Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 291043

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
643 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Expect a pleasant and seasonably cool start to the day. Clouds will
increase however as low pressure over northwest Texas begins to
shift into the Central Plains. Flow aloft will shift to
southwesterly by this afternoon, allowing a stream of moisture into
the region. A weak northerly wind with that cloud cover should help
keep temperatures a little cooler than yesterday, with highs
generally staying in the mid to upper 70s.

Precipitation with this moisture feed should hold off till late this
evening/overnight. A rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out with this
precip...especially west of I-65. Widespread coverage of rain should
reach the rest of the region in the morning hours Saturday before
coverage starts to scatter out as the warm front lifts northward. By
late afternoon, expect the front to be north of the Ohio River. Rain
and cloud cover should keep temperatures again in the 70s, though
some of south central KY may see 80 depending on how much we scatter

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Low pressure will move out of the Plains and spread out roughly
along the Ohio River by daybreak Sunday. Given its proximity to our
region and the moisture in place, showers and storms still appear
likely. An upper trough crossing the Midwest later in the day Sunday
should provide enough lift for some stronger storms, but there is
still uncertainty in whether previous rains/cloud cover will limit
any potential for severe weather, outside of perhaps some hail.
Given rains over the past couple of days, will continue to watch for
hydro issues this weekend. QPF totals for that time frame continue
to range from 1-2 inches.

Sunday night, the surface trough should make it into the
Appalachians, but another vortmax aloft could make for a few more
light rain showers overnight. Those showers could linger in our
southeast counties Monday, but otherwise the region should be dry.
Next up is a trough forecast to move into the area Tuesday. Forecast
models yesterday at this time had this trough dry, and the trend is
still for that, save for some light chances again in our southeast.

A stronger trough looks to drop down Wednesday and this could bring
a more solid line of showers. GFS/Euro/GEM are in pretty good
agreement with this scenario, and again showed similar results
yesterday. The only limiting factor is available moisture, so will
keep lower-end chance pops for now. For Thursday, the Euro is
showing some upslope precip over eastern KY, so will carry slight
chance pops there.


.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 642 AM EDT Fri Apr 29 2016

VFR conditions are expected through most if not all of the TAF
period. For today clouds will be on the increase as a system
approaches from the southwest. Winds will be generally light and out
of the northwest. Winds will swing around to northeasterly and then
easterly tonight and increase. The latest model guidance has rain
moving in a bit later tonight, so have pushed back the timing until
after 06Z for rain mention. A thunderstorm will not be out of the
question tonight, but chances are low enough that TS will be kept
out of the forecast for now.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........RJS
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