Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 270605
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
105 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS ARE MINIMAL TODAY AS THE CENTER OF A
SURFACE RIDGE SPREADS EAST INTO MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE AND ARE IN
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING TONIGHT DUE TO ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH...LOW
TEMPS WERE DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FROM CONSENSUS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL
SLIDE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MN TONIGHT. IT MAY SPARK OFF A
SHOWER OR TWO...BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR IS RATHER DRY AND WILL
MITIGATE MUCH FROM REACHING THE GROUND.

THE WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR GENERATING THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES CONVECTION
WILL BEGIN TO EJECT NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE DAY UNTIL THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...WHICH MAY HOLD HIGHS BACK
A BIT FROM CONSENSUS AGAIN SO CONTINUED THAT TREND.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PORTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

THE BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH WILL
LIFT NORTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. WHILE PLACEMENT VARIES A BIT
IN THE MODELS...THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS /INCLUDING THE NAM-GFS-
ECMWF-GEM/ ILLUSTRATE STRONG LLVL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO NOSE INTO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z THURSDAY...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES. AS THE
INVERTED TROUGH NOSES INTO THE AREA AND 600-700MB FRONTOGENESIS
SUPPLIES CONTINUED LIFT...WILL LIKELY SEE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ON THURSDAY FROM SOUTHERN MN ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. PRECIP AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES
APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS POINT...WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS SEEING
HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY
WILL BE HINDERED WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUDS/PRECIP...SO REDUCED
FORECAST HIGHS TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S RANGE.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO LINGER ON FRIDAY...BUT
NOTHING EXTREMELY ORGANIZED IS EXPECTED AS THE AREA REMAINS IN
BETWEEN THE EXITING TROUGH AND THE NEXT ONE IN LINE OVER THE
DAKOTAS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH IT ONLY APPEARS WORTHY OF LOW CHANCE POPS AT
THIS POINT GIVEN THE LACK OF ATTENDANT FORCING AT THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY...WITH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MODELS BRINGING
A STRONGER SYSTEM IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED
40-50 PERCENT POPS FOR NOW UNTIL TIMING IS MORE CERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND NORTHERN WI. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
LINGER BEHIND THE RAIN WHICH WILL PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING. EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT. LOOKING
AHEAD...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS IOWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
LIFT NORTHWARD FOR THURSDAY.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. THE RAIN HAS ALL BUT TAPERED OFF AT
KMSP. TIMING OF THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE AFTER 12Z THURSDAY
MORNING. THESE STORM COULD PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS...MOST NOTABLY
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR TSRA. WIND E-SE AT 5-10 KTS
FRI...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR/TSRA. WIND E AT 5-10 KTS
SAT...VFR. WIND NNW AT 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JRB






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