010
FXUS64 KTSA 302347
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
647 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Line of showers and storms moving E-NE through E OK this
afternoon. Overall severe threat will remain low, though a few
strong to isolated marginally severe storms will remain possible
this afternoon, and into the early evening as this activity moves
into WC/NW AR.

Additional storms have begun to develop just west of the
OK/TX panhandles in association with an upper wave that will move
into the southern plains later tonight. Storms associated with this
feature will begin to impact western section of forecast area, most
likely after 06z. Most of the heavier rainfall that occurs tonight
through tomorrow is expected to remain south and east of the area, but
have opted for a Flood Watch that at this time will only include
Choctaw county and will be in effect from 7pm Thursday through 7pm Friday


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Showers and storms are expected to expand in coverage Friday morning,
but will favor highest PoPs across SE OK and NW AR in the morning, and
begin to lower PoPs from W-E in the afternoon as the upper wave continues
pushing to the east. Rain/storm chances will continue to diminish Friday
evening an overnight. Subsidence behind the departing wave should allow
for most if not all of Saturday to remain dry. Will maintain low PoPs
for Sunday as another weak wave passes through. Active pattern to
continue the middle of the next work week. However, a stronger
upper system diving into the midwest states may finally push a
cold front through the area which would give the area a break from
the unsettled pattern we have been locked into.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Periodic showers and a few thunderstorms will remain possible
through much of the forecast period, with KMLC and KFSM most
likely to see any significant impacts Friday morning. Ceilings
will lower to MVFR later tonight and remain MVFR, and possibly
even IFR at times, for the rest of the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  76  63  84 /  60  70  30  10
FSM   68  77  67  85 /  70  70  50  20
MLC   65  78  64  85 /  70  80  40  20
BVO   63  75  60  84 /  60  70  30  10
FYV   64  76  62  82 /  70  80  50  20
BYV   63  73  63  81 /  60  80  60  30
MKO   66  75  63  82 /  60  70  50  10
MIO   64  72  62  82 /  80  80  50  10
F10   64  76  62  83 /  60  70  30  10
HHW   65  78  65  83 /  70  80  40  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Friday evening for OKZ053.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...05