Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000
FXUS65 KVEF 241819
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1119 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE TODAY AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
ACROSS THE REGION. A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING WINDS SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING AND NO UPDATES PLANNED.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT EAST WINDS UNDER 10 KTS INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE WINDS RETURN TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN
00Z-03Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. STRONGER
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 25K FT ACROSS THE NORTH WILL SHIFT
EAST LEAVING BEHIND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT/FRIDAY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10KTS NEAR THE AIRFIELDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE KBIH WHERE STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL OCCUR FRIDAY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 234 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA TODAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON SOUTHERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED...GENERALLY
AROUND 10 MPH IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND 10
TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE NORTH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FELT IN THE
OWENS VALLEY WHERE GUSTS TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST TONIGHT AND EFFECTS WILL
BEGIN TO BE FELT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA RIDGETOPS AND ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES WHERE GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. MODELS FORECAST
THE LOW OPENING UP AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OREGON
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN IT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS AN OPEN WAVE. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH DOWNSLOPE
WINDS PUSHING ONTO THE LOWER EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE OWENS VALLEY. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING LATE
SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR
THESE AREAS. BASED ON LOCAL HIRES MODEL DATA, THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ACROSS NYE COUNTY AND THE SPRING
MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY AS WELL BUT THERE REMAINS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY
THAT A DECISION ON WHETHER TO ISSUE ANYTHING FOR THOSE AREAS WILL BE
PASSED ON TO THE NEXT SHIFT. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE SATURDAY
EVENING IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT GUSTY CONDITIONS COULD LINGER THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SPRING MOUNTAINS.

ONCE THE THROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA, COOLER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS...WHICH HAPPENS TO BE 76 DEGREES IN LAS VEGAS.
THERE COULD BE A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN ZONE MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY BUT FOR THE MOST PART, MODELS AGREE THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION OUT OF THIS SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH. A NORTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WILL ALSO BE
IN PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER. ADDITIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED
MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE ECMWF
MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS AND GEM AND CONSEQUENTLY WARMER. I KEPT
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN THE ECMWF DUE TO THE
FLATTER RIDGE THE OTHER MODELS ARE FORECASTING BUT STILL WARMING TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE MODELS MOVE THE RIDGE AXIS EAST
THURSDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. HOWEVER THERE IS NOT GOOD
AGREEMENT IN HOW FAR EAST THIS TROUGH PROGRESSES. I BASICALLY WENT
WITH THE GFS WHICH IS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD...KEEPING THE TROUGH
OFFSHORE WITH SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CWA. THE
RESULT IS MINIMAL CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY AND
SOME SOUTHERLY BREEZES STARTING TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH TODAY BUT REPORTS OF STRONG WIND SPEEDS AND/OR DAMAGE WILL
BE NEEDED FROM INYO COUNTY SPOTTERS ON SATURDAY.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
PREV DICUSSION...SALMEN/HARRISON

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