Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000
FXUS65 KVEF 242238
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
338 PM PDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. IN
ADDITION...STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE
DESERT FRIDAY AND BECOME QUITE STRONG ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN AREAS
OF BLOWING DUST. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN FAIRLY ISOLATED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MOST ACTIVITY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF LINCOLN AND
EASTERN CLARK COUNTIES. DRIER AND A BIT MORE STABLE AIR WAS WORKING
IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING
THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN AREAS OF THE GREAT BASIN. ALONG WITH THIS
DRIER AIR ARE STRONG WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN BLOWING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW PLACES THAT HAVE
GUSTED OVER 50 MPH WITH BICYCLE LAKE JUST REACHING 58 MPH WITHIN THE
PAST HOUR. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO LULL A BIT OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN
SATURDAY. CURRENTLY WE HAVE WIND ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR THE WESTERN
MOJAVE DESERT THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT THAT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE
UPGRADED TO A WARNING OVERNIGHT AS WINDS MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 60 MPH
SATURDAY.

WITH THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
AREAS OF THE CWA AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AHEAD AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING OVER ESMERALDA...CENTRAL NYE AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT TRACKS SOUTH SATURDAY
EVENING...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER CLARK AND
MOHAVE COUNTIES WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
MOHAVE CLARK COUNTY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER MOHAVE
COUNTY. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS
EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO...SOUTHERN CLARK AND MOHAVE COUNTIES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE
AREAS INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT FAIRLY
QUICKLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ENDING BY
SUNDAY MORNING LEAVING GUSTY NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.

OUTSIDE OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE FAR EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA
SUNDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER AND ADVISORIES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH READINGS DOWN ABOUT 5-7
DEGREES WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA ON
MONDAY...BUT NORTHERLY WINDS...PARTICULARLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY WILL PERSIST FOR ONE MORE DAY...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER THAN ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO AROUND THE
SEASONAL NORMS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH IS THE LOW 80S IN LAS
VEGAS. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND WILL SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD BOTH
DAYS...CLIMBING ON AVERAGE 10 DEGREES BETWEEN MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE STRENGTH AND EXACT TIMING...BUT THE
GFS...GEFS AND ECMWF HAVE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE SOME INCREASE IN WINDS...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF LAS VEGAS BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE WITH THE
TROUGH LOOKS TO BE WINDS WITH MOISTURE BEING LIMITED AND WELL NORTH
OF OUR AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 15-25
KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 KTS EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING...BUT
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER 06Z TO AROUND 10-15 KTS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE SATURDAY MORNING WITH WINDS
BETWEEN 20-30 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS AT TIMES. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
MOST REMAINING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER ITS POSSIBLE THAT THEY
MAY DEVELOP IN THE VALLEY BETWEEN 22Z-04Z. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE 8K FEET BUT MAY LOWER TO AROUND 6K FEET NEAR ANY
SHOWERS.

.FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...STRONG WEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER WESTERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY WHERE GUST TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS
EVENING. ELSEWHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING WINDS LESS THAN 15
KTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING OVER
MAINLY LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES. GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER ESMERALDA...CENTRAL NYE AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. CIGS MAY LOWER TO AROUND 5-6K FEET AT TIMES NEAR
ANY RAINFALL.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GORELOW
LONG TERM...CZYZYK

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