Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 131756

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1156 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017


Updated for the 18Z aviation discussion below.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 409 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

The surface trough is passing across the area this morning. For the
most part only areas along the northern/eastern periphery of this
feature have received measurable precipitation, with other areas
being too dry thus far. Continue to expect the majority of the
measurable precipitation to fall from north central MN across west
central WI (generally north of I-94), where some light freezing
precip and 1-3 inches of snow are possible. Given the potential for
a slick morning commute in these areas, decided to issue a Winter
Weather Advisory through early afternoon.

Eventually the rest of the area will see a better potential for
light precip as low level moisture (clouds) wrap around the backside
of the system. However at that time the threat for freezing precip
will be diminishing and the lift waning.

Over western Minnesota, the Wind Advisory looks to be in good shape.
Expect winds of 25-30 MPH with gusts up to 50 MPH at times. Given
the measurable snow is falling east of the area with the strongest
winds and the biggest impact should be the winds, have kept it as a
wind advisory.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 409 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

A relatively quiet end to the week lies ahead. A wave will pass
south across the Dakotas Thursday, keeping the best chance of
steady snow to our west. Cyclonic flow within the trough through
Friday will allow for plenty of clouds and scattered flurries,

A better organized clipper will develop Friday across southern
Canada. Like the last several, a narrow band of snow along and
north of the track could bring some accumulations mainly north of
I-94. Meanwhile, another trough over the northern Rockies may try
to phase with a cut off low over Mexico, bringing aggressive
moisture advection northward across the lower Mississippi Valley
into the Ohio Valley. Models currently depict the low getting
caught up in the strengthening southwesterly flow and shearing out
as it lifts quickly northeast. Additional energy remains back
over the Desert Southwest. If the energy from northern Mexico
phases with the trough approaching from the west, there could be a
big system over the center of the country this weekend. None of
the deterministic guidance is showing this currently, with the
progressive northern stream likely a culprit in orphaning energy
across the southwestern U.S. It`s something to watch nonetheless.

Temperatures through the forecast period will be above normal, but
there are signs in the extended guidance toward the weekend of
Christmas that arctic air could unload on the center of the


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1152 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

Pretty straightforward post-frontal setup for this time of year
with stratus expected to linger through the period and strong
northwest winds will continue through this afternoon. A weakening
gradient and decoupling of the atmosphere will allow winds to drop
to the 5-10 knot range tonight.

KMSP...Expect MVFR cigs for most of the next 30 hours, however
there could be a window after 00Z this evening that the low clouds
scatter out, but that is doubtful at this point.

Fri...Chc MVFR. Wind WSW 5-10 kts.
Sat...Chc MVFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
Sun...Chc MVFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.


MN...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ041-047-048-



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