Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000
FXUS65 KVEF 050256
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
756 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL PROVIDE
SOUTHWEST FLOW...GRADUALLY DRIER CONDITIONS AND SOME COOLING OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THROUGH TUESDAY...ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PRIMARILY BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF INYO COUNTY...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
&&

.UPDATE...CONVECTION HAS BEEN MOST EAGER TO GO IN INYO COUNTY THIS
EVENING, WHICH GIVEN THE DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
OFFSHORE MAKES SENSE AS THIS IS HELPING TO LIFT THE AIR PARCELS IN
THE NORTHWEST CWFA. THE ONLY CHANGE THIS EVENING WAS TO INCREASE
POPS OVER NORTHERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY WHERE CONVECTION HAS ALSO
MANAGED TO FIRE. THE ENVIRONMENT HERE IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AND GIVEN
THE LACK OF ANY LARGER SCALE FEATURES THIS AREA SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY
END QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD
SHAPE AT THIS TIME.

LAS VEGAS ONLY HIT 102 TODAY WHICH SNAPPED THE STRETCH OF
CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES. AN UPDATED RER AND
GRAPHICS HAVE BEEN ISSUED WITH MORE INFORMATION.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 228 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND
WITH MOISTURE REMAINING UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EASTERN SIERRA AND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...AS WELL AS MOHAVE COUNTY.
ADDITIONALLY...THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A MODEST PUSH OF MOISTURE
INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF MOHAVE COUNTY...WHICH MAY
ENHANCE THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THERE. ON MONDAY...THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE AREA WILL BE UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE WHICH
MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
INYO...ESMERALDA... CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES.

THE UPPER LOW OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD
THE COAST ON MONDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND DRYING
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LINGERING AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AN UPPER LOW OFF OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH DRY AND STABLE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVERTAKING THE FORECAST AREA. BY WEDNESDAY THE
DRIER AIR SHOULD ELIMINATE THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INLAND LATE IN
THE WEEK. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SLIGHTLY DECREASE WHICH WILL CAUSE SURFACE
TEMPS TO TREND COOLER FROM MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THEY MAY BE VARIABLE AT TIMES.
ISOLATED SHOWERS...SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. FEW CLOUDS AROUND 10K FEET WITH SKIES REMAINING
BKN AT 12-20K. STEADIER SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 20KTS POSSIBLE.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER LINCOLN AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES ALONG WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF INYO COUNTY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 10KTS...BUT WEST WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE MOJAVE DESERT WILL BE 15-20 KTS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STACHELSKI
PREVIOUS...CZYZYK/PADDOCK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER


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