Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 151702
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1202 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1126 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

Back edge of cloud shield continues to press south and east of the
Ohio River this morning.  The back edge of the clouds will continue
to move eastward this afternoon allowing a good bit of central
Kentucky seeing some sun.  Another batch of mid-level cloudiness to
the northwest will swing through the region this afternoon and
evening.  So while southern IN has mostly sunny skies now, a build
up of clouds is expected once again this afternoon.

Have trended temps slightly based on Obs and the latest consensus
blend data. That would support highs in the mid-upper 30s in many
areas, though a 40 or low 40s reading can`t be ruled out near the
KY/TN border area.

&&

.Short Term...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

An upper level shortwave trough will push through the region today
keeping low level clouds in place for much of the day.  This will
also help limit temperatures to the mid 30s to low 40s for highs
this afternoon.  While a stray flurry or sprinkle can`t be ruled
out, most locations should stay dry today.

Tonight skies will become mostly clear as sfc high pressure moves
into the region.  Temperature should bottom out in the mid 20s to
low 30s.

For Saturday, expect increasing southerly return flow.  Winds will
be breezy with gusts in the 20-25 mph range.  The southerly flow and
mostly sunny skies will allow temps to warm into the lower 50s for
highs!

.Long Term...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 315 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

Saturday Night - Monday...

A weakening southern stream upper level shortwave will push into the
Ohio Valley Sunday from the southwest.  The 0Z model guidance
indicated a slightly slower arrival, with precipitation entering
south central KY around or just beyond 12Z and spreading northeast
through the day on Sunday.  According to model soundings, this light
precipitation should be all in the form of a cold rain. Temperatures
will be in the 30s above freezing at onset and rise into the low to
mid 40s for highs on Sun so no travel impacts are expected.

Light rain showers or a light drizzle will continue Sun night into
Mon morning.  Sun night lows will range from the upper 30s to lower
40s.  With southerly flow and a warm airmass in place for Monday,
expect high temps to reach the lower 50s.

Tuesday - Thursday...

Tuesday another upper level trough will swing through making for
very light rain chances.  With a warm airmass in places, high temps
should reach the 50s.  Wed/Thu look to be rather benign with sfc
high pressure moving through Wed.  A strong cold front will organize
to our west on Thu causing strong southerly flow over our region and
warmer than normal temps (50s to around 60 for highs).

Friday into the Week of Christmas...

A strong cold front will pass through the region some time on Fri
bringing showers and perhaps some t-storms as well.  The airmass
behind this front will cool temps off into the 30s/lower 40s for
highs.

0Z model guidance has trended drier the week of Christmas indicating
the cold front/airmass will sink further south than previous runs.
If this solution plays out with the cold airmass push as far south
as the Gulf states, any mixed wintry precip would likely stay to our
south.  The Ohio Valley would be colder than normal and relatively
dry assuming no major clipper systems move through.

However, this is only one model run suite amongst many that will
continue to offer a wide range of solutions for Christmas week
weather.  Stay tuned for the latest Christmas week forecasts!

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1202 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

Plan on breezy westerly winds this afternoon with gusts to around 20-
22 kts. Skies will vary from partly to mostly cloudy but ceilings
will remain VFR. More mid-level clouds are possible tonight,
especially at SDF, LEX, and HNB. For tomorrow, expect southwesterly
winds to increase ahead of an approaching cold front. Sustained 10
to 15 kts with gusts 20-22 kts are likely. Skies should remain
mostly clear outside of high cirrus.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Update...MJ
Short Term...AMS
Long Term....AMS
Aviation...ZT



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