Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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424 FXUS64 KJAN 060915 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 415 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 ...New DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 414 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Today and tonight: Low pressure will begin to shift east as a cold front pushes south across the area today. Rain and storms will remain possible along and ahead of the front where moisture remains abundant, mainly the southeastern half of the area. Storms will gradually shift southeastward as the cold front continues to sag. Storms taper off tonight as a drier, post frontal airmass takes hold, with quiet conditions likely to persist over the next couple days./SAS Friday through Wednesday: A stronger than normal ridge of high pressure aloft will migrate from the Southern High Plains to over the Gulf Coast Friday into this weekend - shifting the focus for above normal temperatures towards our area especially for Sunday. As such, precip is not expected Friday or Saturday, but a "cold front" nudged southward into our forecast area Sunday afternoon/evening time frame is likely to trigger some amount of convection as it moves southward. At this time it appears that anticipated peak heat index values ahead of this front could be in the 100-105 degree range. If afternoon dew points hang on in the lower 70s before the front`s arrival without too much mixing, the heat threat could be enough to warrant a Heat Advisory for a part of the area. Regardless, it will be a hot day with potentially unstable air south of the arriving front. It`s conceivable that storms developing north of our area could make a run southward through the afternoon and evening hours, so have nudged the Slight Chance POPs a little farther south compared to NBM guidance on Sunday and boosted POPs some into Sunday night. Some chance for rain will linger around the Coastal regions through the middle of the week as an uncertain evolves with a few shortwaves rippling over the South. /NF/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1251 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 VFR and MVFR conditions are being observed, with some stratus beginning to build in where rain was observed yesterday. Stratus should continue to build, mostly in the southeast this morning and will briefly drop ceilings to MVFR/IFR before lifting by mid morning. Isolated to scattered showers are possible tonight into early this morning for eastern sites. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon, beginning around 19z for southeastern sites. Winds will generally be from the west around 5mph./SAS/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 88 70 89 63 / 10 0 0 0 Meridian 89 68 91 63 / 20 0 0 0 Vicksburg 89 70 89 65 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 90 71 93 66 / 50 0 0 0 Natchez 88 69 90 65 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 91 70 89 66 / 10 0 0 0 Greenwood 90 69 88 63 / 10 10 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ SAS20/NF/SAS20