Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 312138
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
238 PM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH WINDY AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION IS
LIKELY IN SOME AREAS WITH SNOW IN THE SIERRA. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SLOW WARMING UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE TO FOLLOW. &&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
A STRONG AND COLD PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WIND HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED IN
BISHOP. THIS WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WIND DEVELOPING
AREAWIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WHILE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN
PLACE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH
WILL COME THROUGH OVERNIGHT BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
PACIFIC MOISTURE IN ITS WAKE. SNOW LEVELS WILL RAPIDLY DESCEND FROM
OVER 9000 TO BELOW 7000 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN THE WEST WITH SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SIERRA. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE
SIERRA ABOVE 7000 FEET. SNOW TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 6 TO
10 INCH RANGE. SHOWERY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF
INYO...ESMERALDA...AND SOUTHERN NYE COUNTIES WITH THE MAIN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION SHIFTING TO THE EAST SATURDAY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO
LINCOLN COUNTY. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BUT LESS LIKELY IN CLARK AND
MOHAVE COUNTIES. A BAND OF INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH
LIFTED INDICES BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE CWA
BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE
AFTERNOON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH LAGGING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO PUSH ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY AS COOLER TEMPERATURES REMAIN
OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NORTH WINDS ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK ALTHOUGH NO WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ELSEWHERE, LIGHTER
NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE MONDAY THEN BEGIN A WARMING TREND THAT WILL
REACH SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY. MODELS BRING SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE NORTHWEST COAST LATE IN
THE WEEK WHICH COULD FLATTEN RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST AT SOME
POINT BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL HAVE ANY IMPACTS ON THE AREA
WEATHER. MODEL RH AND WIND FIELDS REMAIN ON THE LOW END AND FORECAST
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM. WE WILL MONITOR FOR MODEL CHANGES TO THE
SYSTEM AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SCT TO
BKN CLOUDS AOA 25KFT. WIND WILL DECREASE A LITTLE OVERNIGHT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER 11Z BRINGING CIGS DOWN TO
5-10KFT. WIND SHOULD REMAIN 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20KT BUT A PERIOD
OF LIGHTER WIND IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z. WIND WILL INCREASE
AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTH.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A STORM
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. GUSTS TO 30KT ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME
AREAS. CLOUD BASES WILL DESCEND AS A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. BASES OF 5-10KFT ARE POSSIBLE WITH -SH MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF A KDAG TO KLAS TO KIGM LINE. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE SIERRA AND
WHITE MOUNTAINS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. &&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION: BERC
LONG TERM: SALMEN

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