Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 191911

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
311 PM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017

.Short Term...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Satellite images this afternoon shows the clouds that developed over
portions of southern IN and north central KY beginning to erode.
These clouds should mostly dissipate over the next few hours.
However, more clouds will move in from the west tonight as a system
approaches the region.

For tonight, showers and storms will develop across northern IL and
IN. A few showers may move into southern IN before daybreak, but
most of the precipitation looks to stay to the north of the forecast
area. Monday looks to be mainly dry, though a few showers or storms
could affect southern IN and north central KY.

The better chance for showers and a few storms in the short term
period will come Monday night as a cold front sinks south across the
lower Ohio Valley. This front looks to stall near the KY/TN border
early Tuesday. Rain chances will be diminishing towards daybreak

As for temperatures, the coldest temps tonight will be across east
central KY closer to the departing high pressure and where clouds
will move in the latest. Lows there will drop into the lower to
mid 30s. The rest of the region will see lows in the upper 30s to
lower 40s. With the return to southerly flow tomorrow, highs will
reach into the lower 60s in the Bluegrass to the upper 60s to lower
70s along and west of I-65. Tomorrow night will be much warmer in
the mid 40s to mid 50s.


.Long Term...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 308 PM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017

The stalled frontal boundary near the southern KY border will remain
mainly stationary through Tuesday. A shortwave will approach during
the afternoon and move through during the evening and overnight
hours. This wave will spark another round of showers and storms
Tuesday that will continue into Tuesday night. Rain chances for
Tuesday look to be higher across the board than for Monday.
Soundings do show some decent CAPE developing across south central
KY near the boundary. A few stronger storms with hail and gusty
winds will be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening in this area.

The boundary will finally push well south of the region by Wednesday
morning. High pressure building in from the north will bring
clearing skies. A warm front will push back to the north across the
region on Tuesday. The models have trended drier with this front as
we will be under the influence of ridging, so the forecast was
trended dry as well. Friday we should be solidly in the warm sector
ahead of the next system. The dry streak will continue with highs
topping out in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

For next weekend, the 12Z model runs have come into better
agreement. A deep closed upper low will develop across the Plains
Thursday/Friday and move into the Missouri Valley by Saturday
morning. The GFS has trended towards the deeper solution, closer to
the Canadian and ECMWF. Thus, precipitation will be slower to move
in and slower to move out. Scattered to numerous showers and storms
are looking more likely through much of the weekend.


.Aviation (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1250 PM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Stratus deck covering Ohio and eastern Kentucky appears to have
reached its maximum southward/westward extent. SDF and BWG now
scattered after brief ceilings, and should be just mixed enough to
stay VFR if it goes broken briefly before retreating. LEX continues
to flirt with fuel-alternate and will be an issuance time decision,
but either way will initialize MVFR.

As we lose the cold pool influence, expect the low clouds to scatter
out of LEX by mid/late afternoon. Light/variable winds and
unrestricted cig/vis expected through the night.

Return flow sets up by daybreak on Monday, with light SSE winds.
Stratus ceilings will return, this time from the west as the
moisture feed sets up. Will keep the ceilings just barely VFR
through midday. SDF planning period in the afternoon could see a
build-down, but at this time we`ll keep it above fuel-alternate and
limit precip mention to VCSH if anything at all.




Short Term...EER
Long Term...EER
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