Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 230855
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
155 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. A TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS SATURDAY AND
COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

A COUPLE MORE QUIET WEATHER DAYS ARE IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE PATTERN. OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING, THE SKY WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT OVERALL THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL WARM TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

CHANGES BEGIN SATURDAY AS MODELS BRING TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES TO
THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA TODAY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AND SWING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. THE LATEST NAM ACTUALLY GENERATES LIGHT QPF OVER THE
MOJAVE DESERT AND UP INTO LINCOLN COUNTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH. THIS SOLUTION IS THE OUTLIER AT THE
MOMENT AS THE GFS/ECMWF/SREF REMAIN DRY WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS
BRUSHING NORTHWEST ARIZONA. THE TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY
NIGHT RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. A HIRES MODEL SHOWS A
POSSIBLE DOWNSLOPE EVENT DEVELOPING ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES
SATURDAY BUT KEEPS IT ANCHORED TO THE MID AND UPPER SLOPES WITH NO
HINT OF STRONGER WINDS MAKING IT ONTO THE LOWER SLOPES OR INTO THE
OWENS VALLEY. WILL MONITOR THE TROUGHS DEVELOPMENT AND APPROACH
TRACK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO SEE IF IT WILL BRING ANY
SIGNIFICANT WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE AREA REMAINING
UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUNDAY MORNING WILL FEATURE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CONUS...WITH RIDGING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES. THE WESTERN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL ADVANCE EAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR AREA.
LOWER HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT AND SOME INCREASING CLOUDS WILL COOL US
DOWN ABOUT 8-10 DEGREES FROM WHAT WE EXPERIENCE SATURDAY. SURFACE
WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...LATE SUNDAY
ACROSS OUR NORTH AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES MONDAY AS THE FRONT
WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TAKES
HOLD. SOME BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY...PARTICULARLY
DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A FEW DEGREES OF
WARMING...WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS FOR
WEDNESDAY. WILL USE A BALANCED BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
COMBINE WITH THE NAEFS MEAN. THIS WILL KEEP US UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND PROVIDE SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS AS TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 8 KTS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT THEN BECOME LIGHT BY 16Z. AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING TO
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...BESIDES SCT CIRRUS AOA 25K FT ACROSS THE NORTH...CLEAR
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR
BELOW 10KTS NEAR THE AIRFIELDS THROUGH THIS EVENING EXCEPT KBIH
COULD SEE OCCASIONAL STRONGER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

SALMEN/PADDOCK

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