Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 141748

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
148 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Forecast confidence is actually the lowest in the near-term, as hi-
res models are continuing to struggle with the impact of an upper
shortwave swinging across the Ozarks. Spotty light precip continues
to break out over southern Illinois and western Kentucky and
Tennessee, but has not been able to blossom in either intensity or
coverage. Environment is a bit less favorable heading north and east
into central Kentucky, but even with dewpoints pushing 70 south of
the Parkways, we still have yet to see measurable precip.

Still expect an increase in coverage as the upper wave moves east
and the air mass continues to modify, but even scattered
showers/isolated T-storms is starting to seem generous. However,
even if we do scale back POPs, there should be enough cloud cover
for most of the day to limit max temps to the lower 80s across most
of the area.

Lingering precip over south-central and east-central KY this evening
will exit to the east, with dry conditions expected overnight and
continuing on Tuesday for all but far southern Kentucky. Warming
trend in overnight lows will continue, and high temps on Tuesday
could touch 90 for the first time in nearly two weeks.

.Long Term (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Tuesday Night - Thursday Night...

Increasingly warm, muggy, and unsettled weather is expected through
the middle of the week. Deeper SW flow sets up on Wednesday as upper
ridging tries to build out of the Deep South. Will carry low chance
POPs in the warm advection pattern.

A strengthening upper shortwave passes well to our north on
Thursday, but develops enough of a negative tilt to support more
numerous and stronger storms ahead of its associated cold front. Not
expecting organized severe, but a few storms will produce heavy
rainfall and perhaps locally gusty winds. Temps will continue to
push 90 each afternoon, with mins solidly above climo in the humid
SW flow.

Friday - Sunday...

Weak front pushes through on Friday and gives way to a bubble of
high pressure for at least the first half of the weekend. Models
diverge after that as the ECMWF settles a broad upper trof over the
Great Lakes, while GFS is more progressive and brings another
disturbance in for Sunday. Low-confidence forecast, but for now will
have precip exiting on Friday and a dry day on Saturday, then just
slight chances Sat night into Sunday. Temps will run near normal for
this time of year.


.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

A shortwave passing to our south will continue to provide rain
showers over the area through this evening.  BWG may even see a
rumble of thunder this afternoon.  The shortwave should exit to the
east with showers diminishing late tonight.  However, fog and low
cigs look to become a problem late tonight with BWG declining to
MVFR and LEX declining to IFR between approx 8-15Z.  Conditions
should improve to MVFR/VFR by 18Z tomorrow.  Winds will be
predominantly light vrb throughout the TAF period.




Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......RAS
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