Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 182318

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
718 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 215 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Clear skies and seasonable temperatures prevailed across southern
Indiana and central Kentucky as of early afternoon. A surface high
centered over West Virginia continued to bring very pleasant autumn
conditions to the lower Ohio Valley.

In the short term, not much in the way of weather concerns as the
surface high will continue to remain over the mid-Atlantic while an
upper ridge builds over the southeast US. This will bring moderating
temperatures each day through the remainder of the work week. Plan
on high in the 70s and morning lows in the 40s to 50s. Mostly clear
to clear skies should prevail each day along with light breezes out
of the southeast to south.

Expect another round of river valley fog tonight, though the winds
just off the surface will be noticeably higher, so this may preclude
dense and/or prolonged river fog from forming. Went ahead and
included patchy fog in the main river channels.

.Long Term...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Saturday will continue to feature dry weather as the surface high
pressure begins to move off the east coast. A shortwave trough and
surface front will push into the central Plains. Expect breezier
conditions Saturday ahead of that feature along with slightly warmer
temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.

On Sunday, the shortwave trough and front will begin to push into
the lower Ohio Valley, especially late in the day toward the
overnight hours. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will spread
west to east as the day progresses. There continues to be some
uncertainty with the overall evolution in the synoptic features
between each model cycle, but 50 to 60 percent chances look
reasonable at this point.

Shower chances continue Monday depending on how progressive the
trough becomes, or if cuts off somewhere over the southeast US. The
18.12z guidance was in better agreement showing a very strong
longwave trough developing across the Great Lakes and east coast
which would send much cooler air into the region along with chances
for showers. Leaned on a model consensus which trends highs down
into the low 60s to even 50s with lows well into the 30s for most of
the area.


.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 716 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

High pressure will remain centered over the mid-Atlantic states
through this TAF period. Winds will become light tonight out of the
south, then increase tomorrow afternoon to 6-8 knots out of the
south to south-southwest. Skies are expected to be mostly clear.
Some light fog will be possible at BWG again in the morning, but it
is not expected to be as dense as the last couple of mornings.




Short Term...ZT
Long Term...ZT
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