487
ACUS01 KWNS 110531
SWODY1
SPC AC 110530

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
TEXAS CENTERED ON THE EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are possible across portions of Texas
centered on the Edwards Plateau. Hail and gusty winds are the
primary threats.

...Texas...

Weak upper low is currently centered near the NM/TX border northwest
of LBB. This feature is forecast to drift southeast during the day1
period which will ensure a belt of modest 500mb northwesterly flow
will stretch across much of west into south-central Texas. Low-level
flow will remain weak ahead of this feature and any notable surface
boundaries are not evident at this time for potential convective
concentration. However, some boundary-layer heating is expected just
downstream of the digging trough and this should contribute to
destabilization such that robust convection is possible as surface
temperatures warm through the 80s. While forecast instability is not
expected to be particularly strong (MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg), ample
surface-6km bulk shear should contribute to some multi cell storm
organization and a few supercells. Gusty winds and hail are the
primary risks during the afternoon/evening hours.

...Elsewhere...

A few strong storms are expected along the Front Range of the
Rockies from northeast NM into central CO. A few strong storms may
also develop ahead of a short-wave trough over the upper MS Valley
region where gusty winds and marginally severe hail could be noted.
A few robust storms may also evolve along the coastal middle
Atlantic from southeast VA into eastern NC. In each of these regions
the severe threat appears too limited to warrant more than a MRGL
risk for wind/hail.

..Darrow/Weinman.. 06/11/2024

$$