Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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824 FXUS63 KLMK 031858 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 258 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * Warm and muggy weather through midweek. * Scattered to numerous storms will be possible Tuesday and Wednesday. A few strong to severe storms Wednesday could produce heavy downpours and gusty winds. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 257 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Quasi-zonal pattern aloft upstream with a few weak disturbances making their way into the Plains, while a weak ridge builds over the eastern CONUS. The resulting deep but weak S-SW flow will enhance a juicy air mass, with PWATs ramping up to more than 1.5 inches on Tuesday. This afternoon`s cirrus should clear out this evening, making for a mostly clear night. Not as concerned about fog tonight as we hold onto a light SE breeze to keep a little mixing, and lower dewpoints have mixed down over most of the area today. Will start the day Tuesday with scattered showers and perhaps a T- storm working their way into south central Kentucky. Precip chances will increase and expand across Kentucky and southern Indiana through the day, with 50-60% coverage in play. QPF will be fairly spotty, but a in this air mass any storm could produce a brief downpour. Decent CAPE exists per the forecast soundings, but mid- level lapse rates will be weak, limiting our SVR potential. Still could have a few gusty pulse storms with near-severe wind gusts, but organized severe weather is not expected. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 257 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Tuesday Night through Friday Night... Scattered showers thunderstorms will likely be in progress at the beginning of the period (Tuesday Night) as a mid-level shortwave trough axis will be pulling through the region. NBM PoPs look too high for the overnight hours, so will likely pull back on PoPs by mid-late evening and then dry things out overnight. Lows look to dip into the 65-70 degree range. By Wednesday, another mid-level shortwave trough axis will push toward the region along with an associated surface cold front passing in the afternoon and evening. Model soundings across the region show about 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE with about 30-35 kts of shear, though somewhat higher shear lags behind the front and just to our north. Nonetheless, we should have a decent amount of convective coverage across the region, probably more north of the Parkways with lesser amounts across southern KY. Some storms could be strong, with some isolated severe storms possible. Damaging winds would be the main weather hazard along with heavy rainfall and cloud to ground lightning. Showers/storms should linger into Wednesday night before the cold front pushes through overnight. Highs on the day will be in the upper 70s to the lower 80s with overnight lows in the low-mid 60s. Surface cold front should be east of our region by sunrise Thursday leaving us with a dryer and much cooler pattern for Friday and into the weekend. Highs Thursday will be in the lower 80s with overnight lows in dipping into the low-mid 50s. Highs on Friday will be in the mid-upper 70s with overnight lows in the low-mid 50s. Saturday and Sunday... Anomalous, closed upper low will spin across the northeastern US this weekend resulting in a northwest flow regime across the Ohio Valley. Not seeing much of a signal in terms of rainfall for Saturday, but we`ll have to be on guard for some weak perturbations to come through late Sat/Sun within the northwest flow. Highs Saturday should warm into the 75-80 degree range with highs on Sunday warming into the 78-82 degree range. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 115 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Early morning fog has dissipated and given way to a few-sct diurnal Cu under a cirrus ceiling. Expect status quo for cloud cover this afternoon, if not a bit less Cu as we are starting to see slightly lower dewpoints mix down. Light SE winds overnight and continued VFR conditions. After daybreak Tuesday we`ll see winds out of the south again, but speeds less than 10 kt. Rain chances start to ramp up later in the morning, so will include VCSH for BWG as a 5-6k ft ceiling comes in after 14-15Z. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RAS LONG TERM...MJ AVIATION...RAS