Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000
FXUS65 KVEF 250449 CCA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
913 PM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PUSH OF MOISTURE UP THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL
BRING MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE MOJAVE DESERT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PUSH OF
MOISTURE WILL BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
ON SUNDAY.
&&

.UPDATE...SATELLITE LOOPS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CLEARLY SHOW
THAT MOISTURE IS ON ITS WAY BACK TO OUR FORECAST AREA AND WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHEAST MOHAVE COUNTY EARLIER THIS EVENING AIDED IN PUSHING
MOISTURE OUR DIRECTION WITH GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH PERSISTING FROM
KINGMAN ACROSS EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO AND SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTIES.
DEWPOINTS JUMPED FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 50S. A LOOK UPSTREAM
TO YUMA AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON SURFACE ANALYSES ALSO
REVEALS A BROAD INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE
YUMA DOPPLER RADAR VERTICAL WIND PROFILE SHOWED A STEADY 15-20 KNOT
SOUTHERLY FLOW UP TO 8 KFT. THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT
PUSH OF MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA UP INTO
SOUTHERN NEVADA BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE 00Z GFS IS NOT AS BULLISH BUT
STILL SIGNIFICANT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 INCHES OVER
CLARK COUNTY BY 18Z FRIDAY. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...WILL UPDATE
POP/WX GRIDS TO AT LEAST INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS ALL AREAS FROM CLARK COUNTY SOUTHWARD.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
243 PM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE LOOP AND AREA
RADARS SHOWED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER YAVAPAI AND LA PAZ
COUNTIES AND BEGINNING TO INVADE MOHAVE COUNTY AT 230 PM. SURFACE
OBS SHOWED SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND HOT TEMPERATURES. CONCERN FOR THIS
PACKAGE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A PUSH OF MOISTURE COMING FROM THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWED A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NEAR THE TIP OF THE BAJA
EARLIER...AND THIS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE GULF AND EXTENDING INTO FAR SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA. MODELS SHOW STRONG SOUTH WINDS PUSHING UP THE COLORADO
RIVER OVERNIGHT...WITH A RAPID INCREASE IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND
DESTABILIZATION. THE AMOUNT OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A PUSH
LIKE THIS IS TOUGH TO DETERMINE MUCH AHEAD OF TIME...BUT RAISED POPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN DESERTS AND ALSO DEWPOINTS AS WELL. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO EXPAND NORTHWEST OF I-15 ON SATURDAY BUT
STILL STAY OUT OF ESMERALDA AND INYO COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE AREA AND ALONG
WITH IT AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. SOME INSTABILITY WILL BE IN
PLACE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OVER MOHAVE COUNTY WHERE STORMS ARE
MOST LIKELY. WHILE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE MAY BE IN PLACE ACROSS CLARK
AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...INSTABILITY SEEMS MARGINAL
WITH TERRAIN OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LIKELY REQUIRED TO INITIATE
CONVECTION. ANTECEDENT CLOUD COVER MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING AFTER THAT AS DRIER CONDITIONS BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...A PUSH OF MOISTURE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TERMINAL
AREA...WITH A BETTER CHANCE IN THE PEACH SPRINGS CORRIDOR.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE NEAR AND EAST OF THE TERMINAL ON
SATURDAY...THEN SPREAD TO ALL CORRIDORS ON SUNDAY. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TERMINAL THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SOME CHANCE OF A PERIOD OF EAST
WINDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 15 BY FRIDAY MORNING...TO AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM YUCCA VALLEY TO RACHEL ON
SATURDAY...AND THEN AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAIR
PREV DISCUSSION...MORGAN/BERC

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