Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 281556
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
856 AM PDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Near normal temperatures can be expected for the
holiday weekend with precipitation chances confined mainly to the
Sierra and southern Great Basin as well as the Spring Mountains.
Otherwise...most areas will be dry with fairly light winds.
Temperatures will heat up next week with widespread triple digit
heat possible by midweek.
&&

.UPDATE...Erosion of the warm layer aloft aided by cyclonic flow
taking over the area will allow for more cumulus to bubble up in
the heat of the day today. With limited moisture available, expect
any showers or stray lightning strikes to stay on the Spring
Mountains and the mountains in Inyo County. Southerly breezes will
likely develop the afternoon, but do not expect any issues with
speeds topping out around 15 mph.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 AM PDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday.

A weak upper level low will progress across our region over the next
couple days bringing a chance of mainly mountain shower activity
both this afternoon and again Sunday.  Shower chances look mainly
limited to the Sierra and southern Great Basin. Limited moisture
will keep coverage only isolated to scattered, but a few lightning
strikes and some gusty winds will be possible. Elsewhere, dry
conditions are expected with seasonable temperatures.  On Monday,
upper low will begin to drift east and high pressure will nudge into
the region. This will allow a warming trend to commence and drier
and more stable conditions to return to the area. A few isolated
mountain showers will remain possible but things will be trending
drier across the Sierra and southern Great Basin.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday.

Other than a very small chance of a shower/storm across the Sierra
Nevada on Tuesday, the main story is increasing temperatures next
week. Models have been in fairly good agreement the last couple of
days with a strengthening ridge moving into the western CONUS.
However, model differences have developed in the Thursday through
Saturday time frame with the 00Z and to a certain extent yesterday`s
12Z models. The 00Z ECMWF wants to keep strong ridging over the
forecast area, which will keep the triple digit heat going strong
across the Mojave Desert. The 00Z GFS, on the other hand, creates a
little more troughing along the west coast which lowers heights and
cools temps just a bit Friday and into the weekend. The GEFS and
NAEFS mean solutions are a fairly good compromise. Have leaned this
way for now, which also means only minor tweaks to the temp
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Main concerns Saturday will be gusty
south and southeast winds developing in the afternoon hours with
gusts to 20 knots possible. Southeast wind directions will be
favored through most of the afternoon before shifting more south
southwest by the evening. Otherwise...mostly sunny with just some
mountain cumulus build ups and perhaps a stray shower over the
Spring Mountains.

For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...Southerly winds with gusts to 20 knots will materialize
for most areas by this afternoon. A few showers will be possible
across the Sierra and southern Great Basin during the afternoon
which may result in pockets of convective turbulence and gusty
surface winds.

&&
&&
$$

Update...Steele
Short Term...Outler
Aviation...Outler
Long Term...Paddock

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