Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000
FXUS65 KVEF 032159
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
259 PM PDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND WARM WEATHER CONTINUES INTO MIDWEEK AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES OVERSPREADING THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY.

RELATIVELY QUITE WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS OVER UTAH STAVING OFF RETURN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. AS THIS
RIDGE AXIS NUDGES EASTWARD WITH THE NEXT LOW APPROACHING THE
COAST...EXPECT TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO YIELD INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE WINDIEST DAY ON THURSDAY.
GRIDS CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA..BUT LOW LEVEL
KINETIC FIELDS AND RESPONSE TO MID AND UPPER LEVEL GRADIENTS REMAINS
UNIMPRESSIVE STILL, SO HAVE OPTED TO NOT ISSUE PRODUCTS AS THIS
TIME.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

MOST GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT WITH CLOSING OFF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SOMETIME BY WEDNESDAY AS THE POLAR BRANCH OF THE JET AT THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH MERGES WITH THE SUBTROPICAL BRANCH. MODELS THEN KEEP THE
LOW CENTER JUST OFF SHORE AND DIG THE LOW FURTHER DOWN THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, SWINGING ON SHORE NEAR SAN DIEGO. WITH THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW...AND GIVEN THE
OFFSHORE AND MORE SOUTHERN DIP OF THE LOW..HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES
TO POPS. MODELS STRUGGLE TO BRING MOISTURE IN...HOWEVER MODELS HAVE
UNDERDONE MOISTURE TO VARYING DEGREES WITH THE PAST FEW SYSTEM.
GIVEN THE TRACK...SUSPECT POPS ARE CURRENTLY ON THE LOW END AND WILL
NEED TO BE INCREASED IF CURRENT TRACK HOLDS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE AREA WIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE CUTOFF LOW
LINGERS UNTIL A KICKER SYSTEM MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA SOMETIME
ON SUNDAY. COLD TEMPS ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING OVERHEAD
WILL SUPPORT CHANCES FOR THUNDER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL. SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD DROP TO ABOUT 7000 FEET BY FRIDAY AND REMAIN SIMILAR
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DROPPING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON MOUNTAINS. ALL IN ALL, NOT TOO
DISSIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW SYSTEMS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
LONGER DURATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ROUND.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...EASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 23 UTC. HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. WEDNESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 10-15KTS WILL GIVE WAY TO
PREDOMINATELY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. STRONGER
WINDS WITH MORE FREQUENT GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...STEELE
AVIATION..............LERICOS

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