538
FXUS63 KMPX 102033
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
333 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and a few thunderstorms expected tonight into Tuesday
  morning. Redevelopment of a few strong thunderstorms possible
  in eastern MN/WI Tuesday afternoon.

- Warm and muggy Wednesday with strong to severe thunderstorms possible
  in the afternoon and evening.

- Seasonable temperatures to end the week with precip chances
  returning next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Very pleasant with mostly sunny skies, light winds, and temperatures
reaching the low 70s across many areas this afternoon. A few
high clouds were observed over northwestern MN and making their
way eastward. Cloud coverage will increase as the night
progresses as a shortwave consisting of showers and
thunderstorms approaches from our west. Timing remains
consistent with the previous discussion where western MN precip
develops around 1 AM, MN/WI border by 7 AM, and departing
western WI early afternoon. Another batch of thunderstorm
development remains in the CAM guidance. Strength and intensity
will greatly depend on cloud cover following in the wake of
earlier precip. Should enough surface heating occur between
breaks in this cloud cover, 500-1000 j/kg of MLCAPE and 30-40kts
of bulk shear could become available to generate scattered
strong thunderstorms. Given the elevated instability, the Storm
Prediction Center (SPC) has place a marginal risk (level 1 of 5)
of severe thunderstorms along the I-35 corridor and east into
Wisconsin with wind and hail being the primary threats. The
forecasted QPF with this system will range between one to two
tenths of an inch, although a few areas could see closer to a
half inch where updrafts are strongest.

Wednesday forecast looks to provide us a good taste of summer. It
will be a hot and muggy day across the northern plains where
temperatures will reach the mid to upper 80s and even a few 90s
(especially across western MN). Accompanying the warmer air,
southerly flow will also increase surface dew points into the 60s.
Zonal flow aloft will advect in a shortwave that develops over the
intermountain west. As of now by tomorrow afternoon, an environment
that consists of 2000-3000 MLCAPE, 40-50 bulk shear, and PWATs
between 1.5-1.8" will create another chance of severe weather
Wednesday afternoon and evening. Much of central and southern MN,
and western WI have been placed under a slight risk (level 1 of 2)
for severe thunderstorms by the SPC. The initial severe threat will
begin as supercells capable of producing large (and potentially very
large ~near 2.0") hail across western and central MN. Upscale growth
with this system is expected as the evening progresses and therefore
the initial hail threat will become a wind threat over eastern
MN and western WI. Another hazard will be torrential rainfall as
PWATs range between 1.5-1.8" in the forecast guidance. Flash
flooding is not concern other than small streams and the typical
urban areas. QPF with this event looks to be the better
performer than the preceding Tuesday system with accumulations
between a half inch to an inch of rain. Highest amounts will
linger around southeastern MN.

For the rest of the forecast period, Thursday will hang onto slight
PoPs as a secondary frontal boundary advances across the northern
plains. Temperatures will return to the lower 80s. Friday will be
another beautiful day as skies look to be mostly clear as ridging
will be at its max over the central CONUS. By Saturday, the ridge
progs east and and another shortwave will bring likely showers and
thunder Saturday night into Sunday. Forecast guidance at the h850
levels holding onto the idea of a "ring of fire" over the east coast
which will place MN/WI on the western periphery. This meaning highs
could reach into the upper 80s and low 90s Sunday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

VFR to start for all TAF sites with generally light/variable
winds. Winds will eventually become SE later this afternoon with
speeds close to 10kts. Winds will continue to steadily veer to S
overnight then to SW during the day Tuesday with speeds
increasing to near 15G20kts. Clouds will increase late this
afternoon, with upper level ceilings developing this evening
that will lower to the mid-levels overnight. Rain will develop
over western MN overnight and press eastward over eastern MN
around or shortly after daybreak then spread into western WI.
Very little in the way of CB/TS expected overnight into tomorrow
thus have kept its mention out of this TAF set. Once the morning
rain ends, additional scattered convection looks to develop
Tuesday afternoon so some isolated/scattered CB/TS is possible
then. At this point, have only gone the "chance" route with MSP.
With the rain tonight into tomorrow, MVFR conditions are likely
during and shortly after until partial afternoon clearing.

KMSP...Light/variable winds will persist into late afternoon,
then winds pick up from the SE this evening through tonight in
the 5-10kts range. Winds then continue veering to SW during the
day tomorrow with speeds nudging up to 10-15kts. Showers move
into the area prior to daybreak, with best timing of rain at MSP
right around sunrise and continuing through late morning. Some
heavier batches of rain look to bring visibility into MVFR range
late morning. After this morning rain diminishes, scattered
SHRA/TSRA will develop in the afternoon, which could impact MSP
later on Tuesday. Uncertainty as to the timing/placement forces
just a PROB30 mention at this point so this will be adjusted in
later TAFs.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...Mainly VFR. MVFR/-TSRA likely late. Wind SW 10 kts.
THU...Mainly VFR. Slight chance MVFR/-SHRA. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...JPC