076
FXUS61 KBUF 251833
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
233 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region this afternoon with showers and
thunderstorms. Weak high pressure will then allow with fair weather
to return tonight with the finest weather of the weekend slated for
Sunday. Looking at the end of the long Memorial Day weekend...a
complex storm system over the Upper Great Lakes will support very
unsettled weather for Monday...including the potential for drenching
thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front in association with the mid-level trough will continue
to spawn showers and thunderstorms as it works from west to east
this afternoon and evening. With PWAT values near 1.5" any of the
stronger storms will be capable of producing torrential downpours,
frequent lightning and gusty winds. As we head towards sunset...the
strongest convection should be east of our area with clearing
beginning to take place over the far western counties. The residual
showers will continue to end from west to east throughout the
evening. This clearing...coming on the heels of fairly widespread
convection...could lead to some late night fog and stratus as we
push into the wee hours of Sunday morning.

Sunday...high pressure will quickly build into the region providing
clear skies and an overall fantastic day for outdoor activities.
With full sunshine on display in the afternoon temperatures should
easily peak in the mid 70s to low 80s in spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The pattern become amplified as an upper level trough digs into the
Mid-Western States and Upper Great Lakes region Sunday night into
Memorial Day. A warm front that extends from surface low pressure
over Illinois will move from south to north across the forecast
area. A plume of GOMEX moisture will move into the region with PWATS
over the 90th percentile for this time of year. The first wave of
showers will be associated with the nose of a 40kt low level jet.
The showers will move through the forecast area late Sunday night
into Monday morning. There will likely be a break across western NY
Monday morning, however destablization will occur with daytime
heating and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. There are hints of a
prefrontal trough across western NY Monday afternoon, as well as an
approaching cold front as the surface low moves into northern lower
Michigan. Relatively strong mid-level flow will be present as a
shortwave trough becomes negatively tilted to our northwest.
Conditions are favorable for organized convection and some strong to
severe thunderstorms. This activity will then move northeast across
the Finger Lakes region and into north central NY into Monday
evening. There is a Day 3 Marginal Risk out for the area. The moist
airmass will also make for torrential downpours and isolated
flooding can`t be ruled out. Rainfall amounts may exceed an inch
especially east-southeast of Lake Ontario. There will likely be
drier air in the mid-levels across western NY which may limit
rainfall amounts.

The cold front will move across the region Monday night. Overall,
showers and storms will end from west to east across the region,
however moisture lingers behind the departing system. Showers will
remain possible into Tuesday morning. The upper level trough will
become nestled over the Great Lakes region Tuesday. A series of
shortwave troughs will round the base of the trough across the Upper
Midwest region and Ohio Valley. Cool air aloft during daytime
heating and lift from the approaching trough will support low to
medium chances for showers and a few thunderstorms across the region
Tuesday afternoon into evening. The next shortwave trough and cold
front will approach Tuesday night and support another period of
showers overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An upper level trough will be across the eastern Great Lakes region
Wednesday through Thursday. There will be multiple shortwave troughs
that rotate cyclonically around the parent low and bring periods of
unsettled weather. Thunderstorms are possible especially in the
afternoon into early evening. The trough will move east through the
end of the week and cooler air will filter into the region into
Friday. Surface high pressure will move into the region for the
weekend resulting in moderate confidence of fair and dry weather
Friday to Saturday.

Temperatures will start out below normal Wednesday and Thursday and
increase to near to above normal Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Showers and storms will bring at times lower Cigs and Vsbys to area
terminals as a cold from works from west to east across the CWA this
afternoon and evening. Otherwise...expect VFR conditions outside of
the showers and storms.

Tonight...high pressure will begin to build into the region behind
the cold front with VFR. clearing skies will also lead to some areas
of fog and stratus resulting in fairly widespread MVFR to IFR
weather through daybreak Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday...Improving to VFR.
Monday...Restrictions likely with showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday and Wednesday...Restrictions possible with showers.
Thursday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front crossing the lakes will continue to bring showers and
storms this afternoon into this evening. Some of the stronger storms
could produce gusty winds and frequent lightning. Winds outside of
the storms will generally be light with minimal wave action. Behind
the cold frontal passage tonight winds turn east-northeasterly
generally under 10 knots Sunday...as high pressure will briefly
build across the lower Great Lakes.

More notable winds will occur on Monday into Tuesday with increasing
southerly winds early Monday taking on a more west-southwesterly
component Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Winds could nudge into the
15 to 25 knots range with possible small craft headlines needed
during this time period. Scattered gusty thunderstorms will also be
possible Monday.

Boaters should continue to monitor the forecast, especially given
the holiday weekend which will likely increase boating activity.
This will especially be the case on Monday as conditions on the
lower Great Lakes will likely deteriorate.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR