622
FXUS64 KTSA 170242
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
942 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 941 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

As of mid evening...a lead vort max to the parent low pressure
system...currently centered over far West Texas...continued to
move east northeast across far Eastern Texas. In response...the
majority of the associated precip to the lead vort max had
remained south and east of the CWA this evening. A few showers
remained in Northwest Arkansas...otherwise the majority of the CWA
was just partly to mostly cloudy. Underneath the clouds...temps
were in the 60s to low 70s with relative humidity values generally
greater than 85 percent.

Will continue to carry slight to low end chance showers/storms
for much of the CWA overnight as the upper low continues to
approach the region....though not anticipating a lot of storm
coverage. The greater potential overnight will be the development
of patchy/areas of fog across the CWA with light winds and all
the low level moisture already in place. Temps tonight should cool
slightly as dewpoints hold in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Forecast
low temps in the 60s should be common for most locations tonight.

Thus...for the evening update...have adjusted PoP/Wx grids based
on the mentioned above and tweaked the hourly rate of cooling
across the CWA tonight. Also added a mention of fog across the CWA
overnight tonight into Friday morning. Visibility should improve
through the morning hours...though shower/storm chances increase
with the low pressure system moving into the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

The upper level low will move overhead on Friday as an open wave.
Shear profiles will be poor, but the cooling upper levels and good
MUCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg will promote pop up showers and
thunderstorms, especially with any sun breaks. The main hazards
would be brief heavy rain, gusty wind, small hail, and lightning.
By Friday evening the upper level low will be east and lingering
precipitation should be on the way out.

Much warmer temperatures are expected Saturday-Monday as the upper
level ridge builds overhead. Temperatures will climb into the mid to
upper 80s. Considering that there should be decent low level
moisture with dew points in the mid 60s to low 70s, the heat index
will likely climb into the low 90s in spots (especially Sun-Mon),
making it feel a bit more like summer.

As early as Sunday, the influence of a building western USA trough
will begin to be felt across the area as a weak shortwave passes
just to the north of the area. With decent instability and shear,
but marginal forcing, it may be just enough to initiate a few
showers and storms near the KS border Sunday evening. The upper
level low will then pivot across the northern Plains Tuesday,
pushing a cold front through the forecast area. Considering ample
instability, moisture, and lift it is likely that showers and
thunderstorms will break out along the cold front. Upper level
flow will be anomalously strong with a powerful subtropical jet
nosing into the region Tuesday as the cold frontal forcing
arrives. Accordingly, severe thunderstorms appear to be possible
if not probable, though specific details are scarce given the lead
time and model uncertainties with the event. Ensemble guidance
suggests the best chance of stormy weather would be across the
southeast half of the area at this time, but models are often too
aggressive with their eastward motion of fronts this time of year,
so we will continue to need to watch this potential.

Wednesday will likely be quiet behind the system from Tuesday,
assuming current guidance holds, but another low moving into the
western US and then ejecting eastwards will increase rain/thunder
chances again Thursday-Friday next week. As confidence in timing
is low, mainly kept 15-30% PoPs each evening during this period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Ongoing isolated to scattered showers and storms across the local
region may linger into the overnight hours though coverage is
likely to remain low and terminals forecasts will carry vicinity
mention. Areas of lower ceilings and/or fog may develop overnight
largely dependent on how extensive mid and high cloud cover
remains. Any early morning flight restrictions should improve by
late morning or early afternoon with additional scattered showers
and storms tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  79  61  85 /  20  20  10   0
FSM   65  79  63  84 /  20  60  30  10
MLC   62  77  60  85 /  30  40  20  10
BVO   60  78  57  85 /  20  20  10   0
FYV   60  76  57  83 /  20  60  30  10
BYV   60  74  58  81 /  20  60  30  20
MKO   63  76  61  84 /  20  40  20  10
MIO   60  77  58  83 /  20  30  10  10
F10   62  77  60  84 /  20  40  10  10
HHW   63  77  62  83 /  40  40  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...07