Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 210331 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
830 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY PRODUCING LOCALLY BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
SOME CLOUD COVER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BRING INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.UPDATE...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
ALTHOUGH THE MODELS STILL INDICATE SOME DOWNSLOPE POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. NO
UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&

PREV DISCUSSION
305 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LINGERING MOISTURE AND WEAK
INSTABILITY WAS RESULTING IN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MOHAVE
COUNTY BUT NO SHOWERS YET. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP THERE THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY BY EARLY EVENING. MEANWHILE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST WAS GENERATING
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
SOME CLOUD COVER. THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SIERRA TONIGHT BRINGING
SOME POTENTIAL FOR DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES.
THE 12Z HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH WIND SPEEDS BOTH IN
THE BISHOP AND INDEPENDENCE AREAS. SO AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS A WIND
ADVISORY IS NOT NEEDED. I KEPT THE FORECAST DRY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
WITH THIS SYSTEM ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN IS GENERATING
SOME QPF IN LINCOLN COUNTY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS IS NOT REALLY
SUPPORTED BY OTHER MODELS. RIDGING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
COOLEST OF THE THREE DAYS ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH IN MOST
AREAS. A BIT OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE IS EXPECTED IN EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH BUT GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY AS WE
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HIGH PRESSURE AREA. MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH WITH THE ECMWF
SLOWER AND THE GFS REMAINING THE SAME. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE MORE
INLINE WITH THE LATEST GFS AND TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THAT
DIRECTION.

WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD THE TROUGH AND SHOULD
BE STRONGEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. A FEW LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DOWNSLOPE
SIGNATURES ALONG THE SIERRA ON SATURDAY AND WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY DROPPING TEMPERATURES 8 TO 12 DEGREES ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 14KFT THROUGH
TONIGHT. SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25KFT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
EAST WINDS 8 KTS OF LESS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST UP TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS MOST OF TUESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER INYO...ESMERALDA...AND
CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES 10-20 MPH WITH POTENTIALLY HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BECOMING NORTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING IN INYO AND NYE
COUNTIES. MAINLY SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KTS THROUGH TUESDAY ELSEWHERE.
STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LIKELY ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA
SLOPES TONIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GORELOW
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HARRISON
LONG TERM...STUMPF

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