Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 151621
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1121 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2017

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1120 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2017

Solid north to northwest winds out there this morning, with good
sunshine generally north of I-64 and a cumulus field south. Ongoing
forecast is on track, and will issue a zone update just to remove
the slight rain chances along our border with TN.

&&

.Short Term...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2017

An upper level trough and sfc low passing mainly to our south will
continue to provide light rain to south central KY through about
sunrise.  Expect the light rains to move out around or just after
sunrise.  For the rest of the day, expect clearing skies especially
by this afternoon with highs in the 40s.

For tonight and Thu, sfc high pressure will move in while a broad
upper trough over the area will losen its grip.  This will result in
dry conditions with moderating temps.  Lows tonight look to be in
the mid to upper 20s with highs on Thu looking to range from mid 40s
to mid 50s.

.Long Term...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2017

...Warm Weather on the Way...

Friday - Saturday...

An upper level ridge axis will move into the region on Fri helping
temps warm into the upper 50s to mid 60s for highs under mostly
sunny skies.

By Sat, a quick moving upper low will push through the Ohio Valley
bringing a few light rounds of rain to the region Sat/Sat night.
Increased clouds and rain showers should hold temps in the upper
50s/low 60s.  Lows will range through the 40s.

Sunday - Tuesday...

For the beginning of next week, expect unseasonably warm temps as a
strong upper ridge pushes eastward from the central U.S. into the
Ohio Valley.  Mostly sunny skies and strong height rises will result
in highs in the upper 60s/lower 70s Sun/Mon!  This is close to about
20 degrees above normal for this time of year.  Lows will hold in
the mid to upper 40s.

Tuesday onward the forecast becomes quite uncertain as long range
models differ greatly on how a strong upper low will move east
across the southern U.S.   The latest 0Z runs of the GFS/ECMWF keep
our area mainly dry Tues/Wed.  However, the  0Z Canadian and overall
model blend indicates a low chance for rain showers Tues/Wed next
week.  Kept the model blend POPs but this forecast period will
certainly need to be adjusted as details become more clear.

&&

.Aviation...(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 548 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2017

High pressure will begin to build in today in the wake of a front
and upper level disturbance moving through. Mostly mid and high
clouds will stream across the region today with skies becoming
mostly clear by this evening. Winds will be out of the northwest and
will become gusty by mid morning. They will relax again towards
sunset tonight.


&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Update...RJS
Short Term...AMS
Long Term...AMS
Aviation...EER



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