Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
FXUS63 KLMK 290236
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1036 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016
Issued at 1035 PM EDT Thu Apr 28 2016
Skies were mostly clear across the region this evening. We do have
a little bit of cloud cover over the SW that is quickly moving
through. So mostly clear skies should suffice for the overnight
period. Surface winds look to stay up a little bit overnight which
should keep the atmosphere mixed and preclude widespread fog
development. However, can`t rule out that some valley and river fog
that may develop. Overnight lows int he lower to mid 50s look
likely though a few of our cool spots that fully decouple could see
some upper 40s. Overall, the forecast is good shape and only minor
adjustments were made to the grids.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 158 PM EDT Thu Apr 28 2016
This afternoon`s showers/tstms will quickly move east early this
evening, with weak high pressure bringing us dry weather tonight
through Friday evening. We`ll have a great night for sleeping
tonight with lows in the 50s and dew points dipping into the upper
40s by morning. Highs tomorrow will mostly be in the 70s with
sunshine in the morning but increasing clouds in the afternoon.
Friday night low pressure entering the Ozarks will set up a warm
front reaching east into Kentucky while a low level jet revs up over
the lower Mississippi Valley. Showers and thunderstorms will break
out to our west and will spread eastward into the LMK CWA overnight.
Instability will be weak and elevated here with just a few rumbles
of thunder expected.
.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Thu Apr 28 2016
Low pressure approaching from the west will bring increasing chances
of showers over the weekend, with an inch or two of rainfall within
reach over the course of the two days.
On Sunday that low will amble through or near Kentucky. A 5H vort
and speed max will approach from the northwest by evening to help
spark more vigorous convection. The degree of instability will be in
question given clouds and possible morning showers, and it`s too
early to nail down the exact placement of the various synoptic
features, but it`s a system that will need to be watched.
Showers and thunderstorms will gradually pull off to the east Sunday
night, possibly lingering into Monday in the Blue Grass.
After a respite for the first part of the new work week, a cold
front will approach the area from the north Wednesday/Thursday. How
far south this front gets and how much moisture it will have to work
with are in question. However, given deep upper troffing to be in
place over the eastern United States will forecast the front
advancing southward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys with a
chance of showers.
Generally cool temperatures can be expected as that upper trof
develops next week. Lows in the middle and upper 40s are forecast
each morning Tuesday through Thursday.
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 700 PM EDT Thu Apr 28 2016
Only TAF concern this evening will be the gusty winds. Sustained
winds of 13-17kts with gusts at or just above 20kts can be expected
through sunset. However, we expect wind gusts to diminish rapidly
in the 29/01-03Z time frame. A light west to west-southwest breeze
is expected overnight. Overall atmosphere should remain rather
mixed overnight so concern for fog is relatively low at KSDF and
KLEX. Will continue to watch conditions overnight at KBWG as some
patchy fog could develop around sunrise down there.