Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000
FXUS65 KVEF 300857
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
200 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN
AND MOJAVE DESERT REGION WILL BRING DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH COOLER
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE COMING WEEK AND INTO THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN EASTERN
MOHAVE COUNTY WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS TAKEN HOLD OF THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO
TROUGHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE SHUNTED
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE MOIST
MONSOONAL FLOW BEING SUBDUED AND PUSHED MORE INTO ARIZONA LEAVING
MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA HIGH AND DRY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
ONLY CAVEAT TO THAT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY THE NEXT
COUPLE AFTERNOONS WHERE SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. EARLY MORNING RUNS OF THE HRRR SUPPORT THIS AGAIN
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR IN
EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY...AND HAVE MAINTAINED POPS FOR THOSE AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED BUT NOTHING
OVERLY SUBSTANCIAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP DOWNWARD THROUGH
TUESDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY...BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH A LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL KEEP THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN/MOJAVE DESERT UNDER A SOUTHWEST
FLOW. LOOK FOR BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SOMETHING TO MONITOR WILL BE THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF DEVELOP A SYSTEM
WELL SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS WEDNESDAY. THE FEATURE MOVES NORTH
BUT LOOKS TO GET SHEARED APART WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FRIDAY
WITH REMNANT MID LEVEL ENERGY GETTING CAUGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
AND MOVING OVER ARIZONA SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BEARS
WATCHING AS SOME OF IT MAY GET PULLED NORTHWARD UP THE COLORADO
RIVER AND INTO WESTERN ARIZONA SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY WITH PERIODS
OF PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED MOST OF THE DAY
WITH SPEEDS OF 12-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. WHILE
UNLIKELY...THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A PERIOD OF SOUTHEAST
WINDS BETWEEN 15Z-18Z. WIND GUSTS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE..JUST PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE OWENS VALLEY AND
NEAR KBIH. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE
NECESSARY. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OUTLER
LONG TERM...PIERCE

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

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