876
FXUS65 KVEF 101903
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1203 PM PDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm weather with periods of excessive heat will be
the main weather concern through midweek as a ridge builds over
the region. A weak weather system moving through Thursday and
Friday will allow for slight cooling and an increase in surface
winds...but temperatures will remain above normal through the
weekend. Uncertainty increases next week with potential for breezy
conditions and possibly a more noteworthy cool down.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through early next week.

Midday satellite imagery depicts mostly clear skies across the
region today while temperatures are hovering just slightly cooler
than observed at this time yesterday. With reduced cloud cover,
afternoon highs should quickly catch up and top out near or slightly
warmer than Sunday for most areas.

Temperatures will climb more tomorrow and Wednesday as a sharp
ridge axis builds north out of northern Mexico and Arizona and
pokes into the Great Basin region. Meanwhile, a weak cut off low
will take shape off the coast of SoCal. This pattern will spell
hot temperatures for the region with widespread moderate heat risk
across the region.

Under the most intense axis of the ridge, stretching from Death
Valley into Southern Nevada and Northwest Arizona, pockets of
Major heat risk continue to be advertised for Tuesday and
Wednesday, which closely aligns with the ongoing Excessive Heat
Warning set to begin at 10 am Tuesday and continue through 9 pm
Wednesday evening. Latest NBM probabilities have a 50 percent
chance of Las Vegas reaching or exceeding 110 degrees by Tuesday
afternoon, and a 67 percent chance Wednesday. During these periods
of excessive heat, extra heat safety precautions are strongly
encouraged including limiting outdoor exposure, staying hydrated,
and checking on more vulnerable groups who have sensitivities to
the heat.

By Thursday, the aforementioned weak cut off low offshore of
southern California will begin to push inland and shunt our ridge
axis to the east. This will begin a trend of very modest cooling
Thursday and Friday, while still remaining above normal. A modest
increase in southerly surface winds can also be expected Thursday
as the low makes its approach. The low pressure system itself
will move through pretty moisture starved, however, it will begin
to interact with some mid-level moisture across central and
eastern Arizona, and may spark a high based shower or or
thunderstorm across far eastern Mohave County thursday afternoon,
with some lingering potential persisting into Friday as well.

Uncertainty increases over the weekend and beyond as the various
ensemble guidance is struggling on the details of potential
renewed troughing across the West. Weaker trough solutions would
suggest some afternoon breeziness and continued above normal
temperatures, while solutions favoring a stronger trough would
lead to temperatures falling below normal and potential for
periods of windy conditions with enhanced fire weather danger. The
deterministic NBM guidance favors a middle ground solution for
now, with temperatures falling to near normal with breezy
conditions area wide.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Winds will generally remain light
through early afternoon, but will gradually become more east to
southeast this afternoon with speeds between 6-10 knots. Around
sunset, look for winds to shift to the south-southwest, and persist
through the night. Similar pattern expected tomorrow, but winds will
be slightly weaker. Mostly clear skies with just a few high clouds.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Much of the area will see wind speeds less than 10
knots through the afternoon with a few localized gusts between 10-15
knots at times. Wind directions will vary with most areas seeing a
general south to southwest wind with the exception in the Las Vegas
Valley where a east to southeast wind will prevail through the
afternoon. Similar conditions will persist Tuesday. Mostly clear
skies with just a few high clouds, expect a FEW cumulus clouds over
the Sierra.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Outler
AVIATION...Gorelow

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