436
FXUS62 KMLB 061855
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
255 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

-Slight risk for severe storms through early evening.

-Hot conditions forecast through the weekend, with near record
 highs and heat index values in the 102 to 107 range.

-Sensitive fire weather conditions continue through this weekend.

Current...The heat is on this afternoon with temps reaching 97
degrees at 2pm at Orlando Intl Airport and Orlando Exec. SPC has
also upgraded the severe weather risk during the late afternoon
and early evening with isolated to scattered strong to severe
storms with the potential for hail and downburst winds. The
concern window for severe storms will be from 4pm to 7pm mainly
inland across the interior and well inland portions of the coastal
counties.

Tonight...Scattered ongoing strong to severe storms will be across
the interior with activity propogating south across the interior
along bounbdaries and also advecting back toward the east coast
this evening. Should see much of the convection decrease in
coverage across southern portions of the forecast area into late
evening and/or push eastward across the Atlantic waters. Lows
tonight in the lower to mid 70s.

Friday...Another approaching mid level shortwave trough will
enhance afternoon convection during the mid to late afternoon. The
GFS indicate some drying across the north in the H9-H8 layer but
substantial CAPE and afternoon heating should allow for scattered
storms north and numerous showers and storms across the south half
of the forecast area. High temps will continue above normal from
95 to 97 across the interior and 92-94 closer to the east coast.
Heat indices look to top out just below advisory thresholds from
103-107 in afternoon hours.

Saturday-Sunday...Low level WSW flow and some drying in the low
levels will make for a hot weekend. Highs will reach the mid 90s
near the coast and upper 90s across the interior. Area heat
indices area forecast to reach up to 106-109 in a few spots which
may require heat headlines this weekend. Have trimmed the NBM rain
chances based on mid range model guidance and MOS values. It
appears northern areas may only see isolated storms with scattered
coverage across the central and south each afternoon.

Monday...Another hot day is forecast with highs in the mid to
upper 90s, an increase in moisture should allow for an uptick in
afternoon showers and storms along the east coast sea breeze as it
moves into the southern interior with slower progression inland
north of the Cape expected.

Tue-Thu...Deeper moisture will move northward from south Florida
into mid to latter part of next week as mid level trough
progresses through the Southeast. Tempered daily shower and storm
chances slightly but still rising to 70 percent by mid week.
Higher coverage of showers and storms by Wed-Thu, should reduce
high temps to around 90 with heat index values from 100 to 105
degrees.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Friday-Monday...Boating conditions remain generally favorable into
late week and through the weekend. Weak front will approach north
Florida late Friday and settle near to just north of the waters into
the weekend before it gradually fades. This will shift the ridge
axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic southward through the
period, with winds generally out of the W/SW each day backing to the
S/SE each afternoon with the developing east coast sea breeze. Wind
speeds 5-10 knots in the morning, increase up to 10-15 knots in the
afternoon and evening, with seas 1-3 feet.

Scattered offshore moving showers and storms will continue to be
possible into Friday afternoon and early evening, but shower and
storm chances begin to decrease north of the Cape into the
weekend before rising once again into early next week.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Thursday-Monday...Sensitive fire weather conditions will exist
across the area Fri-Mon, with sensitive to near critical fire
weather conditions into the weekend, as hot conditions prevail and
ongoing drought conditions persist. Minimum RH values fall to near
40 percent Friday afternoon. Additional scattered showers and
storms are possible Friday afternoon. An increase in lightning
strikes with this activity, may lead to additional brush fires.

Conditions then trend a little drier into the weekend, with Min RH
values falling to the mid 30s to low 40s across the interior on
Saturday and into the mid to upper 30s across the interior on
Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will again be
possible each afternoon, but overall coverage is forecast to be
lower.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Forecast high temperatures are expected to remain below record
values today, but there will be a better chance of tying or
breaking some record highs Friday and into the weekend.

Record high temperatures for today, June 6th:

DAB 6-Jun  100 1998
LEE 6-Jun  98 1998
SFB 6-Jun  101 1998
MCO 6-Jun  101 1927
MLB 6-Jun  101 1998
VRB 6-Jun  97 1998
FPR 6-Jun  100 1998

Record high temperatures for June 7th through the 9th:

DAB 7-Jun 97 1985     8-Jun  99 1985     9-Jun 98 1981
LEE 7-Jun 96 2008     8-Jun  96 1985     9-Jun 98 1985
SFB 7-Jun 100 1998    8-Jun  97 1985     9-Jun 99 2006
MCO 7-Jun 98 1927     8-Jun  99 1985     9-Jun 100 1907
MLB 7-Jun 95 2014     8-Jun  97 1980     9-Jun 97 1941
VRB 7-Jun 98 1986     8-Jun  95 1995     9-Jun 94 1994
FPR 7-Jun 95 1998     8-Jun  95 1949     9-Jun 96 1980

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1241 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

IMPACT:
TS likely for Greater Orlando terminals, including MCO, between
06/19Z-07/00Z. A 15% risk for storms with severe wind/hail.

DISCUSSION:
Plentiful instability will overturn this afternoon as the sea
breezes collide over the peninsula, sparking scattered to numerous
storms between 19Z and 00Z. Gusty winds to 30-50 KT and coin-
sized hail are possible in a few storms, along with frequent
lightning. Highest coverage will be around Greater Orlando
initially before drifting toward the coastal sites through 03Z
before diminishing overnight. Prevailing winds will be SW 5-15 KT,
except E/SE 8-15 KT for the coastal terminals. VFR except near
storms. Overnight, light/variable winds are expected. Another
round of SCT storms expected Friday beyond 07/20Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  72  94  74  94 /  20  50  20  20
MCO  73  96  76  97 /  30  50  20  20
MLB  72  93  74  93 /  30  60  40  20
VRB  72  94  73  94 /  50  60  40  30
LEE  74  96  76  97 /  20  50  10  20
SFB  73  97  75  97 /  20  50  20  20
ORL  74  96  76  97 /  30  50  20  20
FPR  71  94  72  93 /  50  60  40  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Volkmer
AVIATION...Heil