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000 FXUS63 KLMK 201954 AFDLMK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 254 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)... MAIN QUESTION FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY REVOLVES AROUND PATCHY FOG POSSIBILITIES LATE TONIGHT. UPPER AIR PATTERN IS IN SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. A BROAD ZONAL SOUTHERN JET CONTINUES JUST SOUTH OF OUR BORDER AND ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS SOUTHERN JET IS A DISTURBANCE NOW ACROSS TEXAS THAT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF STATES TOMORROW. THE MORE ACTIVE NORTHERN JET WILL FEATURE A VIGOROUS 500MB TROUGH APPROACHING THE GREAT BASIN THIS EVENING AND ANOTHER TROUGH SCOOTING EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL REMAIN WITHIN A DRY AND TRANQUIL PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE WILL CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH AND MOVE INTO OHIO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...TRENDING TOWARDS LIGHT EASTERLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS AREA OF FOG THEN MOVED SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND BASICALLY TOOK ALL MORNING TO BURN OFF. FOG ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS SOME RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. FEEL THAT PATCHY FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS RIVER VALLEYS AND OPEN FIELDS. HOWEVER DO FEEL THAT IT WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY DUE TO A SLIGHTLY BETTER MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND AN EXPECTED LIGHT EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WIND TOWARDS EARLY MORNING. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH MANY AREAS WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUN SATURDAY...INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON SCATTERED CU DEVELOPMENT WILL TIP THE FORECAST TOWARDS PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON`S. .LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY)... NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED BACK TO DRIER OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS REGARDING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES ON SUNDAY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE LAKE CUMBERLAND AND POSSIBLY BLUEGRASS REGIONS. WILL LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS ANY DEVIATION IN THE PATH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAINS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN WILL BEGIN EARLY SUNDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MONDAY WILL BE DRY IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SOUTHERN SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST. A COLD RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. WE MAY SEE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM DIVING DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CLIP MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MONDAY LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. HIGHS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY COULD TOP OUT AROUND 60 ON MONDAY. WITH COOL NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL BE AROUND NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WHILE HIGHS AT THE END OF THE REACH COULD STRUGGLE TO GET TO 50. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 30S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)... MVFR FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MID MORNING. IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE BRIEFLY AT KBWG. SOME THICKER FOG IS APPROACHING SOUTHERN INDIANA AT THIS TIME...BUT IT SHOULD ERODE AWAY WITH DAYBREAK BEFORE IT GETS TO KSDF. AFTER THIS MORNING`S FOG...SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS AS ONLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL CROSS THE REGION. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM........JSD LONG TERM.........EES AVIATION..........JSD
