Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 170334

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1034 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1035 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017

Second wave making steady progress into central KY and IN this hour,
with a few ticks of lightning. Expect as the low-level jet kicks up,
Evansville radar now showing 50 knot southerly winds at 2,000 feet,
we will see a few more ticks with elevated instability. Surface
winds are increasing, as seen by the Kentucky Mesonet over western
KY this hour. Did one more zone update with current trends and
rainfall totals.

Issued at 810 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017

Wave one of rain almost has cleared our eastern counties, whereas
wave two is impinging on our southwest Indiana counties now. Expect
this band to bring rains and some rumbles of thunder to the I-65
corridor just before midnight. Some of the high-res models are
painting a third band over southern Indiana by daybreak as well.
Temperatures likely have bottomed out for lows, with readings
expected to go up through the night behind increasing southerly
winds. Updated the forecast for the latest trends.


.Short Term...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 245 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017

A low pressure system moving ENE through the upper Midwest will drag
a cool front through the area Tues.  Ahead of this front, light rain
showers have started mainly west of I-65 as of 230pm.  Expect the
rain to continue to spread east throughout the night as the front
approaches.  Also, elevated isld-sct t-storms will be possible as
forcing increases closer to the frontal boundary tonight.  With a 40-
50 kt LLJ just off the sfc, any shower or storm could mix down a
strong wind gust.  However, no severe wx is expected.  Outside of
convection, southerly winds of 10-15 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph
will be common late tonight through Tues afternoon until the front
passes east of our region Tuesday evening.

Tuesday night, rain showers will come to an end but low level
moisture will remain plentiful under a good inversion and may result
in light drizzle behind the front Tues night into Wed morning.

Temperatures will be mild tonight only dropping into the mid to
upper 50s for lows.  Expect upper 50s to mid 60s for highs Tues with
some areas over southern Indiana experiencing highs early in the
afternoon and then remaining steady or dropping Tues afternoon.
Behind the front, lows will drop into the mid 30s to lower 40s Tues

.Long Term...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017

...A Rainy, Mild Pattern will continue through the Weekend...

Wednesday - Friday...

Behind the departing low pressure system, low clouds will hang
around for much of Wed.  By Wed night, we may see a break in the
cloud cover for a period but expect more clouds to move in from the
south as an upper low pulls a warm front north towards our region.

Rains associated with this weather system will impact our region Wed
night through Fri with the best shot at steady rains with embedded t-
storms being Thu night.

Temps for Wed will be limited to the mid 40s to low 50s for highs
and then warm into the upper 50s/lower 60s for highs by Fri in the
warm sector behind the rain.

Saturday - Monday...

A strong southerly flow in place for Sat will help the area warm up
into the low to mid 60s!  With dry weather expected on Saturday, it
will be an unusually warm, pleasant day for mid Jan.

More rain chances look to arrive for the beginning of next week as a
strong low pressure system barrels east across the Ohio Valley. This
weather system could again bring t-storm chances for Sun.

Temps will be very mild to start the week and then trend cooler
behind this low pressure system.


.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Updated at 630 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017

One wave of light rain showers is passing the terminals this hour.
Additional instability will move through overnight, as a low-level
jet cranks up as well. Expect some potential for thunder roughly
from 5-12Z at the sites, with ceilings deteriorating through the
night hours. They should bottom out near the IFR/MVFR threshold
before some improvement comes by late morning at all sites. Winds
will pick up aloft and have low-level wind shear in the TAFs. Those
winds will translate down in gusts by daybreak Tuesday, with peak
gusts of 15-25 knots.




Short Term...AMS
Long Term...AMS
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