169
FXUS64 KLUB 240848
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
348 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

An upper level trough to our north will provide some slight relief
from the above normal temperatures as it swings a cold front through
the region early this morning. As of 2 AM CDT latest surface
observations and West Texas Mesonet data shows the cold front
entering the northern Texas Panhandle. This front is expected to
track southward into the far southern Texas Panhandle just before
day-break, making its way completely through the FA by the late
morning hours. Post frontal winds will shift out of the north,
becoming briefly breezy through the morning hours. Temperatures will
be slightly cooler, and let me emphasize the slightly part once
more, with temperatures in the mid 80s to near 90 across our
southern most row of counties. Winds will then begin to shift out
of the east this evening before veering out of the southeast
tonight as a surface high establishes to our east and a surface
low develops over eastern New Mexico. Overnight lows will be
similar to previous nights in the 50s to low 60s under mostly
clear skies.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

The long term forecast is split into two regimes, the first being
this weekend into early next week with hot and dry conditions
leading to fire weather concerns and the second being towards the
middle of next week as the dryline returns west bringing chances for
strong to severe thunderstorms back to the forecast area. Saturday
morning will start off with a shortwave moving east over the western
U.S. with nearly zonal flow over the forecast area. This will lead
to lee cyclogenesis in southeastern Colorado through the day which
will boost southwest surface winds across the forecast area. The
dryline will quickly sharpen across the eastern third of the
forecast area in the morning but should move east of our forecast
area by the afternoon. This will set the stage for critical fire
weather concerns for most locations on the Caprock and additional
details can be found in the fire weather discussion below. The
downsloping winds will allow temperatures to climb back above normal
with high temperatures in the mid 90s to near the century mark.
Surface low will slide into Kansas on Sunday which will shift winds
around to the west and northwest and not be quite as strong as
Saturday. This will keep high temperatures a few degrees cooler on
Sunday with most locations topping out in the 90s. The dry airmass
will remain in place though so another day of critical fire weather
conditions is expected.

Upper-level heights will begin to increase on Monday as a ridge
begins to move into the central CONUS. Fortunately these height
rises won`t lead to a bump up in high temperatures as it will be
offset by a surface cold front that will swing through the region
Monday morning. Hence high temperatures Monday will be slightly
cooler once again in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Behind the front
winds will become easterly which will begin the process of moisture
return to the forecast area. Despite a ridge remaining overhead
through the end of next week, it is the end of May and with a
dryline in place somewhere in our forecast area and a few embedded
shortwaves several days of strong to severe thunderstorms may be
possible Tuesday through the end of next week. Obviously it is a bit
too early to get into specifics but definitely appears to be a more
active pattern that bears watching. /WI

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all terminals through
the period, with the exception of KCDS were unexpected MVFR CIGS
have developed off of an outflow boundary. Uncertainty remains on
the duration of low cloud cover, especially with the passing
FROPA. Regardless, low-clouds are expected to clear out of the
terminal just before day-break. Winds will then shift out of the
north Friday morning as a cold front tracks through with winds
becoming breezy out of the north around 20 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

On Saturday, a dryline will surge eastward and stall in the eastern
Rolling Plains. Behind this dryline, downsloping southwesterly winds
will boost temperatures into the mid to upper 90s and bring a much
drier airmass into the South Plains and portions of the far southern
Texas Panhandle. This drier air combined with the hot temperatures
will drop afternoon relative humidity values into the middle single
digits across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and South Plains.
Southwest winds will also become breezy to low end windy, with
sustained winds of 20-30 mph and gusts to 40 mph. The combination of
breezy and dry conditions will lead to RFTI values of 5-8 across the
Caprock. Therefore, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued from noon
Saturday until midnight Sunday for the far southwestern and south
central Texas Panhandle and the South Plains. Humidity recoveries
overnight will be poor only rebounding into the 20-30 percent range
by Sunday morning. This will help set the stage for another day of
critical fire weather conditions on Sunday as the dry airmass
remains in place. Fortunately, wind speeds will be weaker on Sunday
with sustained winds of 15-20 mph but when combined with afternoon
relative humidity values in the upper single digits RFTIs of 3-5 can
be expected on the Caprock.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....58
AVIATION...12