Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
221 FXUS65 KVEF 060804 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 104 AM PDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure will build over the region through Friday, then will gradually break down this weekend as a trough approaches the West Coast. High temperatures as much as 10 to 15 degrees above normal can be expected, with record high temperatures likely for some sites today and Friday. Temperatures will slowly retreat over the weekend, but will remain above normal into early next week. && .SHORT TERM...through Saturday night. Midnight satellite loop showed clear skies areawide aside from a few leftover mid level clouds over far western Esmeralda County. Surface obs showed hot temperatures, including Death Valley and Needles still in triple digits, and light winds areawide. The heat remains the main concern. Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat Warnings through Friday look good, with record highs and record warm lows both in play. Saturday, high temperatures should come down just a bit, but very warm overnight lows will persist, especially in the urbanized and lower elevation areas. Thus, extended the Excessive Heat Warning for Death Valley, western Clark, southern Nye, the Las Vegas Valley, and northeast Clark through Saturday evening. Thunderstorm chances are the secondary concern. High resolution models are painting isolated thunderstorms over the Sierra crest this afternoon, expanding northeastward across Esmeralda County and central Nye County Friday. This is in an area of precipitable water around 0.75 inch, which may not sound like much, but is around 200% of normal for early June. Forecast soundings suggest strong winds will be the main concern with any thunderstorms. Slight drying on Saturday should reduce thunderstorm chances. Wind will be the tertiary concern. Southwesterly gusts around 25 mph over much of our CWA will cause increased fire weather concerns as fuels continue to dry out, but do not look strong enough to prompt a Fire Weather Watch. .LONG TERM...Sunday through next Wednesday. We will finally start to see some minor relief Sunday and Monday as a Pacific trough moves inland and pushes the strong ridge east. We will also see some minor impacts from a weak closed low pushing through northern Baja, mainly in the form of a few more clouds that will help moderate temps a bit. The combination of the lowering heights from the Pacific trough and increasing clouds from the Baja low is expected to help reduce temperatures about 3-5 degrees from Saturday and about 8-10 degrees off the peak of the heat wave. This being said, temperatures will still be averaging about 4-5 degrees above normal. This slight cooling trend is expected to be short- lived as the ridge is expected to rebuild over the western US increasing temperatures once again by mid to late week, however, at this time there is a lot of uncertainty with how hot temperatures will get. Probabilities for 110 in Las Vegas increase to 40% by Wednesday, but the 25th to 75th percentiles range from 105 to 112. Either way you look at it, above-normal temperatures are likely (60- 80%) to continue through at least the 2nd week of June. && .CLIMATE...Several record high temperatures and record high minimum temperatures are in jeopardy of being tied or broken this week. The tables below shows the daily record high temperature and record high minimum temperature for Thursday, June 6 through Saturday, June 8. RECORD HIGH THU, JUNE 6 FRI, JUNE 7 SAT, JUNE 8 Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Las Vegas 110(2010) 109(2013) 112(2013) Bishop 102(2010) 103(2013) 105(2016) Needles 114(2013) 117(2013) 118(1955) Barstow-Daggett 110(1981) 112(1985) 113(2013) Kingman 103(2013) 106(2013) 107(1955) Death Valley 121(1996) 123(1995) 123(2013) RECORD WARM THU, JUNE 6 FRI, JUNE 7 SAT, JUNE 8 LOW Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Las Vegas 83(2019) 86(2010) 84(2016) Bishop 64(2016) 61(2016) 64(2014) Needles 87(2006) 95(2016) 85(2013) Barstow-Daggett 82(1981) 81(2002) 77(2016) Kingman 74(1981) 74(1928) 74(1927) Death Valley 95(2019) 93(2006) 94(2022) && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Winds will remain light, 10 knots or less, and will follow typical diurnal directional trends with period of light and variable winds as they transition. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Winds at the Las Vegas Valley TAF sites will remain relatively light, 10 knots or less, and will follow typical diurnal directional trends. Winds at KBIH will follow typical diurnal directional trends, swinging from the northwest to southeast later this morning/early this afternoon. These southeasterly winds will be accompanied by 15 to 20 knot wind gusts, which will persist through the late afternoon hours. KDAG will favor a westerly direction with a period of light and variable winds later this morning continuing through mid-afternoon when winds will swing back to the west. This shift back to the west will be accompanied by an increase in winds with gusts around 20 knots expected. The Colorado River Valley TAF sites will see light and variable winds pick up and swing around to a more southerly direction early this afternoon. KEED will see 15 to 20 knot gusts accompany winds with this shift. These breezier winds will continue into the evening hours. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ SHORT TERM...Morgan LONG TERM...Gorelow AVIATION...Stessman For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter