Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 010945
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
245 AM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
MONSOON MOISTURE SEEPING BACK INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA WILL BRING A
RETURNED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THIS MORNING FEATURES BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS...NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS...AND QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE EASTERN STATES.
CENTRAL CONUS TROUGHING WILL TRANSITION EASTWARD THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD...WHILE A TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL SLIDE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS MEANS OUR NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW BY WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND TYPICAL DIURNAL
SURFACE WIND PATTERNS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD START
TO SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH
TUESDAY...MORE SO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN JUST
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW WOULD SUGGEST CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, MODELS
FORECAST SOME LIGHT QPF REACHING INTO MOHAVE COUNTY AT TIMES. THIS
IS PARTLY DUE TO TROUGHING NEAR OR ALONG THE PACIFIC NW COAST
COMBINING WITH A PRE-MOISTENED ENVIRONMENT OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE
DEEPER POOL OF MOISTURE IS THANKS TO A TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT IS
FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA FRIDAY MORNING MOVING NORTHWEST ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
BAJA THROUGH SATURDAY. IT TAKES SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REACHES INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...SUNDAY ACCORDING TO THE GFS AND MONDAY
PER THE LATEST ECMWF. BOTH MODELS ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
PRECIPITATION TO BASICALLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. FOR NOW, HAVE LEFT
THE FORECAST DRY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS
MENTIONED IN MOHAVE COUNTY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY BUT THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA COULD SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
BEYOND WITH HIGHER MOISTURE AND MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...CLEAR SKIES THROUGH LABOR DAY WITH WINDS
FAVORING TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS MAINLY BELOW 10 KTS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...CLEAR SKIES THROUGH LABOR DAY WITH WINDS FAVORING
TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
AND MOHAVE COUNTY WHERE WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15 KTS ARE EXPECTED.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PADDOCK
LONG TERM...SALMEN

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