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000
FXUS63 KLMK 100438
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1138 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2010

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...

THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND RAIN HAS COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE AREA THOUGH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

THERE ARE SEVERAL CONCERNS FOR THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. FIRST...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY
THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY AND UP THROUGH EVANSVILLE INDIANA AT THIS
TIME. AS THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DROP
INTO THE LOWER 20S TO UPPER TEENS. THIS MAY CAUSE FREEZING OF ANY
SLUSHY OR WET SURFACES. THIS FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT THROUGH MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 03Z TONIGHT. LOWS LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER TEENS EARLY THIS MORNING AND RISE BACK INTO THE LOWER 20S
BY SUNRISE TOMORROW.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE MO/IL WILL CROSS OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING WITH IT SOME SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THESE REGIONS COULD SEE UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH
OF SNOW THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. ELSEWHERE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO
HALF AN INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EASTWARD THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION WILL TIGHTEN. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
TOWARDS THE MORNING HOURS. SUSTAINED WILL BE FROM 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH POSSIBLE FOR A TIME TOMORROW MORNING. THIS
MAY CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY AS IT IS FALLING
TONIGHT AN TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN WIND CHILLS IN
THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT.

LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING IN THE UPPER 20S UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY)...

FOR THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES REMAIN SOME 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE REASON FOR THIS WILL BE A BLOCKING
RIDGE SOUTH OF GREENLAND THAT WILL KEEP A DEEP UPPER LOW SPINNING
NORTH OF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES.

A STRONG SOUTH STREAM JET WILL ALSO HELP KEEP GULF MOISTER SOUTH OF
THE REGION SO IN ADDITION TO THE COLDER TEMPERATURES WE WILL SEE A
FAIRLY DRY PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRING SOME REINFORCING COLD AIR OVER THE WEEKEND AND A CHANCE FOR
SNOW.

SO AT THIS TIME WE WILL ONLY MENTION SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITH SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE DRY.

AS MENTIONED TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S AND LOWS FROM THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THESE
READINGS MAY BE SEVERAL DEGREES TOO WARM WITH SNOW CURRENTLY ON THE
GROUND.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR AVIATION DURING THIS VERY CHILLY
TAF PERIOD. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WINDS WILL COME FROM THE WEST
AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 23 KNOTS. ON WEDNESDAY THE
DIRECTION WILL SHIFT JUST SLIGHTLY TO A MORE WNW DIRECTION AND MAY
ACTUALLY INCREASE A COUPLE OF KNOTS. WINDS WILL FINALLY SETTLE DOWN
TO AROUND 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STILL OUT OF THE WNW.

SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY AT LEX. BWG SHOULD BE
ABLE TO AVOID MOST OF THE SNOW BUT WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH LOW
CEILINGS AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPIN AROUND A POWERFUL UPPER LOW.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ029>043-
     045>049-055>057-067.

IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR INZ076>079-
     084-090>092.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM........EES
LONG TERM.........JA
AVIATION..........13