse type
storms that could contain heavy rainfall given slow storm motions.
By mid to late week, the ridge will flatten as a low pressure system
traversing southern Canada pushes a cold front across the central
U.S. in a flatter flow with a slight upper trough. This front
should bring better coverage of storms to the Ohio Valley some time
late Wed into Thurs. The front will be in a weakening state as it
enters our region, so not looking for an organized threat for any
severe weather attm. However, strong storms will certainly be
possible with an increase in wind profiles and good instability.
Temperatures should range through the upper 80s to mid 90s for highs
for the upcoming week. The hottest day looks to be Wed right ahead
of the front. Heat indices will be maximized above 100 degrees Wed
afternoon with moisture pooling ahead of the front. Low temps will
range through the mid 60s to mid 70s next week.
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated 100 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2015
Satellite imagery shows some clouds around 5 kft near the BWG
terminal, and proximity of these clouds will have a factor in what
kind of vsby restrictions we end up with later this morning.
Temp/dewpoint depression already pretty low, so it will not take
much for some fog to form. Will keep the MVFR/IFR wording in as
previous forecast. Rest of the sites should be quiet with a light
breeze, given a weak pressure gradient across the region.