144
AXNT20 KNHC 281746
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue May 28 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic along 23W, south of
12N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is observed where the wave meets the
ITCZ and mainly from 02N to 08N between 20W and 30W.

A second tropical wave is along 50W, south of 11N. The wave is
moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted mainly ahead of the wave axis from 04N
to 07N between 50W and 55W. This convective activity is affecting
parts of French Guiana and Suriname.

A tropical wave is moving westward at 10 to 15 knots across the
central Caribbean Sea. Its axis is along 74W, south of 21N,
extending across from the Turks and Caicos Islands across Haiti
into northern Colombia. Latest scatterometer data captured the
wind shift related to the wave axis as well as moderate to fresh
winds associated with it. This system continues to generate
some shower and thunderstorm activity over parts of Hispaniola and
regional waters. Moisture associated with this wave will continue
to spread into Jamaica and eastern Cuba through at least Wed. The
storm activity may produce gusty winds and locally heavy rain.
Please refer to your local weather office for more specific
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal
near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 08N20W to 05N30W. The
ITCZ extends from 05N30W to 04N40W to 05N49W. Most of the convective
activity across the area is associated with the tropical waves.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is clipping the far NE Gulf. A weak ridge dominates
most of the Gulf waters while a surface trough is analyzed W of
the Yucatan Peninsula. The pressure gradient between the ridge
and lower pressures over Texas and Mexico is resulting in mainly
gentle to moderate SE winds across most of the basin, with the
exception of light and variable winds over the NE Gulf. Seas are
3 to 5 ft W of 88W and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere. Hazy conditions due to
agricultural fires in Mexico persist across most of the western
Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche where dense concentration of
smoke is noted on the smoke graphic recently issued by SAB.
Visibilities are 3 nm or less across many observing sites along
the SW and western Gulf coast.

The above mentioned trough usually develops during the evening
hours over the Yucatan Peninsula and drifts westward over the SW
Gulf during the night and morning hours where it dissipates before
redeveloping again in the evening over the Yucatan Peninsula.

For the forecast, weak surface ridging will continue to dominate
across the Gulf through Sat. As a result, winds will be SE gentle
to moderate west of 87W through Thu, but become moderate to fresh
Wed evening through Sat night. A weak cold front will move across
the far NE Gulf today, followed by gentle W to NW winds. Otherwise,
fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse near the N and W portions
of the Yucatan peninsula during the late afternoons and at night
for the next several days. Haze west of 87W due to agricultural
fires over Central America and Mexico will continue for at least
the next couple of days. Visibilities will be 3 NM or less in the
SW Gulf of Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on the
tropical wave currently moving across the central Caribbean Sea.

The persistent upper-level trough continues to shift westward
across the western Caribbean. Its axis now extends from east-
central Cuba to near the Nicaragua/Honduras border. This feature
continues to transport abundant tropical moisture northward from
the SW Caribbean to across Hispaniola and into the Atlantic,
enhancing convection across the area. An area of numerous showers
and thunderstorms has developed ahead of the trough axis over the
SW Caribbean. This convective activity is reaching the coasts of
Costa Rica and Nicaragua. Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh
to strong winds in association with this convective activity,
particularly S of 15N and W of 80W. Gusty winds to near gale-force
are likely occurring. Low topped trade wind showers are noted
elsewhere, while a dense concentration of smoke persists over the
Gulf of Honduras due to agricultural fires over northern Central
America. Visibilities are 3 NM or less along the northern coast of
Honduras and the Bay Islands.

High pressure north of the Greater Antilles is promoting moderate
to fresh easterly trade winds over much of the eastern and central
Caribbean and also west of 84W. Seas in these waters are 4 to 6
ft, except 5 to 7 ft over the south-central Caribbean near the
coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong winds are noted in the vicinity
of the ABC Islands. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight
to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient between the
Bermuda High north of the area and lower pressure along N South
America will force fresh to strong trades over the S central
Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras through Wed. Winds will become
moderate to fresh Thu through the weekend. A tropical wave
currently over the central Caribbean is causing scattered showers
and thunderstorms as it moves slowly westward during the next
couple of days. Smoke from agricultural fires over Central America
is causing reduced visibilities over the Gulf of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are noted between the coast of Africa and the
Lesser Antilles. Please, read the Tropical Waves section for more
details.

A ridge dominates the Atlantic forecast waters E of 50W, anchored
by a 1026 mb high pressure system located E of the Azores near
37N19W. A surface trough extends from 31N65W to 20N60W. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are ahead of the trough affecting the
waters N of 28 between 45W and 50W. W of this trough another ridge
is observed extending towards the SE Bahamas and the Turks and
Caicos Islands. Recent satellite derived wind data indicate the
presence of a pre-frontal a trough just E of Florida generating
some shower and thunderstorm activity.

Gentle to moderate winds dominate most of the waters N of 20N
with seas of 3 to 5 ft while moderate to fresh trades are seen
across the tropical Atlantic with seas of 5 to 7 ft. The pressure
gradient slightly tightens just N of the Cabo Verde Islands
between the ridge and low pressures over W Africa. As a result, an
area of fresh to locally strong NE winds extends from the Cabo
Verde Islands to about 23N and E of 30W to the coast of W Africa.
Seas are 6 to 8 ft in this area.

For the forecast W of 55W, a 1029 mb Bermuda High is contributing
toward moderate or lighter winds across the basin, except for
moderate to fresh SW winds across the offshore zones N of 27N. The
moderate winds are due to a weak cold front forecast to emerge
from the SE United States coast tonight. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will accompany the front. The front will move
eastward toward the Greater Antilles later this week and into this
weekend, bringing moderate to fresh winds. Otherwise, winds and
seas away from the thunderstorms should remain quiescent for the
next few days across the forecast waters.

$$
GR