Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
484 FXUS62 KMLB 090203 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1003 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 946 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Current-Tonight... Similar to yesterday, with hot and humid conditions prevailing and a slight downward trend in convection. High temperatures reached in the mid to upper 90s today, with record high temperatures reached at Ft. Pierce, Sanford, and Leesburg. The east coast sea breeze formed this afternoon and pushed inland, with isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms forming along the sea breeze, outflow boundaries, and collisions late this afternoon and into the evening. The majority of convection occurred across the southern portion of the CWA, with activity moving up from south Florida into the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee counties. These storms produced gusty winds, frequent lightning and moderate rainfall. Activity has diminished this evening, with any lingering activity expected to dissipate or push offshore over the next hour or two. Overnight, expect mostly dry conditions, with rain chances 10 percent or less. Southeast winds around 10 mph this evening will become light and from the southwest overnight with mostly clear skies after midnight. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s. Due to the light winds and high humidity, patchy fog will be possible across portions of east central Florida late tonight and into early Sunday morning. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 740 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period. VCTS through 01/02Z tonight. Some guidance is indicating patchy fog will be possible late tonight and into Sunday morning, but confidence is not high. Thus, have no mention in the TAF. Light southwest winds tonight will increase to around 10 KT by mid morning. The east coast sea breeze is expected to form and push inland Sunday afternoon, backing the winds SE. Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms once again Sunday afternoon. Included VCTS from MCO-TIX southward starting 18-20Z, with southerns sites starting at the earlier end of the range. VCSH for SFB starting at 20Z. Have not included any TEMPOs at this time for Sunday convection. && .MARINE... Issued at 331 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Tonight-Sunday...Favorable boating conditions persist outside of convection with light offshore winds becoming southeast 10-15 knots in the afternoon with seas 2 ft. Most likely area for lightning storms will be south of Sebastian Inlet today and tomorrow. Monday-Wednesday...WSW surface flow continues thru midweek with winds backing SE and increasing to 15-17 kt each afternoon/evening behind the sea breeze. Generally favorable boating conditions are expected, though the chance for locally heavy rain and lightning storms increases each day through the period. Seas 2-3 ft, except where locally higher in the vicinity of lightning storms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 331 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Today-Monday...Fire sensitive conditions will continue over the next couple of days as abnormally hot temperatures combine with lower dewpoints as well antecedent dry soil. Sensitivity will be enhanced by the daily threat for lightning storms, driven by the sea and lake breeze interactions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 74 97 74 97 / 20 20 0 40 MCO 76 97 76 96 / 20 30 10 50 MLB 75 93 76 94 / 20 40 20 60 VRB 74 93 75 95 / 10 50 30 70 LEE 76 97 76 96 / 10 10 0 40 SFB 75 98 75 98 / 20 20 0 50 ORL 77 97 76 97 / 20 30 10 50 FPR 73 93 74 94 / 10 50 30 70 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Watson AVIATION...Watson RADAR...Sedlock/Heil