Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 100135

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
935 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 932 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2015

Rain has moved out of southern Indiana and north central Kentucky
this evening. Light to moderate rain will continue across south
central Kentucky for the next few hours but should move out well
before daybreak. Did another forecast update to remove the pops
completely from the north. Also tapered them off earlier in the
south. The forecast update is already out.

Issued at 620 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2015

With drier air filtering into the northern portion of the forecast
area, rain has begun to dry up. Did a quick update to the pops over
the next few hours to lower them and dry things out more quickly
across southern IN and north central KY. Also tweaked the hourly
temp grids to bring them in line with current observations and
expected trends.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2015

A cold front was located over south central KY as of 300pm and will
continue to move SE into TN this evening.  A cluster of strong
storms will continue over the next hour in the Cumberland Lake
region just ahead of this front.  These strong storms may contain
strong winds and pea size hail.  They should clear the area within
the next few hours leaving showers and maybe an isld embedded t-
storm in their wake.

Showers and low clouds will linger over the area for much of the
evening hours.  Some of the latest models do indicate the upper
trough associated with this system will sharpen causing showery
activity to linger over south central KY through the early morning
hours Sat.  Low clouds will start to clear over southern Indiana
near sunrise Sat morning.  Low temps will hold in the upper 40s to
lower 50s overnight due to the clouds and lingering showers.

For Saturday, thick cloud cover will gradually clear from N to S
over the region during the morning hours with most places only
partly cloudy by Sat afternoon.  The post-frontal airmass will
result in high temps ranging through the 60s to around 70.

For Saturday night, skies will become clear with sfc high pressure
and upper level ridging aloft.  This will allow for optimal cooling
conditions dropping lows into the 40s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2015

The long term will begin with the region under the influence of a
ridge aloft and high pressure at the surface. Highs Sunday will top
out in the lower to mid 70s. Lows Monday morning will be quite a bit
warmer than Sunday morning thanks to continued southerly winds. They
will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

For Monday a shortwave trough and cold front will swing through the
lower Ohio Valley. The front should begin to move into southern IN
during the afternoon and push through the rest of the region through
the evening. Scattered showers will accompany this frontal passage
Monday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will rise into the mid to
upper 70s ahead of the front. Behind it cooler air will filter in
with highs topping out in the 60s Tuesday.

Northwesterly flow aloft will set up and remain in place through the
remainder of the forecast period. A couple of weak waves will move
through this flow, but for now they look to mostly stay to the north
of the forecast area. Thus will go with a dry forecast for Tuesday
through Friday. Temperatures will warm back into the 70s Wednesday
and Thursday with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. A dry front
then moves through on Thursday night with highs in the 60s once
again Friday.


.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 646 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2015

Rain has shifted to the south and the east early this evening as the
front has pushed through. SDF and LEX should be dry through the TAF
period. BWG will see light rain and then off an on showers through
the evening and into the overnight hours.

Ceilings and visibilities will be tricky overnight with the
continued showers and low level moisture. Expect that ceilings will
lower to MVFR at BWG where rain will hold on the longest. They may
drop to IFR from time to time in the rain as well. LEX will have
some dry air moving in, but guidance hints there could be a period
of stratus and/or light fog developing towards sunrise. SDF should
remain mainly VFR as dry air will filter in there first.
Conditions should improve to VFR tomorrow morning at all sites.

Winds will be out of the NNW to north tonight and shift to the NNE
to NE by tomorrow morning. Speeds will be generally in the 6-8 knot


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......EER
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