Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48

000
FXUS64 KLUB 212016
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
316 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Cold front was entering the southern TX Panhandle shortly after
2 PM and remains on track to clear much of the South Plains by
sunset. Thermal ridging ahead of this boundary is host to a
corridor of steep low level lapse rates, which despite meager
boundary layer moisture, is already garnering stable cumulus.
However, colder mid level temps are inferred exiting eastern New
Mexico within the base of an upper trough. As this trough axis and
increasing ascent continue eastward, some high based showers,
storms and virga are likely to evolve on the Caprock with a window
for organized and deeper convection near Highway 83 coincident
with deeper moisture and SBCAPEs of 2000 J/kg. Microbursts remain
the primary concern in this setup with any severe hail favoring
the Rolling Plains.

Following modest pressure rises immediately behind the front with
a few hours of 20 mph northerly winds, speeds will scale back
around midnight as the pressure ridge envelops the region. Chose
to undercut models for low temps overnight, especially in our NW
zones where the lowest dewpoints around 30 degrees should linger
the longest. A light freeze is possible, but is not as definitive
as locations farther north in the western Panhandle. Else, this
cool ridging will linger on Sunday and make for a perfect day to
be outdoors enjoying some hot apple cider under full sun with
light winds. Quick exodus of this surface ridge by Sunday night
will precede deeper and drier NW flow complete with a backdoor
cold front by Monday afternoon. Challenge in the extended realm
remains the arrival of a strong cold front sometime Thursday or
early Friday pending the evolution of a sharp trough. At present,
models and ensembles are in fair agreement with this trough,
although the ECMWF has shown the most run-to-run variability
despite preferring a more westerly longitude than the GFS. Pattern
recognition supports a sharp cooldown by late week with perhaps a
widespread freeze as the coldest dome of cP air arrives Friday
into Saturday.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

93



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.