536
FXUS62 KMHX 030702
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
302 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cloudy and foggy start to the day will give way to more typical
scattered showers and thunderstorms as frontal boundary stalls
over the area. High pressure builds in from the west through
the holiday weekend with the frontal boundary stalling off the
Southeast coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 300 AM Thurs...

Key messages:

- Risk of low stratus and fog to start Thursday morning.
- Lower coverage of showers and storms this afternoon and evening,
  although risk of iso flash flooding remains.

Latest analysis shows broad troughing persisting over the mid-
Atlantic and northeastern CONUS, with a second weaker trough
sitting over the southeast. At the surface, frontal boundary is
stalled over the Piedmont of NC, leaving eastern NC in weak
southerly but warm and muggy flow. This airmass is proving
favorable for low stratus and fog development, especially along
the I-95 corridor. Expecting this bank to expand southward
through the morning, building in behind iso to sct shower
activity developing along an offshore trough. Aforementioned
precipitation is most likely east of Highway 17 and the Outer
banks, although it is not expected to be nearly as torrential as
yesterday`s storms.

Front is forecast to edge eastward through the day, eventually
stalling over ENC in the afternoon. By this time, more drier air
will be working in aloft and forcing will be considerably weaker
which should limit overall coverage compared to yesterday.
However, with PWATs still between 1.50-2" and very slow forecast
storm motions, periods of heavy rainfall are still in the cards
with a risk of isolated flash flooding. Most favored area for
convection is along and slightly north of the Highway 24
corridor, along the slow moving sea breeze, with additional
development likely upstream along the stalled and diffuse
frontal boundary.

Highs reach to near 90 inland, mid to upper 80s OBX.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Thur...Typical summertime evening for ENC as
afternoon convection gradually disperses, giving way to mostly
clear skies and lows falling into the low to mid 70s. Winds once
again remain light as front remains stalled over the region, and
with very moist soils conditions remain favorable for some fog
development in the early morning hours. A few spotty showers may
graze the Outer Banks as activity blossoms over the Gulf Stream
Fri morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1:30 AM Thursday...

Key Messages

 - High pressure builds in late week, bringing back the typical
summertime pattern with sea breeze convection

 - Tropical or subtropical development is possible this
weekend/early next week off the southeast coast

A mid-level shortwave rounding the base of a closed low over
southern Quebec will push a weak reinforcing cold front south into
our CWA early Friday. This feature doesn`t look to bring much more
than a wind shift to the north with the focus of afternoon shower
and thunderstorm chances being along the sea breeze. The weekend
will host our typical summertime pattern with daily seabreeze
convection and highs in the upper-80s.

The front that will stall across the area today will eventually
stall off the southeast coast this weekend. A low pressure system is
then forecast to develop along this boundary near Florida or the
southeast coast by early this weekend. NHC is giving this
disturbance a 50% chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical
depression with guidance showing north or northeastward movement
thereafter. A lot of uncertainty remains, but regardless of where
this system ultimately moves, higher than normal daily rain chances
can be expected through mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 06z Fri/...
As of 300 AM Thurs...Mixed bag of flight conditions this morning
across ENC terminals as slow moving cold front sits over the NC
Piedmont. Bank of fog and low stratus has already quickly
developed to our north and west, stretching from KORF
southwestward to KJNX. MVFR is predominant in our region with
spotty convection over the waters occasionally bleeding inland.
Forecast calls for low stratus deck to gradually expand
southward through the morning as aforementioned shower activity
shifts further offshore, although LAMP guidance seems to be more
aggressive than observations. PGV and ISO remain the most
likely to see IFR cigs and fog, but EWN and OAJ are likely to
see restrictions closer to dawn.

With light winds today and poor mixing, cigs will be slower to
lift than usual. Still, VFR is likely to prevail by midday with
a renewed risk of showers and thunderstorms focused along the
seabreeze, with activity gradually expanding northward. EWN and
OAJ have the highest chance of experiencing convective impacts.
Precipitation quickly dies off after sunset.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 2 AM Thursday...Predominantly VFR conditions are expected
through the period outside of afternoon shower and thunderstorm
chances. There`s potential for a tropical or subtropical
depression to develop off the southeast coast this weekend or
early next week which will increase chances for sub-VFR flight
conditions into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 300 AM Thurs...

Key Messages

 - Shower and thunderstorm activity continues over area waters
   through this morning

Regional observations show southwesterly winds of 10-15 kt
continuing over area waters this morning as cold front remains
across western NC, with seas around 3-5 feet. Overnight
convection coverage is quite robust, impacting all marine zones,
and will remain a concern for boaters through the morning hours
before waning late morning. Frontal boundary will stall over ENC
later this afternoon, resulting in variable but generally light
winds of 10 kt or less through Thurs PM. Front will finally push
offshore on Fri morning with more widespread northerly winds
expected to prevail by the end of the short term. With light
winds, seas fall further to around 2-3 feet.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 2:10 AM Thursday...Sub- SCA conditions are expected
through the period. 10-15 kt winds will veer to the northeast
Friday morning and remain status quo until Saturday afternoon
when they become more easterly. Winds will continue to veer to
the southeast on Sunday and then to the south on Monday. Seas
will generally be 2-4 ft on Friday, increase to 2-5 ft this
weekend south of Cape Hatteras, and then return to 2-4 ft to
start the new week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...MS/OJC
MARINE...MS/OJC