Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 281539

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1139 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1135 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Issued a zone update to remove patchy fog wording from this morning,
but otherwise the forecast is on track. Reinforcing cool front still
will cross the region today, and looks to be dry. Have a few hi-res
models trying to spit out some moisture from thin clouds, and will
have to watch to see if any returns develop. For now will keep the
forecast dry.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Initial cold front has pushed the deep moisture south and east of
the area, but low-level moisture lingers ahead of the more
substantial cold advection surge. South of the Parkways in Kentucky,
the dewpoints remain in the 70s, and T/Td spreads were narrow to
begin with due to clouds. We`re already seeing dense fog in spots,
so with clearing ongoing and several hours of darkness still ahead,
will go with a Dense Fog Advisory for south-central Kentucky. Will
only run it through 12Z given early sunrise and the advection of
drier air setting up, and it could already be eroding quickly from
the northern edge.

Shortwave upper trof will swing through the Great Lakes today, and
drive a secondary cold front southward through the Ohio Valley.
Can`t completely rule out an isolated late-day pop-up, but moisture
supply is marginal and there is very little convergence on the
boundary, so will leave the forecast dry.

For tonight and Wednesday, a broad eastern CONUS upper trof and
1021mb high pressure building out of the Upper Midwest will bring
one of the Top 10 picture postcard days of the summer. Temps will
run several degrees below normal both day and night, and dewpoints
will be in the 50s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Modifying Canadian air mass will give us one more night and day of
pleasant temps and humidity levels. Wednesday night will be the
coolest night of this stretch as winds decouple under the surface
ridge. Daytime temps start to recover a bit on Thursday, but still a
category or so below normal.

By Friday another system swinging through the Great Lakes will push
a cold front into the Ohio Valley, so POPs will increase starting
from the NW. Precip chances expand area-wide Friday night as the
front hangs up somewhere over the Ohio or Tennessee Valley, and then
lingers there for much of the weekend. Expect an unsettled weather
pattern through the holiday weekend, perhaps with multiple rounds of
showers and storms as disturbances ride eastward along the front and
tap into Gulf moisture. Temps will run near climo, perhaps a bit
below by day and above by night with clouds and precip limiting the
diurnal ranges.


.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 620 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Patchy but dense fog continues across south central Kentucky this
morning with a wide variety of visibilities reported at BWG and
nearby sites. Some slightly drier air is working into the area so
expecting by 12z mainly VFR conditions to start the TAF period at

For the remainder of the TAF period, look for light/variable winds
this morning to become northerly this afternoon which will become
gusty near 20 kts. A scattered cu deck is expected to develop with
bases 3-5 kft but then dissipate this evening as high pressure
settles over the region. Plenty of dry air should preclude fog
formation at the terminals tonight.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......RAS
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