462
FXUS62 KMLB 070053
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
853 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 852 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Current-Overnight...Active late afternoon/evening across ECFL with
numerous showers and lightning storms (strong/svr) due to intense
surface heating, moisture, disturbance aloft, and many boundary
collisions. There were numerous reports of hail, strong wind gusts,
and locally heavy rainfall, especially from Osceola through Orange
and Seminole counties. Some of this activity has made its way back
eastward toward the Volusia/Brevard coasts. While still some strong
storms around, activity will wind down through mid to late evening
pushing out across the local coastal waters. The overnight period
will remain dry over land. Mild and humid conditions continue
with lows overnight in the L-M70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 738 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Well-defined ECSB this afternoon-evening pushing inland
across ECFL. SCT-NMRS shower/storm coverage across the interior.
Slow westward movement, with some activity pushing back toward the
coast (esp Volusia/Brevard). MVFR CIGs/VSBYs (ISOLD IFR) invof
convection. Heavy downpours, occasional to frequent cloud-to-
ground lightning strikes, gusty winds, and coin-size hail the
primary concerns. Activity will wind down mid-late evening. Winds
diminish to L/V this evening and overnight. WRLY light winds on
Fri, with the sea breeze developing in the afternoon along the
coast - pushing slowly inland - backing winds to ESE. Another
round of SCT storms expected Friday beyond 07/20Z. VFR continues
thru the period outside of convection.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Friday-Monday...Boating conditions remain generally favorable into
late week and through the weekend. Weak front will approach north
Florida late Friday and settle near to just north of the waters into
the weekend before it gradually fades. This will shift the ridge
axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic southward through the
period, with winds generally out of the W/SW each day backing to the
S/SE each afternoon with the developing east coast sea breeze. Wind
speeds 5-10 knots in the morning, increase up to 10-15 knots in the
afternoon and evening, with seas 1-3 feet.

Scattered offshore moving showers and storms will continue to be
possible into Friday afternoon and early evening, but shower and
storm chances begin to decrease north of the Cape into the
weekend before rising once again into early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Thursday-Monday...Sensitive fire weather conditions will exist
across the area Fri-Mon, with sensitive to near critical fire
weather conditions into the weekend, as hot conditions prevail and
ongoing drought conditions persist. Minimum RH values fall to near
40 percent Friday afternoon. Additional scattered showers and
storms are possible Friday afternoon. An increase in lightning
strikes with this activity, may lead to additional brush fires.

Conditions then trend a little drier into the weekend, with Min RH
values falling to the mid 30s to low 40s across the interior on
Saturday and into the mid to upper 30s across the interior on
Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will again be
possible each afternoon, but overall coverage is forecast to be
lower.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Forecast high temperatures are expected to remain below record
values today, but there will be a better chance of tying or
breaking some record highs Friday and into the weekend.

Record high temperatures for today, June 6th:

DAB 6-Jun  100 1998
LEE 6-Jun  98 1998
SFB 6-Jun  101 1998
MCO 6-Jun  101 1927
MLB 6-Jun  101 1998
VRB 6-Jun  97 1998
FPR 6-Jun  100 1998

Record high temperatures for June 7th through the 9th:

DAB 7-Jun 97 1985     8-Jun  99 1985     9-Jun 98 1981
LEE 7-Jun 96 2008     8-Jun  96 1985     9-Jun 98 1985
SFB 7-Jun 100 1998    8-Jun  97 1985     9-Jun 99 2006
MCO 7-Jun 98 1927     8-Jun  99 1985     9-Jun 100 1907
MLB 7-Jun 95 2014     8-Jun  97 1980     9-Jun 97 1941
VRB 7-Jun 98 1986     8-Jun  95 1995     9-Jun 94 1994
FPR 7-Jun 95 1998     8-Jun  95 1949     9-Jun 96 1980

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  72  94  74  94 /  20  50  20  20
MCO  73  96  76  97 /  30  50  20  20
MLB  72  93  74  93 /  30  60  40  20
VRB  72  94  73  94 /  50  60  40  30
LEE  74  96  76  97 /  20  50  10  20
SFB  73  97  75  97 /  20  50  20  20
ORL  74  96  76  97 /  30  50  20  20
FPR  71  94  72  93 /  50  60  40  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Sedlock
AVIATION...Sedlock
RADAR...Watson/Heil