Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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123 ACUS01 KWNS 101242 SWODY1 SPC AC 101241 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF GA/SC...THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected across parts of the central and northern High Plains. Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are also expected across portions of the Southeast where hail/wind are possible. ...GA/SC... Morning surface analysis shows a surface cold front sagging slowly southward across central GA and far southern SC. A moist low-level airmass is present in vicinity of the boundary, where substantial daytime heating will lead to a corridor of moderate CAPE by early afternoon. Most model guidance is in agreement that scattered thunderstorms will form along or just behind the front, tracking eastward and offshore by early evening. Low-level winds are strongly veered and rather weak, but fast westerly flow aloft will promote a few organized/supercell storms capable of damaging winds and hail. ...WY/NE/Dakotas... Water vapor imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough over western MT. This feature will track eastward today, with an associated surface boundary becoming established from western ND into eastern WY. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will form along this boundary in a relatively moist and moderately unstable environment. Forecast soundings show steep mid-level lapse rates, veering low-level wind fields, and strong effective shear supportive of supercell storms capable large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is possible. Other more isolated but intense cells may form in the deeply-mixed boundary layer farther west across northern WY as well. ...West TX... A slow-moving southern stream shortwave trough over southern NM will result in strengthening westerly mid-level winds across parts of West TX today. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along a southeastward moving surface front over eastern NM by mid-afternoon and track across West TX through the evening. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates coupled with rather strong winds aloft will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells. Given the consistent signal in recent CAM solutions, have added a small SLGT for this scenario. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/10/2024 $$